just don't get it

[KaneKungFu123]

its bad but not unbelievable bad...

[ QUOTE ]
5-10 NL on UB recently.

having played a while, i and villian are both at about 2k. UTG + 2, i get
9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]call
villian calls along with button, 5 players to flop:

8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]j [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]q: [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

checks to villian who moves all in for over 2k into a $50 pot! obviously instacall to see him turn over

a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

he added insult to injury by adding a k to his low [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the turn.

i am now simply venting after beginning the post wondering if he had some sort of deep poker insight i wasn't privvy to. i am just amazed by someone who seemed to be saavy making such an unbelievably bad play and getting paid off.

[/ QUOTE ]

[BarronVangorToth]

[ QUOTE ]
if he had some sort of deep poker insight i wasn't privvy to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously it stinks to lose thousands on a hand where you flopped the nuts - but given his hand and the board, you were ONLY a very slight lead on the flop and it was pretty close to 50/50. It'd be even closer to 50/50 if you didn't have the backdoor flush draw.

You had the best of it and you made the +EV move, so you certainly didn't make an error, if that's what you're worried about.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

[mosta]

[ QUOTE ]
This post subsumes nothing beyond sour grapes. To purport otherwise is impudent.

[/ QUOTE ]

you should trade in your thesaurus for a dictionary.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
space, the thing that was annoying about the post was that he acts as if the hand was played face up and he only had one potential caller to attend to.

[/ QUOTE ]
You, and many other people, have made numerous comments on this thread that suggest you don't understand the odds. It's pretty annoying to read so many ignorant comments.

A double gutshot straight draw plus the nut flush draw is not much of an underdog against anything. It is usually a huge favorite in a multiway pot. You say a set, a straight, and perhaps two pair might call. Do you realize this hand is a big favorite (over 33% equity) over two straights, two sets, or a set and two pair?

[ QUOTE ]
easily could have been 2pr or a set as well, at which point his odds of winning don't look so bright.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wrong.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=899955
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 0.495
Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.505

AT would be a slight favorite over the other two pair hands. It would still be better to push them out, though. It would be very valuable to push out bottom set, which would be a 60:40 favorite.

[ QUOTE ]
his best shot was to HOPE someone calls with the nut flush and he gets all his money in with a coinflip.

[/ QUOTE ]
Nonsense.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=899960
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 0.433
Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 0.518
J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.049

AT would average a win of about $600 against two sets with deep stacks.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=899963
Ac Tc 0.359
Qs Qd 0.356
Td 9d 0.286

AT is even a slight favorite against a set and a straight.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=899966
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 0.480
T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 0.285
T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 0.235

AT is a huge favorite over two straights.

I don't agree with the push. It didn't make use of position, and it isn't so unlikely to be called by one set. However, the situations you mention are not arguments against pushing.

[Rotating Rabbit]

lol

[Komodo]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar till:</font><hr />
</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar till:</font><hr />
space, the thing that was annoying about the post was that he acts as if the hand was played face up and he only had one potential caller to attend to.

[/ QUOTE ]
You, and many other people, have made numerous comments on this thread that suggest you don't understand the odds. It's pretty annoying to read so many ignorant comments.

A double gutshot straight draw plus the nut flush draw is not much of an underdog against anything. It is usually a huge favorite in a multiway pot. You say a set, a straight, and perhaps two pair might call. Do you realize this hand is a big favorite (over 33% equity) over two straights, two sets, or a set and two pair?

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar till:</font><hr />
easily could have been 2pr or a set as well, at which point his odds of winning don't look so bright.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wrong.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=899955
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 0.495
Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.505

AT would be a slight favorite over the other two pair hands. It would still be better to push them out, though. It would be very valuable to push out bottom set, which would be a 60:40 favorite.

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar till:</font><hr />
his best shot was to HOPE someone calls with the nut flush and he gets all his money in with a coinflip.

[/ QUOTE ]
Nonsense.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=899960
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 0.433
Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 0.518
J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 0.049

AT would average a win of about $600 against two sets with deep stacks.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=899963
Ac Tc 0.359
Qs Qd 0.356
Td 9d 0.286

AT is even a slight favorite against a set and a straight.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=899966
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 0.480
T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 0.285
T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 0.235

AT is a huge favorite over two straights.

I don't agree with the push. It didn't make use of position, and it isn't so unlikely to be called by one set. However, the situations you mention are not arguments against pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont like your arguments at all. First the chance of getting two callers with a 2000$ bet into a 50$ pot is practically zero. So all calling hands will be a 60-40 or 50-51% favourite.

Secondly the three-way hands you points to where AT is favourite is possible of course, but extremely unlikely.
9T nut straigth vs 9T nut straigth is highly unusual. I only seen that once, and add the parlay of A double gutshot straight draw plus the nut flush draw. Must be one in a million or so.

[morello]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm never very eager to toss a coin for 2K. It could have been even worse if he had the 9T of clubs to freeroll on you.

If I know villian to be a capable and thinking player, I lay down the nuts in that situation (have done it many times in Omaha). I lay down not because I fear the pure nuts, 9/T of clubs, but rather because I fear I may be up against a hand I'm flipping a coin with. Lose the money you limped in with and keep playing.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
But without the chance that he misclick or bet by accident, I'm folding.


[/ QUOTE ]

"lul"

If you're not willing to play a "coinflip" (with the nuts), you need to move down in limits.

[SwordFish]

[ QUOTE ]
Ac Tc 0.480
Ts 9s 0.285
Td 9d 0.235

AT is a huge favorite over two straights

[/ QUOTE ]


This is not true.

Having a higher equity over each individual straight does not change the fact that AT is a slight dog to win the hand.


http://twodimes.net/h/?z=899966
pokenum -h ac tc - ts 9s - td 9d -- qc js 8c

Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Js Qc 8c

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Tc 421 46.62 444 49.17 38 4.21 0.480
Ts 9s 45 4.98 421 46.62 437 48.39 0.285
Td 9d 0 0.00 466 51.61 437 48.39 0.235


SF

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ac Tc 0.480
Ts 9s 0.285
Td 9d 0.235

AT is a huge favorite over two straights

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not true.

Having a higher equity over each individual straight does not change the fact that AT is a slight dog to win the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
To be a favorite in a 3-way pot means you win more than your fair share of 33.3%. It does not mean you win more than 50%. If you put in $2000, and two other poeple put in $2000 each, and you win the pot 48.0% of the time, this is a very favorable situation. You get back $2904, for a profit of about $900.

Every dollar going into the pot returns $1.45. By contrast, if you have AKs against a random hand preflop, every dollar you put in returns $1.34.

[SwordFish]

[ QUOTE ]
If you put in $2000, and two other poeple put in $2000 each, and you win the pot 48.0% of the time, this is a very favorable situation.

[/ QUOTE ]


Obviously getting all the money in in this situation is +ev


I misunderstood what you were saying. I thought you were stating it was a favorite to win the hand outright. My mistake.



SF