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#41
10-14-2004, 12:06 PM
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Re: Chapter 7
I guess the moral of the story is; err on the side of too much bet and risk a non-call rather than allowing an opponent to hit a miracle card... Stu might have called more anyway, who knows, so Doyle might have been going down the drain on that hand had he overbet the mathematically correct amount. Making an inside straight when your opponent has 2 pair in a heads-up match is going to end up ugly... the only question is how much more Stu would have called.
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#42
10-14-2004, 10:32 PM
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Re: Chapter 7
DonkeyKong, thanks for the math. That really helps. But what about the logic behind the equation? Any insight into how the equation was arrived at?
By the way, it IS discussed on pages 49-50 of my edition. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#43
10-15-2004, 01:51 AM
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Re: Chapter 7
<<Any insight into how the equation was arrived at?>>
well it is clear how it was arrived at... It was Doyles stack size divided by the odds of making a gutshot. but in reality, it was impossible for Doyle to put Stu on exactly a gut shot draw. he can't possibly know that. What you can do is read the flop texture and bet an amount related to likely draws that your opponent might have. Meaning if there is a coordinated board, your opponent might very well have a typical 8 or 9 out draw. You would then make a corresponding bet to ensure that your opponent isn't able to draw for a good price. Implied odds refers to the amount of money that you are likely to win that is in addition to what is already in the pot. Since they were playing NL, Doyles entire stack is used for this calculation since Stu figured that Doyle would not be able to read the fact that Stu made a straight given the cards on the board. Stu correctly called $17,000 because the implied odds were good for Stu. He was 10.75 to 1 to make his draw but would get paid 14x+ (all Doyles chips) if he made it. If you are interested, buy Bob Ciaffone's book 'Pot Limit & No Limit Poker'... I read it and its pretty good. I am not much of a guy to talk about NL though so I will stop there. I am a still a hack when it comes to NL.
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#44
10-15-2004, 07:17 AM
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Re: Chapter 7
[ QUOTE ]
Stu correctly called $17,000 because the implied odds were good for Stu. He was 10.75 to 1 to make his draw but would get paid 14x+ (all Doyles chips) if he made it. [/ QUOTE ] For some reason, I couldn't put it together until you put it that way. Sometimes it takes a little longer than usual for things to sink into my head. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] Thanks. And I agree that the calculation of how much Doyle should bet is made more difficult because of the number of different draws/made hands Stu could have. He could have two pair. He might even be sucking Doyle in with a set. It's those unknowns that make the decision not so cut and dry. Of course hindsight is 20-20. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] BB
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