UB 5/10 NL river decision

[Marnixvdb]

Ray, very interesting question. Intuitively I'd say folding when having a better chance of winning than 33% will cost you more than calling with a worse chance, because of the money that is already in the pot.

the key reference points are:

If the chance of winning is 33%, calling or folding yields the same result and therefore we should call for metagame reasons

the maximum error of calling is $720 (calling with 0% chance of winning) whereas the maximum error of folding is $1440 (folding with 100% chance of winning).

Therefore, without (enough) info on how likely we are to win this hand, we should call.

Of course there is some info on how likely we are to win this hand. Matt put it at app. 30%. So given the fact that it's an estimate that could be off either ways, we should probably still call (depending on margin of error).

Marnix

[Matt Flynn]

[Sidenote: answer to Ray's Socratic question:

assuming straight odds of y:1 for every percentage increment x below the breakeven point i lose [y/(y+1)]x if i call when i should fold. for every percentage increment x above breakeven i lose [(y+1)/y]x if i fold when i should call.

in this example taking the hand in isolation offering 2:1 for my call, each percent below 33 1/3% costs me 2/3 of a percent of the pot and each percent above 33 1/3% costs me 1.5% if i make the wrong action.

that is why is big limit pots (say 19 big bets with 1 bet to you in a semi-hopeless situation and you closing the action - i.e., getting 19:1 exactly) the breakeven point is not when you estimate your opponent will bet with a hand weaker than yours 5% of the time. it's actually lower - often significantly lower depending on the situation - because your estimate has error. error on the side of not calling will have a longer theoretical tail and much higher weighting and will cost you a lot more than error on the calling side. hence another (if minor) reason why you should call a ton in big limit pots when closing the action for one bet on the river.

/end sidenote]


Ray,

in that game i do not think it is close to 30%. i would say 20-25% is a better range for all non-nit river comers. over all players i would say easily under 20%. i am willing to call with somewhat less than 1:2 because of the value in being perceived as less bluffable (especially for big bets), for the tilt value of busting someone on a bad bluff, and for the error weighting that you point out.

How much would you lead for on the river? i am curious because I do a lot of "underbetting" in the 1/3 - 2/3 pot range and it seems to work very well for me with my relatively aggressive game in the smaller stakes.

matt

[Ray Zee]

remember this is a four handed game.

i would have bet the pot and been happy to call the raise on the end. or bet less so that my bet looked weak so if he raised my call which i planned to do would have more positive results. with the expectation of seeing anything from trips to a straight or a flush or a full house. i wouldnt be so inclined to expect a bigger flush as the four of spades came. remember he bet the hand on the flop.

if you fold here with so little of a read by the slow action do you tend to fold in the future with good hands just because someone raises on the end. i cant see it.
if its a player that doesnt bet hard without a monster than sure but we werent told that.

[Yeti]

I think tons of people in this thread are underestimating how very, very rare river bluff-raises are, online at least.

Or how rare it is to get raised on the river by a legitimate hand which you can beat here.

I think it's an easy fold.

[RYL]

[ QUOTE ]
I think tons of people in this thread are underestimating how very, very rare river bluff-raises are, online at least.

Or how rare it is to get raised on the river by a legitimate hand which you can beat here.

I think it's an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're underestimating how rare runner runner flushes are, moreso in NL.

[LuvDemNutz]

I think Villain's range of hands is far too wide to fold this.

I call and expect to drag it about half the time.