Ever fold KK preflop?

[tiltaholic]

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Do you really think you should conclude that the coin is weighted... only when you're holding it?

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I like that, very good analogy.

Now, I don't believe it's weighted for me only. Well, maybe a little bit [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] <just kidding>. However, there is also a probability associated with how many times a head will come up in a row.

2 heads: 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4.

And so on. So if I hit 5 heads in a row, well, the probability of that is very small. And the probability of 6 heads in a row is even smaller. Granted, each event is a unique event, but they can also be viewed jointly.

So if I was a gambling man, and I had 15 heads in a row, the probability of 16th head is still 1/2. But I know over the long hall, to even out, I'm gonna have to go on a streak of tails only to even this out. So at some point, you could shift your betting to "tails only", and come out ahead. Now granted, if you just bet on "heads only" or "tails only", you should be dead even at the end. But if you could pick up on when variance occurs and you hit a run of heads or tails, you could actually come out head. Hard part is: how do you know when you're in a run of heads or tails until after the fact?

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this is another way of stating the gambler's fallacy.

[milesdyson]

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So if I was a gambling man, and I had 15 heads in a row, the probability of 16th head is still 1/2. But I know over the long hall, to even out, I'm gonna have to go on a streak of tails only to even this out. So at some point, you could shift your betting to "tails only", and come out ahead. Now granted, if you just bet on "heads only" or "tails only", you should be dead even at the end. But if you could pick up on when variance occurs and you hit a run of heads or tails, you could actually come out head. Hard part is: how do you know when you're in a run of heads or tails until after the fact?

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bolded part is completely wrong. i can't believe you think this.

the "long haul" does not care what the first x amount of coin flips were.

edit: okay i guess i was a bit late in this, but hey.

[Shillx]

I folded KK a few times preflop when I 1st started playing. I was pretty much an instinctual player at the time and didn't really think much about implied odds and such. Were they good folds? Maybe but then again maybe not. Let me give you a scenario in which I folded...

Someone limped UTG and I limped behind him with KK. There was a raise from a late position player, the BB called and the UTG limper reraised. I instamucked and felt really good about it as I knew he would only have AA or maybe KK in that spot. He did end up having aces as have people everyime I have folded KK.

Now what I should have done is at least called the LRR and played for a set (I should have called down but playing for a set is clearly better then folding). The problem is that it is hard to play KK for just set value. It is easy to play 33 for set value because you can throw it away when you miss. When the flop comes rags and you hold KK, it is hard to throw it in. So in that case, folding preflop might be the best play. Of course you have to be certain that he has AA in that spot to do so. The games have changed a lot since I started playing (where a backraise could mean just about anything decent) and making this play now would be a major mistake.

Edited to say that this was at a point in time when my VPIP was probably about 5-7%. I would fold AQ/TT UTG. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[istewart]

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Edited to say that this was at a point in time when my VPIP was probably about 5-7%.

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So... this morning? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Fantam]

I always find it very interesting to read your posts.

I also expect that nowadays you would reraise with KK after a preflop raiser.

Your post made me wonder, when you first started playing and what the games were like in those days ?

Yours respectfully, [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[bozlax]

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So my question was that since what I was seeing in reality was different than what theory dictates, do you compensate your play for that?
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Would it be wrong to alter your play based on that knowledge?

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Ok, in order to adjust your play for variance, you would have to know when your premium hands are going to start running bad and when they're going to start winning at the proper rate. Obviously, this is also true for sub-optimal hands, and even crap hands like 72o that will pick up 3 sevens on the board once in a while.

As somebody responded to one of my earliest posts, "If you can do that, stop playing poker and go to the roulette table. You'll make a lot more money, there." (paraphrased)

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Ok, in order to adjust your play for variance, you would have to know when your premium hands are going to start running bad and when they're going to start winning at the proper rate.



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yep, i agree completely. I also agree (now) that I shouldn't have folded based on a purely statiscal analysis. I won't make that mistake again.

Now my next question is: do you ever go by your gut? If your gut says "fold", do you ever follow it? Or do you always play "by the numbers?".

thanks!

[shant]

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Now my next question is: do you ever go by your gut? If your gut says "fold", do you ever follow it? Or do you always play "by the numbers?".

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By "gut" do you mean a play you make based on the reads of the other players, the action in the hand up to the point of your decision, the board, your position, strength of your hand, betting patterns, etc? If so, yes.

If you mean "gut" as in you have a "feeling" that you're going to lose, then no.

You beat a large percentage of the hands he could be coming in with. It's worth it for all the flops with no A or with a K. I would never fold KK preflop.

Thanks for the response.

Now position did factor in to this. As I said in the OP, I didn't like the fact that I was stuck between someone I *knew* would raise (the lag), and someone that would raise if he hit his hand. All that did factor in. I guess the "bad" part was the fact that I've lost a lot of KK hands recently, so that pavlovian response kicked in a bit. But it all still felt wrong.

I'm at the point now where I'm actually starting to think more instead of being mechanical... You know, paying more attention to the players, getting a feel for the board, etc... I guess all this thinking got me off down the wrong path.

Anyhow, another poster here was gracious enough to volunteer to review some of my sessions, and he said I haven't been making terrible mistakes, just getting sucked out or losing to a better hand. Well, other than playing KTo late (plugged up that hole). So I feel good that this hasn't affected my play overall (except for the KK fold). And ya know, when I think back on, it still "felt" like the right thing to do. If I had to do it again, I think would force myself to call, but I wouldn't feel "good" about it. You ever make calls like that? Anyhow, thanks to all responders for helping me out, I appreciate it.