#41
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Re: 10% refund question
[ QUOTE ]
Yoshi, When I play craps or blackjack in a Vegas Casino I get back 40% of my projected losses in comps. Yet that doesn't make the casino table games +EV. So to answer your question as to where the percentage lays I know it must be greater than 40%. Right? Keep in mind I get that whether I win or lose. [/ QUOTE ] Hi Jimbo, sure, if you play enough then 40% rebate will still be -EV. I'm just saying that how much rebate you need to make it a breakeven game depends on how many hands you plan to play there during each rebate period. If you play infinite hands per rebate period, the rebate you need approaches 100%. If you play one hand per rebate period, the % rebate you need should be pretty low, definitely lower than 10%, as some people have calculated above. So for your situation, (I am guessing that) the casino will make sure you play too many hands for 40% rebate to make you +EV. A player that plays a couple hands a month is surely not going to get the same rebate a regular player like yourself would. So to summarize, my only real point is that if you play below a certain number of hands per rebate period at 10% rebate, you will be a +EV player. I hope we can all agree on that. |
#42
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Re: 10% refund question
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So to summarize, my only real point is that if you play below a certain number of hands per rebate period at 10% rebate, you will be a +EV player. I hope we can all agree on that. [/ QUOTE ] Prett much everyone BUT Jimbo can agree on this... Acme |
#43
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Re: 10% refund question
This works a lot like a sticky bonus. It can be +EV, but you have to be careful.
You should set a stop-loss and a stop-win, and make large bets when between these values. Suppose you win 1 unit with probability .495, and lose with probability .505. Suppose you set a stop-loss of L and a stop-win of W. The probability of winning W units is (c^L - 1)/(c^(L+W)-1), where c=.505/.495~1.0202. The probability of losing L*9/10 units is (c^(L+W)-c^(L))/(c^(L+W)-1). (Derivation.) The optimum occurs at L=3, W=3, where the EV is +0.0645 units. The EV is positive for any L,W adding up to 10 or less, and negative for L+W>10. |
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