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#41
10-07-2005, 06:43 PM
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Re: $215: Bubble hand
This really sucks. Your read is the ONLY reason why I'd consider calling.
Folding has some merit, in that, folding increases your chance at getting 3rd, but it decreases your chance at getting first. With your read, it makes calling here very interesting. I'm certain at the table I'd fold, but maybe I should be thinking more about these. BTW, why does the 190 left matter to you? I think you have to move allin here, if you're going to play, no reason to leave a postflop decision. So one of three scenarios occur. 1) Boobie prize 2) You end up with 380 chips 3) You end up 3 way with 3535 chips. I think when considering this, it's not very relevant you end up with 380 chips vs 4th place. I'd just consider pr(1&2) the same. So, folding = 50/50 at third place prize ~ $200. Calling gives you ~ 66% chance at $0, and a 33% chance of (34.4% of the prize pool) or (1/3) $688 ~ $229. Huh, the math says to call. I guess there's an argument that you could get better than third if you fold your way ITM here, so make the argument a little more even. This is close either way. Edit: I seriously underestimated my math here. [ QUOTE ] So, folding = 50/50 at third place prize ~ $200. Calling gives you ~ 66% chance at $0, and a 33% chance of (34.4% of the prize pool) or (1/3) $688 ~ $229. [/ QUOTE ] My numbers are obviously rough, but they should be restated: Calling gives you ~ 33% chance at $0, a 33% chance at third, and a 33% chance at $229. Calling = $372 
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#42
10-07-2005, 06:46 PM
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Re: $215: Bubble hand
[ QUOTE ]
very nice post Exit but your ranges are pretty off. In fact the NEITHER of the actual hands the held in this instance is in EITHER of those ranges. [/ QUOTE ] This is why I said your read made this hand more interesting. And sorry, I realize now why having a few more chips matters in this hand. FWIW, if shorty pushes, and folded to you, I think we all agree this is an easy call. Another reason why this is an interesting hand (and of course the size of the blinds).
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#43
10-07-2005, 06:46 PM
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Re: $215: Bubble hand
At first I thought it was a fairly close call. Exit's math backed that up since I thought his hand ranges were a bit too tight. Few shorties would pass up an Ace here or maybe any King. Big stack is real big and would be looser too.
Given Apathy's reads on the players and their MUCH wider ranges, I think it is an easy call. To the poster confused with a AA or KK only situation, make sure you take the time to understand the differences here. The differences are fundamental for playing the bubble, but they are NOT obvious to people who haven't played a lot and/or thought a lot about tournaments.
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#44
10-07-2005, 06:58 PM
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Re: $215: Bubble hand
[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold. There is very little chance you have any positive equity here. [/ QUOTE ] Daliman, in general I like the way you think ('cos you're so goot.) Is there something here we're all missing? Scuba
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#45
10-07-2005, 07:09 PM
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Re: $215: Bubble hand
[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold. There is very little chance you have any positive equity here. [/ QUOTE ] Hey Raptor..... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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#46
10-07-2005, 07:30 PM
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Re: $215: Bubble hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Easy fold. There is very little chance you have any positive equity here. [/ QUOTE ] Hey Raptor..... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] lol, so you are gonna listen to dali? yea that works out real well every single time eh.. holla
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#47
10-07-2005, 07:35 PM
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Re: $215: Bubble hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Easy fold. There is very little chance you have any positive equity here. [/ QUOTE ] Daliman, in general I like the way you think ('cos you're so goot.) Is there something here we're all missing? Scuba [/ QUOTE ] nah were not missing anything, dalis been takin too much vike lately, so he cant think clearly. holla
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#48
10-07-2005, 07:36 PM
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Re: $215: Bubble hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Easy fold. There is very little chance you have any positive equity here. [/ QUOTE ] Hey Raptor..... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] lol, so you are gonna listen to dali? yea that works out real well every single time eh.. holla [/ QUOTE ] well, does dali suck at life? and if he does, will you be my friend? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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#49
10-07-2005, 07:37 PM
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Re: $215: Bubble hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Easy fold. There is very little chance you have any positive equity here. [/ QUOTE ] Hey Raptor..... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] lol, so you are gonna listen to dali? yea that works out real well every single time eh.. holla [/ QUOTE ] well, does dali suck at life? [/ QUOTE ] is that not quite clear at this point? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] holla
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