Why Current Online Win Rates Won't Persist

[twang]

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My GF is a nurse in the U.S. and makes more money than her Dad who is a doctor in Peru.

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There was a thread recently where the OP said that Scandinavians were colluders because there were so many of them in the top places of Stars MTTs.

The reason scandinavians rock the poker world (%-wise) is because a high level of eduacation, sucky salaries and everyone and their polar bear being online makes poker a really good deal. Assuming the availability of internet access will rise in less developed countries, I can't see what would stop your father in law to double his paycheck by releasing overpaid americans from their $$$.

i think this post is going over peoples h eads. He is not saying players living in bad economies will be better players, he is saying eventually people in mexico and southamerica will discover poker. The crappy players will not play it because they can't afford too. the good players will. Hence the ratio of sharks to fish will increase. the post makes complete sense. I have thought about moving to mexico or costa rica for this exact reason. I can still make 35bucks an hour in costa rica but the cost of living is dramatically less. It will be like I'm making 90 bucks an hour(number pulled out of my ass but you get the gist).

[scrapperdog]

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i think this post is going over peoples h eads. He is not saying players living in bad economies will be better players, he is saying eventually people in mexico and southamerica will discover poker. The crappy players will not play it because they can't afford too. the good players will. Hence the ratio of sharks to fish will increase. the post makes complete sense. I have thought about moving to mexico or costa rica for this exact reason. I can still make 35bucks an hour in costa rica but the cost of living is dramatically less. It will be like I'm making 90 bucks an hour(number pulled out of my ass but you get the gist).

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Why is it that mexico will have a higher % of people that play and win as compared to any other country? Is it the free copies of SS that poker missionaries are translating to spanish and bringing down there?

I've thought about the practicality of this concept some months ago, like many other people. I mean, why can't someone with an internet connection in some 3rd world developing nation just play poker?

I'm sure there's no threat of an influx of these sorts of players. Firstly, there's the whole statistical normal distribution of bad to good players entering. Secondly, much of the poker literature is in English and costs money. (While I am somewhat of exception, I must have invested some 500 or so bucks, probably a little less, into books and software before wagering a nickel.) As others have said, you have to pay for your education some way. Most commonly through the price of books and experience at the tables.

Basic economic laws also apply. If there's N sharks in the kiddie pool, then at some point there will be diminishing returns for the (N+1)th shark. (Not to mention that being a shark is a relative term as well.) It would have to be a proven certainty to a new pool of serious players that they'd be winning.

Then there's the whole cultural thing. Gambling is either a positive or negative thing in many cultures.

Lastly, most people do not have an analytical background, understanding, or even basic education. This is a large barrier for entry. Many people, even in developed nations, do not understand basic mathematic principles. For instance, plenty of people think that if two days have a forecast of 50% rain, they think they have a 100% chance of rain over the two day period. Much of what we learn is actually counterintuitive.

Oh, this is kinduva stupid paranoia thread, btw. Somewhat pointless. I'm not sure why I even thought about it originally...maybe it was because it would be cool to move to country with a much lower standard of living and make a killing with the same "wage". [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[SinCityGuy]

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If there's N sharks in the kiddie pool, then at some point there will be diminishing returns for the (N+1)th shark.

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Something that tends to get overlooked is the fact that most of the sharks are playing anywhere from 4 to 12 tables, and most of the fish are playing one table.

In the long run, this will probably result in the same thing that happens in commercial overfishing, when fishing mortality reaches a level where the stock biomass has negative marginal growth.

In online poker, new signups are declining, while the number of multitablers is increasing. The games will get much tougher over the next few years at all limits.

[gabyyyyy]

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If there's N sharks in the kiddie pool, then at some point there will be diminishing returns for the (N+1)th shark.

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Something that tends to get overlooked is the fact that most of the sharks are playing anywhere from 4 to 12 tables, and most of the fish are playing one table.

In the long run, this will probably result in the same thing that happens in commercial overfishing, when fishing mortality reaches a level where the stock biomass has negative marginal growth.

In online poker, new signups are declining, while the number of multitablers is increasing. The games will get much tougher over the next few years at all limits.

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Good Id rather play decent players.

Atleast I won't get sucked out on as much.

[BradleyT]

I hope you're being funny but my gut feeling is you aren't trying to be.

[MicroBob]

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I hope you're being funny but my gut feeling is you aren't trying to be.

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[timprov]

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In the long run, this will probably result in the same thing that happens in commercial overfishing, when fishing mortality reaches a level where the stock biomass has negative marginal growth.


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Except that we don't then eat the worst fishermen. There the metaphor falls apart.

[SinCityGuy]

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Except that we don't then eat the worst fishermen.

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That is true. They just quit and move on to something else.