learning to lay down hands: hand #1

[Equal]

[ QUOTE ]
i can't wait to see hand #2

[/ QUOTE ] lol

[Shandrax]

Let's look at the possible range of hands again that had you beat:

3-3
5-5
K-K
A-K
K-Q
2-2
A-4
4-6

From those you can eliminate A-4 and 4-6 pre-flop.
2-2 is not exactly a hand you raise with pre-flop, but it can be definitely eliminated after the turn because you don't checkraise with it.
K-Q can be eliminated because he would have raised on the flop with that sort of kicker.
A-K is possible, but he would probably have raised on the flop also or at least checkraised on the flop.
K-K is highly unlikely. If he has 4 kings then you pay him off.

With 3-3 and 5-5 all of his betting makes sense. The read was that the guy bets such hands pre-flop. He can checkraise a set on the flop, but it is also ok to wait until the turn. Both hands cannot be excluded.

Now the question is, can you exclude other legitimate holdings for this sort of betting pattern like Q-Q and 8-8. Ok, both hands cannot allow free cards. His check on the flop with 8-8 would be ok though (Theory of Poker p.88), but what about Q-Q? What about the checkraise on the turn? Checking allows the free card. What about the raise on the river with second pair against possible trips? Very weird.

This is the situation where the recommended approach becomes a bit dubious. If you assign percentages to those holdings then it all depends on what you think is likely.

3-3 or 5-5 = 95%
Q-Q or 8-8 = 5%
its a fold

3-3 or 5-5 = 93%
Q-Q or 8-8 = 7%
its a call

I think with that sort of read the fold was correct, it was actually a great fold.

[Shandrax]

P.S.: So far the aspect of bluffing was ignored completely.

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]

K-K is highly unlikely. If he has 4 kings then you pay him off.


[/ QUOTE ]

If he has four Kings, you get your money back because that puts five Kings in play.

SpaceAce

[Shandrax]

Bah, I hoped that nobody would notice. K-K is indeed highly unlikely here. Unfortunately I only asked myself which hands would beat 3 kings without checking every case. When I came back and read it again edit-time was already over. K-K is of course impossible. Also the opponent should probably checkraise with K-Q since a raise alone would not protect the hand.

[flub]

[ QUOTE ]
Now that I've actually read the post, I see that you button-hooked me by posting an absurd fold and then asking if you were a moron, thus drawing away many of my expected "this isn't your biggest leak" votes and causing "you're a moron" to win in a landslide. No fair.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol