My bust hand from Sunday's PokerStars $500K guaranteed

[JC_Saves]

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yeah, you're right. Im a bad player who pushes a lot and gets lucky. With the way I play, I'll never win anything. Oh, wait, I've won a lot.

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This comment right here is pretty sad, MLG, and borders on the incredibly egotiscal. I know you are a young man so I will let it go as that abundance of confidence that you surely have based on the fact that you have been successful.


I did not say you are a bad player. You have had some very nice successes, but what I said about last Sunday's Stars tourney was exactly right on, because I watched you make comment after comment about how that was a terrible call or you couldn't believe you could suck out so many times in an hour's time.

I said what hands you could be up against AA, AK KK, QQ and any Pair to 77. The point of all this is that there is no reason to make wild assumptions about this before SOLID player that because somehow now that he won a few pots with SOLID holdings that he is somehow going to be loose with his raises.

I said I would call. I seriously doubt that I would fold this preflop unless I knew more about the people yet to act and everyone's stack size. THere is no justification for going all in here. I think it was Harrington that said, "the All-in bet is an ameteur move".

The reason is simple, why put everything at risk if you do not have to. You have plenty of chips not to play this hand fast.
Never bet more than you need to in order to accomplish what you are looking to do. Here the all-in is clearly wrong. Why risk your tournament at this stage in this situation? Yes, you could win the hand right there, but the times he calls with the hands I believe would call, you are easily dominated.

You want analysis okay try this. with this range of hands AA-66, AKs-ATs, AKo-AJo you are 55 to 45 basically. So why would you want to be putting all your money in on a coin flip that you are behind on. Would he call with some of these holdings, maybe if he believe your over the top bet is just an attempt to steal the pot.

I think that range of hands above is too broad for our sold player. So it is more likely that it is something like AA-66, AKs-AQs, AKo and maybe not even PP below 99, but give the above you are 63 to 37 dog. Again, is this really where you want to shove all your money into the middle? Again could he call since he has you dominated and could believe you are attempting a steal with your all-in bet?

It just seems that over the top aggression is advocated alot of times in this forum in situation where it just is not the best move.

I guess maybe I don't get it. Maybe that is the only way to win a tournament is by just going all-in everytime you think that you just might have the best hand, and when you bust out just say oh well and hope that the next one you don't. I mean if you win the Sunday tournament one time, you can spend a lot of time making moves like this and busting out, because you can afford to just keep signing up for more.


This is not a cash game where you can say over time I will average it all out and be a winner. Lose your stack and you are done. Don't get involved in a hand against someone that can bust you if you don't have to. These are sayings in Sklansky and Harrington books. Obviously if you have a good hand you would play it against a bigger stack, especially a loose stack, but that does not mean that you should throw caution to the win either.

I think you are obviously a very very good player, but I think that there are several ways to play and always advocating the aggressive shove the chips to the middle because you only have to win 40% of the time is wrong. The fact is you have to win that hand 100% of the time when up against big stack or you are done.

Lastly, I do not mean to impugn anyone here. I am trying to learn to get better from all that have gone before me, but when I see hands like this one where the successful people advocate shoving the chips in, it is very confusing in light of the consensus in Harrington and Sklansky teachings.

Oh, by the way, MLG, I love your posts and your insights and your hand histories. I was not picking on you, your style, or your advice in a derrogatory manner. And I hope that you do not take it as such.

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[fnurt]

You didn't mention the fact that Harrington is talking about a raise from early position, as opposed to this post which is about a probable steal from CO+1.

[woodguy]

ty

[TxSteve]

for me; it is a push every time.

based on the read of the player; i can't believe the small range of hands some people are putting him on.

I would guess that it is very likely you are ahead here to start the hand most of the time.

I don't know if you ran into a monster; or got sucked out on; but I think most of the time you are ahead because of his range of raising hands with a huge stack opening in CO+1

[ansky451]

Sentences that I am starting to really really hate:

sentence #1 "Why risk all your chips here?"
WAA WAA. Its a 3000 person tournament, dont expect to have the best of it 100% of the time you are all in. This idea of "risking your tournament life" is such a retarded cliche with no real meaning. You are "risking" your tournament life because you want to double up, you know you wont go deep without getting very lucky, simply because of the steep structure, and because he might fold. This is similar to a semi bluff, you are giving yourself another way to win the pot.

sentence #2: "I can outplay him on the flop better than i can outplay him preflop" There is little "outplaying" with less than 20 bbs.

sentence #3: "Dan harrington says bla bla bla" I have a great respect for his books and advice, but wow people are mis-quoting him a lot lately. Sometimes there is slightly different pieces of info in a hand, that although is subtle, is crucial for making the right decision. A lot of the advice Dan gives is for deeper stacks then we are acustomed to online. You cant just say "well dan said that." You actually have to know why he said it and what his/your reasoning is.

