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#41
11-04-2005, 11:56 AM
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Re: ESPN Baseball Power Rankings (off-season)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Yeah if they do end up losing Damon/Manny there's a chance they finish at the bottom of the east next year. [/ QUOTE ] There is no chance they finish worse than the Devil Rays. [/ QUOTE ] D-rays have some talent. Didn't they have one of the best second half records in the AL? [/ QUOTE ] They may have some talent on their team (Crawford, Cantu, Baez) [/ QUOTE ] These guys are far down on the list in terms of "talent" in the D-Rays organization. [/ QUOTE ] Who else is going to make a contribution to the Devil Rays next year? 
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#42
11-04-2005, 12:04 PM
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Re: ESPN Baseball Power Rankings (off-season)
Let's see.
Julio Lugo led the team in VORP last year. Scott Kazmir was tops among pitchers. Delmon Young is one of the top 3 prospects in baseball. Johnny Gomes was the best hitter and WOULD have led the team in VORP if he played more. BJ Upton is also one of the top prospects in baseball.
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#43
11-04-2005, 12:20 PM
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Re: ESPN Baseball Power Rankings (off-season)
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Julio Lugo led the team in VORP last year. [/ QUOTE ] VORP is a terrible stat. Lugo had the third worst OPS of the nine regular starters for the Devil Rays last year. He's one of the worst fielding SS in baseball. He gets caught stealing way too much for their team. [ QUOTE ] Scott Kazmir was tops among pitchers. [/ QUOTE ] I don't know what you mean by top pitcher. He led baseball in walks, hasn't pitched deep into games and finished 16th in the AL in ERA.
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#44
11-04-2005, 12:22 PM
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Re: ESPN Baseball Power Rankings (off-season)
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even losing Ramirez and Damon you can't believe the Red Sox will finish below .500 [/ QUOTE ] Why not? They have NO pitching and the offense probably doesn't get better without Ramirez and Damon. In AL this year Bos was 10th in whip, 11th in era, and 12th in ops against. This means even most losing teams had better pitching than them. Nobody can protect Ortiz in the lineup like Ramirez can and if someone else fills that spot Ortiz will see very few fat pitches. Obviously they have gobs of cash. It all depends on how they spend it. If they make a splash with some quality arms they will be right back in the thick of things. But you can't count on Schilling and Wells and if they do I could certainly see a major decline. But lots of moves will happen between now and April so this list is ludicrous at this particular point in time.
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#45
11-04-2005, 12:27 PM
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Re: ESPN Baseball Power Rankings (off-season)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] even losing Ramirez and Damon you can't believe the Red Sox will finish below .500 [/ QUOTE ] Why not? They have NO pitching and the offense probably doesn't get better without Ramirez and Damon. In AL this year Bos was 10th in whip, 11th in era, and 12th in ops against. This means even most losing teams had better pitching than them. [/ QUOTE ] How many losing teams won more games than Boston? [ QUOTE ] Nobody can protect Ortiz in the lineup like Ramirez can and if someone else fills that spot Ortiz will see very few fat pitches. [/ QUOTE ] There's little evidence of "protection" having any real effect on hitting ability. [ QUOTE ] But you can't count on Schilling and Wells and if they do I could certainly see a major decline. [/ QUOTE ] Any reasonable expectation has Schilling himself adding several wins to the Boston rotation compared to last season. [ QUOTE ] But lots of moves will happen between now and April so this list is ludicrous at this particular point in time. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, which is why the Manny/Damon thing is terribly overplayed.
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#46
11-04-2005, 12:27 PM
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Re: ESPN Baseball Power Rankings (off-season)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Julio Lugo led the team in VORP last year. [/ QUOTE ] VORP is a terrible stat. Lugo had the third worst OPS of the nine regular starters for the Devil Rays last year. He's one of the worst fielding SS in baseball. He gets caught stealing way too much for their team. [/ QUOTE ] OPS gives too much credit to the PS part. There's a stat that fixes this. I think it's called OPS+ or ADJ. OPS. Someone less lazier than I could look this up. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Scott Kazmir was tops among pitchers. [/ QUOTE ] I don't know what you mean by top pitcher. He led baseball in walks, hasn't pitched deep into games and finished 16th in the AL in ERA. [/ QUOTE ] He's only 21! He had an ERA+ of 114.
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#47
11-04-2005, 12:29 PM
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Re: ESPN Baseball Power Rankings (off-season)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] even losing Ramirez and Damon you can't believe the Red Sox will finish below .500 [/ QUOTE ] Why not? They have NO pitching and the offense probably doesn't get better without Ramirez and Damon. In AL this year Bos was 10th in whip, 11th in era, and 12th in ops against. This means even most losing teams had better pitching than them. Nobody can protect Ortiz in the lineup like Ramirez can and if someone else fills that spot Ortiz will see very few fat pitches. Obviously they have gobs of cash. It all depends on how they spend it. If they make a splash with some quality arms they will be right back in the thick of things. But you can't count on Schilling and Wells and if they do I could certainly see a major decline. [/ QUOTE ] My point is that they'll have ~$30M to spend. They'll find some help at pitching. They still have solid offensive players in Ortiz, Varitek, Mueller, Millar, Youkilis.
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#48
11-04-2005, 12:30 PM
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Re: ESPN Baseball Power Rankings (off-season)
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VORP is a terrible stat. [/ QUOTE ] Why? Because it takes into account positional adjustments? Or are you saying a DH with an .850 OPS is more valuable than a SS with an .800 OPS? [ QUOTE ] Lugo had the third worst OPS of the nine regular starters for the Devil Rays last year. He's one of the worst fielding SS in baseball. He gets caught stealing way too much for their team. [/ QUOTE ] Having the 3rd worst OPS in a strong lineup is pretty good for a SS.
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#49
11-04-2005, 12:31 PM
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Re: ESPN Baseball Power Rankings (off-season)
You're thinking of EqA - Lugo had a .289 EqA. Think of it like a batting average, the average is .260. For a SS, the average is like .252. Lugo's a pretty good hitter.
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#50
11-04-2005, 12:37 PM
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Re: ESPN Baseball Power Rankings (off-season)
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It all depends on how they spend it. If they make a splash with some quality arms they will be right back in the thick of things. [/ QUOTE ] I just don't think you get it. It doesn't matter that the Sox pitching sucked last year. Their offense was good enough to win 95 games. It is actually a GOOD thing that their pitching sucked, instead of vice versa. Hitters are more predictable, and good hitters are more likely to remain good hitters next year than good pitchers are to remain good pitchers. Spending gobs of cash on pitching is usually not a good idea. Though, it worked out exceptionally well last year for the Yankees (for me, at least).
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