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#41
11-07-2005, 08:20 AM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] P.S, I've tried this a few times now (too much time on my hands) My best score is $32000, anyone beat that??? [/ QUOTE ] The first eight hands I dealt out, the Aces won. (2 sets and a nut flush, too [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] ) ..going to keep going to see how far I can get. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] -Aces full rivered against K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]'s flush on hand 11, still going. Lost on Hand #14 with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] to Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Board: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] So, I ran my $500 into $4,096,000 ... hope Danny didn't buy in for $10M+ [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Seriously $4,096,000, I can't get past $32k?? Perhaps I'm just not lucky [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] 
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#42
11-07-2005, 03:37 PM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
[ QUOTE ]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_Fallacy [/ QUOTE ] The fallacy doesn't apply in this case. It applies to someone walking in a casino, seeing that the last x numbers have been black on a roulette wheel, so they incorrectly conclude that red has a better chance of hitting next than black. Here you've been involved in the betting from the beginning. What you have is actually a poisson distribution. Before you've started, you can say that any one particular sequence of events showing up is P(of that event) * number of trials. In a coin example, we know that HTHTHTHT has the same probablity of occuring as HHHHHHHH and that is 0.5^8 If you decide you'r gonna play 8 hands, you're betting that aces will win 8 times in a row: 0.85^8 = 0.27 The difference is whether you make that decision before hand or in the middle of your trial run. The odds reset to 0.85 after you have the information (the sequence of results). Look at it this way, if we run an experiment 100,000 times. In each experiment we record how long aces last against a random hand, and see how long an average streak is. Well, I just ran this experiment and got 5.88261 Here's a sample output for 3 runs: Ah As - Jd Qh -- 3c Jh 2c 2s 9h winner: 1 Ah As - 7s 8c -- Js 2c Tc Jd 4s winner: 1 Ah As - Td Jc -- 6h Ac Kc 4h 4d winner: 1 Ah As - Ad 6d -- 9s 4s 5d 2d 3d winner: 2 Ah As - 9d Jd -- 2h Qh 5s 8c Qs winner: 1 Ah As - 7s Ad -- 7c Jc Ts Js 8h winner: 1 Ah As - Td 2d -- 9h 4s 9d 5h Qh winner: 1 Ah As - 4s Kh -- 8h 3d 8d Ac Tc winner: 1 Ah As - 4c 3s -- 8c 4h Qd 5s 6c winner: 1 Ah As - 2c Kh -- Td 7d Qh 4c 8c winner: 1 Ah As - 4c 7d -- 5c 4h 2d 9h 9c winner: 1 Ah As - Ad 2d -- 5d 8c Js 2s 2c winner: 2 Ah As - 7c 2s -- 9s Kc 8d 6d 3c winner: 1 Ah As - 3h 2d -- 3d 8s 8h 2s 8c winner: 1 Ah As - 2d Ts -- Jd 5s 8c 5c Js winner: 1 Ah As - Tc Ad -- 5c 3h 5s 4s 3d winner: 1 Ah As - 3c Ad -- 8c 7h Jc 6d Td winner: 1 Ah As - 6d 9c -- 7s 8d 5c 7d Tc winner: 2 Average streak: 5.0 That's how long aces last before getting cracked on average. Higher than what I expected, but you get the point.
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#43
11-07-2005, 05:50 PM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
[ QUOTE ]
Let's say that you are sitting at the $5-$10 NLHE table one morning. You've just bought in for $500, and are waiting for other players to come along. Up walks Daniel Negreanu. He sits down across from you, introduces himself, he's a nice guy, you chat. No one else is showing up to play though. So to cure his boredom, he offers you a proposition. Daniel buys in for $125,000. He offers to let you keep the Ace of clubs and the Ace of spades, while he is dealt two random cards from the well-shuffled remainder of the deck. Daniel will then go all-in preflop every single hand. Just to make this clear, every hand you will have pocket aces against Daniel's two (new) random cards (i.e. he gets new random cards each hand), and he is going all-in every hand. If you call, the flop, turn, and river will be dealt and the best hand wins. [/ QUOTE ] If someone ever offers you a bet like this, you should run from the casino as quickly as possible. Otherwise you will get an ear full of cider.
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#45
11-07-2005, 07:48 PM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
theoretically you should NEVER quit, as with each new hand you have a fresh 80% chance of winning.
realistically-- decide the amount of money you need to satisfy your "important need." then quit. ex: you need to pay someone back $2000 or he'll brake your legs-- quit after $2000
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#46
11-10-2005, 03:56 AM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
I would not consider quitting until after the 5th hand ($15,500 win).
At this point I would ask myself if an 80% shot at $32,000 would be worth more to me than the $16,000 in front of me. If I decided it was - and I won the following hand - I would then ask myself the same question using the figures of 32,000 vs. 80% chance for 64,000. In my case - due primarily to the investment opportunities that would become available to me - I'd lean toward quitting at $1,024,000 which would be 10 winners. I disagree with anyone who says this is a stupid question. It is not a stupid question but it's also not a complex question. * For anyone who thinks that the ONLY [correct] answer is to continue until your opponent quits or runs out of money . . . Suppose you got it up to $10,000,000, are all of you saying that you would risk ten million dollars for an 80% shot at twenty million ? - I'm guessing not.
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#47
11-10-2005, 04:25 AM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_Fallacy [/ QUOTE ] The fallacy doesn't apply in this case. It applies to someone walking in a casino, seeing that the last x numbers have been black on a roulette wheel, so they incorrectly conclude that red has a better chance of hitting next than black. The difference is whether you make that decision before hand or in the middle of your trial run. The odds reset to 0.85 after you have the information (the sequence of results). [/ QUOTE ] It is stipulated in the OP that you can quit after any hand. This would mean that you are indeed committing gambler's fallacy if you think previous number of hands played has any effect on whether you should keep playing or not.
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#48
11-10-2005, 09:58 AM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
You should play until one of you is broke. Your odds of winning 8 in a row are alot better the 500 to 125,000.
80%*80%*80%*80%*80%*80%*80%*80% = %13 of making 125000 500 is only 0.4% of 125000. Your wagering .4 % of what you expect to win 13% of the time. Odds are you'll lose this time, but your greating amazing odds to try. For me I would quit after $4000. Because I dont gamble what I cant afford to lose. And at the time I won the $2000 wager. That money is officially mine. If someone offered me this type of deal. 1 hand, double or nothing for my house. I would have to say no.
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#49
11-10-2005, 11:36 AM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
this is akin to the "St Petersburg paradox"
St Petersburg Paradox the answer to the question depends on your wealth utility curve.
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#50
11-10-2005, 07:04 PM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
Im not going to read all of the replies, I'm sure that alot of them are similar to mine.
Daniel's not a complete retard, so he wouldn't offer this. If he DID happen to be drunk and high enough to do so one day... you never quit...ever. Even when the funds run out you beg for more.
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