I PUSH.

Ranting is fun.

[MLG]

I'll start up front by saying I'm a sucker for letting myself get roped into this.

[ QUOTE ]
I did not say you are a bad player. You have had some very nice successes, but what I said about last Sunday's Stars tourney was exactly right on, because I watched you make comment after comment about how that was a terrible call or you couldn't believe you could suck out so many times in an hour's time.


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In the tournament in question, I got very lucky in the space of an hour. However, given all those suckouts there was only one hand I feel I made a mistake on, the hand where I reraised with AQ and then called a third players push getting 1.7/1.8:1. Even that mistake was marginal. Do not mistake sucking out with making a mistake. There are plenty of times when you make the right play but still get your money in with the worst of it, that's poker.

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You want analysis okay try this. with this range of hands AA-66, AKs-ATs, AKo-AJo you are 55 to 45 basically. So why would you want to be putting all your money in on a coin flip that you are behind on. Would he call with some of these holdings, maybe if he believe your over the top bet is just an attempt to steal the pot.

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This is not solid analysis, this is the first step. Next you need to estimate which of those hands he will call a push with. Then you need to assess how many chips you win the times he folds preflop, and what percentage of time you double-up when you are called. Also, you may not be open raising with hands like KQ/KJ/A10/A9 and others from LP when you are a big stack and thats probably a mistake. What's definitely a mistake is assuming that none of your opponents do. The range of hands your presenting (which I might add you are still a favorite over) is comically small.

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Oh, by the way, MLG, I love your posts and your insights and your hand histories. I was not picking on you, your style, or your advice in a derrogatory manner. And I hope that you do not take it as such.


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I do understand you are not trying to pick on me personally. What you are doing, however, is misapplying platitudes that you've taken out of context from books, and when you perceive a player contradicting those platitudes dismissing the player and his advice instead of examining your own understanding. Learn how to do the full analysis and I promise you will become a better player for it.

General Question, how fast do the blinds go up in this tourney? If it's like most internet tourneys, you really don't have much time before you get blinded out.. need to act on your good hands and be decisive..

I would definitely push.. you are <10 times the pot size, and AQo is a good hand even after min raise.. as alluded to, there are only a few hands that are dominating you and you may even win the pot without a showdown.

And for everyone referring to Harrington, those reccommendations are generally for 1.) playing against tight players, 2.) Blinds and antes are low compared to stack, 3.) Stacks are roughly the same.. Under these circumstances, I'd push.. you will hit an AK 1 in 110 hands.. AA/KK/QQ 1 in 220 respectively.. so this might be ur best hand and best situation for a longgg time

[JC_Saves]

Thanks MLG for those comments. and I totally agree, the term suckout is incorrect. I agree totally that you could play a hand perfectly and still be behind when the cards are flipped over. So please forgive me on that point. The AQ hand was the real hand that I was referencing.

Do you believe that given online tournaments that you have to make this type of push in order to be successful? Is it all about hoping that you do get called by someone making a mistake taht you are counting on? or are really just hoping that he folds and you scoop it right then?

I am trying to get better and have not quite mastered the go for broke pull the trigger in all the situations I should. I am fully aware of this flaw in my game. I guess the real dilemna for me is determining when those moments are and pushing them in.

I was just in a big MTT and had a chance to double up with a set of 5s on the flop and a board of 653, and I bet out 3/4 of the pot into the SB and he called and everyone else folded. I was MP2. on a K turn I bet about little over 1/2 the pot again and he put me all in for about 2x my bet. I am sure that you would not have hesitated and pushed all in, but I did hesitate and could only see him having the straight, when I should have thought he paired the board with his K and thought I had a worse hand.

I know that recognizing the moments when you are in the position to make a move to double up is critical, and I have gotten a lot better in the last month calling other peoples attempts to blow me off a pot, but it still is a learning process for sure.

I guess I am not quick enough yet at determining all the possiblities of hands that they could play a certain way yet.

thanks for the advice

[woodguy]

MLG,

If poker doesn't work out as a career, you have a solid future in politics or upper management. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Regards,
Woodguy

[PrayingMantis]

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THere is no justification for going all in here. I think it was Harrington that said, "the All-in bet is an ameteur move".

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No offence, but you don't understand MTT poker at all. Also, Harrington's quote (if he did actually say that) is way way out of any context.

This is an easy push, and this thread is full with absolutely ridiculous posts.

What I find most amzing, is that people who advocate not pushing here, are in fact the same people who at the end of the day must rely much MORE on pure luck in order to get far in such a MTT, than people who push here, and yet, the first ones think that pushing here is amateurish...

Well, that's another paradoxical aspect of poker I guess.