Festa al Lago....Gigabet is weak tight at heart.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
The 4 cannot have helped Dan, so the only hands that beat Gigabet are:

33 - 3 ways
TT - 1 way
JJ - 1 way

There are 18 ways Dan can have QQ++ and 12 ways for a weaker 2 pr. 30 hands that Dan could be playing like this.



[/ QUOTE ]

I think JJ or TT are extremely unlikely. Harrington almost certainly would have raised preflop with these and there are only so many jacks and tens in the deck.

Really 33 is all you are worried about, unless Harrington had 44 and was bluffing on the flop, but got lucky on the turn.

Harrington could have J3, T3, 98, or maybe QQ-AA. He could also be bluffing. Remember the reraise with 62o against Raymer and Arieh at the WSOP.

[Exitonly]

I think 89 is really unlikely here. Really, really unlikely.

[cferejohn]

You and Dan Harrington are better poker players than I will ever be, but I'm going to come out and say that I think this is a terrible fold. Dan is obviously a tight player, but from having watched him on TV and from reading his books, he certainly knows he has that image, and he certainly takes advantage of it from time to time, especially against players who are aggressive but smart enough to lay down (this is the exact profile of the sort of player one would try the sqeeze play that he advocates against). Gigabet fits that profile exactly.

Even if his range *is* 2 pair or better, it looks like you have a +EV call here, since you beat J3, T3, and T4 (I think this is a possible holding because he could certainly have raised an SB be who completed then bet the flop with second pair).

And I still think there is a chance he's on a complete bluff (not a very big one, but as I said before, it seems he's capable of running a complete bluff against exactly this sort of player in exactly this sort of situation, exactly because when he raises the flop and turn he knows Gigabet will put him on a big hand).

And what do we think he puts gigabet on? Calling the SB and then making a flop overbet when J-high flops? That should look like top pair who doesn't want to give a cheap card, and Dan's thinking might easily be "I think I can push him off top pair if I represent something that can beat it".

Fwiw, I also like the "check the turn" line. The way the hand has played so far, Harrington could also easily put giga on 89, 9Q, or even KQ, and a check the turn fits right in with this and will probably get a bet (and it also should keep the pot size under control since that seems to be a concern).

[tipperdog]

Dan could also have a big pair here, which he decided to slowplay before the flop. This is consistent with the subsequent play, in which he raises enough to give Gigabet incorrect odds with a hand like 89.

Based on his book, I think Dan would slowplay AA, KK, and maybe QQ in this spot, but NOT TT or JJ.

Hence, IMO, possible hands for Dan include AA, KK, 33, JT, J3, or T3. With that range, I push the turn.

[1C5]

On the flop. Is Dan really going to make a very large raise if he is holding 33, JJ, or TT? No way. He is going to slowplay it IMO.

Therefore I think that range you put him on his not that correct and he most likely had a weaker hand than you gave him credit for and knowing that you are a tricky player, he was trying to defend his blinds with either TPTK or less or a draw.

[SCfuji]

wow. yougotballsofsteelyougotballsofsteelyougotballsofs teelyougotballsofsteelyougotballsofsteelyougotball sofsteel

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]
Dan could also have a big pair here, which he decided to slowplay before the flop. This is consistent with the subsequent play, in which he raises enough to give Gigabet incorrect odds with a hand like 89.

Based on his book, I think Dan would slowplay AA, KK, and maybe QQ in this spot, but NOT TT or JJ.

Hence, IMO, possible hands for Dan include AA, KK, 33, JT, J3, or T3. With that range, I push the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dan says in his book that he does not like to slow play. I don't think that letting the SB see a flop is a good slow play b/c Dan would have no idea what Giga was holding, so therefore he would not do it... not his style. Dan might slow play pf if the pot was already raised, but AA-TT are not likely at all b/c Dan would raise pf, IMO...

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]


I disagree. Dan does not need a very big hand to make that raise. The actual size of the raise is a little suspicious, It almost looks like Dan is trying to buy a showdown... I think he probably folds a lot of worse hands to a three bet.



[/ QUOTE ]

The reason I say he needs a big hand or a bluff to raise the turn is this: With a good hand a raise
<ul type="square">[*]will chase out weaker hands and air that may fire again on the river [*]has to fold to a 3 bet, when it could in all likelihood see a showdown for less than or equal to the raise amount[*]makes calling a river bet more attractive if Giga calls and fires agains (i.e. ties him more to the hand with a marginal holding)[*]makes pushing a reasonable action, since the pot and stacks will be close in size[/list]Why would he want to build a big pot with a good but not great holding here? That is horrible pot control, and Dan Harrington knows about controling the pot size. He may be on a third or higher level of thinking bluff, but he most certainly is not making this kind of raise with a relatively marginal hand. The raise is big enough to make calling with most draws incorrect, but again, that is not a punishing bet he is likely to make with a hand that could be behind at the moment. So what's a good but not great hand here? Any one pair hand and, really, the weaker two pair hands. Having position allows you to control the pot size, and with stacks as deep as they are at the start of the hand, that is huge.

With his turn bet Dan sais "I know I can play a decent size pot here, but I am willing to play for all my chips." The only way you can call here is if you think he is on a bluff or would say that with a weaker two pair. A semi bluff is very unlikely here, he is denying odds to a draw, but is still giving a good price. If you decide you are ahead here, raising is not so hot since it gives Dan an opportunity to correctly fold his 2-6 outer (if we rule out a semi-bluff), or his no outer if he is on a stone bluff.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
The way I see it, he can have 3 hands with action like this. JT, 33 or J3. KQ is absolutely unthinkable. One I lose to, one I chop with and one I win with. Why is this a tough fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Cause 50% of your stack size is sitting in the pot, and the combinations out are 12xJ3, 8xJT, and 6x33.

It's basic math and very +cEV and +$EV to push here if you put him on that range, and I suspect his actual range is far wider, as others have argued.

Not every play has to be fancy. Basic blocking and tackling can win lots of $$ also, and this is a perfect example.

Unless you happen to think you can find even higher +EV opportunities later. But that's an old, tired discussion.

[Exitonly]

Given the way he got here, i don't particuarly love a push.. I'm not convinced Harrington calls with any worse hands.


That said, i'm pretty convinced of what i said earlier, check calling the turn, re-evaluate on river, either block bet or check-call again.