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#41
03-29-2005, 11:40 AM
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Re: Downswings (no hand content)
[ QUOTE ]
Diablo just said in another thread that he examines his bad runs and finds himself playing bad during the later stages of them [/ QUOTE ] Playing poorly because you've been getting your good hands sucked out is dramatically different than saying that the poker gods are frowning on you and you need to stop playing until they are smiling again. 
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#42
03-29-2005, 11:43 AM
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Re: Downswings (no hand content)
You know...there's a line in Rounders where Matt Damon is quoting Doyle Brunson (I think), where he talks about how players never seem to remember the big hands that helped them build their BR, but the remember with remarkable accuracy the bad beats in their career that broke them.
Last night I ran 10BB/100 in my session. However, when I went to bed, all I could think about was the hand from my "Chip Spewing 201" post this morning. I dreamed about it, and it was the first thing on my mind when I woke up this morning....guess that's how it is.
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#43
03-29-2005, 11:43 AM
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Re: Downswings (no hand content)
[ QUOTE ]
If you're running bad, have been getting cracked repeatedly and feel like nothing is going your way, how is taking a break tilting? [/ QUOTE ] This makes sense. [ QUOTE ] I've learned to recognize the sessions where I'm guaranteed to be doomed and just shut down. When you're losing bad, it doesn't matter what cards you get or what you do, you're going to continue to lose. It's re-distribution time. [/ QUOTE ] This is a form of tilt.
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#44
03-29-2005, 11:44 AM
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Re: Downswings (no hand content)
[ QUOTE ]
When you're playing 4 tables at the same time online, and have jumped around to maybe 4 others, and you're AA and KK are losing at every one, you simply won't win. It's your turn in the barrel. [/ QUOTE ] This is absurd.
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#46
03-29-2005, 11:46 AM
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Re: Standard deviation gives us the correct answer...
[ QUOTE ]
Assumptions: ... There is a 68% chance you will be within 1 standard deviation of expectation and a 98% chance you will be within 2 standard deviations. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think this assumption is correct. It is true only if your winnings on each hand follows a normal distribution. It doesn't. For example, one of the necessary conditions for a normal distribution is that if you have some chance of winning x BB on a hand, you have the same chance of losing x BB on the hand. That, of course, is not true-- when you lose a hand you are likely to lose, say, 1/2 - 3 BB while when you win you are likely to win many BB.... Think of that curve that's in all the statistics text books-- the right side looks exactly like the left side because the values on the right side are exactly as likely as the corresponding values on the left side. If we were playing a game where I flipped a coin and paid you $2 if it were heads and nothing happened if it were tails, you could never lose money. You would have an expected value of $1 and a standard deviation of $1. You would not have a 98% chance of falling between -$1 and +$3 ($1-2*$1 and $1+2*$1). You would have a 98% chance (and 60% chance and 80% chance and 100% chance...) of getting $0 or $2. To determine the likelihood of any given swing in poker, we first need to determine what kind of distribution we're working with. I'm not sure how one goes about doing that, but that's what we need to do.
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#47
03-29-2005, 11:46 AM
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Re: Downswings (no hand content)
[ QUOTE ]
Flame away if you like, but I don't care what SSH says about your brain playing tricks on you. When you're playing 4 tables at the same time online, and have jumped around to maybe 4 others, and you're AA and KK are losing at every one, you simply won't win. It's your turn in the barrel. [/ QUOTE ] Do the words "independent events" mean anything to you?
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#49
03-29-2005, 11:52 AM
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Re: Downswings (no hand content)
[ QUOTE ]
My favorite line from that movie is when Joe asks Knish how he's doing, "the same." - Jim [/ QUOTE ] I agree 100% It is one of the best deliveries of a line in film history. I'm talking "Frankly, Scarlet, I don't give a damn" good.
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