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#42
02-09-2005, 12:08 PM
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Re: Did I play this too fast?
my huge ass essay post has specifically this point: there is no [censored] way that UTG+1 has JJ 1/4 times. 1/10 is a good number (possibly even on the high side, and I stand by it until convinced otherwise by good arguments or bribery [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].
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#45
02-09-2005, 12:12 PM
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Re: Did I play this too fast?
[ QUOTE ]
please elaborate [/ QUOTE ] Maybe I'm underestimating the % of times 8's will hold up here but I don't think Hero has enough equity to make this bet. I think if everyone calls, it's a thin equity bet at best IMO.
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#46
02-09-2005, 12:23 PM
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Re: Did I play this too fast?
I calculated that hero is hitting the river 27% of the time here. I don't think that more than 1 person will fold here, given the pretty draw heavy board. Everybody has odds to draw to their gutshots and flushes and low pairs (not pp) and I think that everybody is calling here often enough to make it worthwhile to bet. Even if somebody folds, we have a + EV edge with our draws (albeit paper thin). None of my calculations took into consideration when the single pair of 8s is actually good, as I think most people will agree it's fairly minimal.
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#47
02-09-2005, 12:30 PM
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Re: Did I play this too fast?
[ QUOTE ]
I calculated that hero is hitting the river 27% of the time here. I don't think that more than 1 person will fold here, given the pretty draw heavy board. Everybody has odds to draw to their gutshots and flushes and low pairs (not pp) and I think that everybody is calling here often enough to make it worthwhile to bet. Even if somebody folds, we have a + EV edge with our draws (albeit paper thin). None of my calculations took into consideration when the single pair of 8s is actually good, as I think most people will agree it's fairly minimal. [/ QUOTE ] If one person folds, then it's an -EV bet no?
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#48
02-09-2005, 12:34 PM
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Re: Did I play this too fast?
you have 27% to hit your hand. If everybody stays, you are putting in 20% of the money. If 1 folds, then you are putting in 25% of the money. As I said...paper thin, but I think this is right.
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#49
02-09-2005, 12:35 PM
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Re: Did I play this too fast?
[ QUOTE ]
you have 27% to hit your hand. If everybody stays, you are putting in 20% of the money. If 1 folds, then you are putting in 25% of the money. As I said...paper thin, but I think this is right. [/ QUOTE ] By the turn there's 4 players only.
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