20-40 Commerce hand, enjoy this one...

[andyfox]

Poster had backdoor straight and flush draws as well as the two overcards on the flop. Raiser's most likely hand is a jack; poster will win roughly 25-30% of the time against a jack. He was getting 8.5:1.

Aside from that, making the correct play on the river does not "compound" what may or may not have been an incorrect play on the flop. If the new evidence presented on the turn and the river gives me cause to reevaluate my initial read on the flop, it behooves me to act on that evidence.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
There was a thread about this about a month ago. I make $ raising KQs/o, AJs/o when 1st in 5 or more off the button.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought I had remembered that thread and did a search but couldn't find it.

[Usagi_yo]

You're just basing it on the likely hood of the opponant having a jack. Thats hardly the case. My opponant is likely to have just a J, but how about against this range of potential hands.

KJ, QJ, 9Td, AdJx, 8x. I mean what your going to find is that he wasn't exactly 8.5 - 1, but more likely just 3-1, perhaps 4-1. Very marginal. I've played those games, you don't have to play like that to beat them.

[Barry]

This is a link to the thread.

KQo EP

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
I think if I randomly decided, every time I got either K-Qo or A-Jo UTG, to either raise, fold, or call, it wouldn't make an appreciable difference in my results. I'm going to get those hands UTG, in a B&M, roughly once every thirteen hours. Certainly what's far more important is what one does with the hand post-flop. Besides, the games are not always so good. I would think that if folding those hands UTG is +EV, I'm going to have more problems than the K-Q UTG decision, that the game is tougher than the game at the next table over, and that switching tables would affect my results far more than if I occasionally decided to fold K-Q UTG.

However, after all that, I think most of the time in today's B&M games that I'm familiar with, raising UTG with K-Qo is +EV. [So thanks for doing it for me!] I would say, though, that in the Commerce 40-80, the hand is much more difficult to play because it's rare that, having raised UTG, everyone folds to the big blind who will then let you have the pot on the flop when he checks and folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, taken in isolation, almost no single problems matter other than things like "playing every hand". However, this is more than just those hands with 7 or more players yet to act, including the blinds (many more oppoortunities than simply "UTG"). I think this is symptomatic of likely folding many other profitable hands preflop. And if my hypothesis that these hands are worth >.1BB/hand when open raised with 7 or more left to act is correct, then I would argue that the player failing to take advantage of this .1BB/hand situation is capable of missing tons of other situations similarly profitable. And .1BB/hand is significantly profitable.

I'd also argue that I'd rather have a game with people coldcalling with dominated hands than one where they only play when I'm beat.

[esspo]

If he leads the flop, the turn bet would be +ev.

After the checkraise I take the free card.

[andyfox]

Points well taken. We were indeed over this ground, or similar ground, in the thread Barry linked. The internet player have an advantage in that they know whether they're making money or not with K-Q or A-J UTG. In the stereotypical Commerce 40-80 game, they're cold-calling not so much with Q-J or K-J, but with pocket pairs, A-T, A-xs and such. And they're tricky and aggressive post-flop. So part of the advantage I have having marignally better cards is nullified by their positional advantage. Again, having said all this, I'm sure A-Jo and K-Q offsuit are profitable hands for me raising UTG in my Commerce game.

[AviD]

[ QUOTE ]
8-handed. I raise UTG with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. A LP coldcaller and the BB make the pot three ways.

Flop: J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Checked to me, I bet, LP folds, BB checkraises, I call.

Turn: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Checked to me and I bet! BB checkraises again, I call.

River: Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Checked to me, I bet and suffer the ignominy of a trifecta. I fold.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting hand.

Getting CRed on three streets could be worse if you folded the winner, but it could be an insanely good river laydown too.

What's the deal with BB? Blind defender hardcore? Clearly tricky? What's he think of your play? Does he know you know he won't CR this river without a boat or better? Does he think you are moveable off a better hand given the entire line of the hand and the board?

I have seen players pull a trifecta CR just to shut down a a player and earn free cards later in the session, and at the same time accomplish some advertising and letting others know they will aggressively play/protect/defend their blinds (although this isn't really a defend against an UTG raise).

So it really depends on your feelings of the player, and the fold. I don't think you'd fold here if you truly felt you had any chance of winning the pot...so my instincts tell me good fold...although I would find it difficult to make against just about any player, and would probably still call (because I'm a donkey [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

[mike l.]

" In the stereotypical Commerce 40-80 game, they're cold-calling not so much with Q-J or K-J,"

as usual we must be playing in some very different 40 games there because i see even mediocre and better players constantly cold calling with crap like QJ, KT, etc.

[andyfox]

Maybe part of the difference is between the daytime games and the nighttime games. The few times I've played at night, the games were indeed of the loosey-goosey nature you describe. They're not quite the same during the day, as a rule.