Interesting No Limit Question

[CrisBrown]

Hi West,

Yes, you're right. That's what 3am does for me. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

The 2/11 vs. 2/9 that the third player has JdXd if the lead bettor does changes the probabilities a bit, but not all that much. Instead of a 31% chance of you being free-rolled, it's 27%. Instead of a 6% chance of you losing to the freeroll, it's 5.4%. Instead of a 45% chance that neither player has Jd, it's 41%.

Cris

[Vince Lepore]

[ QUOTE ]
you are giving the bettor a lot more credit for having a good read than I do

[/ QUOTE ]

Cmon. The board is A,K,Q,T. There is $900 in the pot. How did that money get there? It's early in the tourney so blinds are small. There had to be a raise either preflop or on the flop or both. The flop is three big cards.
Three players see the turn with presumed betting on the flop. A fourth big card hits the board putting a four card straight on board? What hands do you give your opponents? Straight, two pair, set - flush draw? Your opponent(s) certainly do not have to have a straight but it is a distinct and good possibility. A possibility that must be put into any equation of what action to take.

[ QUOTE ]
Against trips, the bet of 200 with the str8 is a bit dubious, isn't it?


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, yes, but not unreasonable, if one considers the the fact that it is unlikely that both opponents have trips. It is very appropriate if one is trying to induce a raise by one of your opponents or at the lease not give a free card. In fact one might hope that one opponent has trips and the other a staight. If that is the case then one may get raised by the straight with the trips calling and then can push in all of your chips. If the trips re in between then you get him to make a big mistake if he calls all in. If he folds you would now be free rolling against the straight.

Sorry gotta go will continue later.

Vince

[manku]

Go all-in...why, well first of all i'm guessing as we don't know the order of the cards, or whether the bets came preflop, on the flop or both.

However, my feeling in tourney's is that you're gonna get all your chips in sooner or later. Here you have a chance to be a solid (at worst, if your reads are incorrect) 28-16 favorite to much much better (say if they have two pair/set). Plus, having a big stack early is always nice. And having an aggressive, go for broke image can help...depending.

My big question is what kind of fishy play is a $200 bet into a $900 pot? That's the kind of junk you see in online poker or home games. With the texture of the board, the lead bettor cannot afford to have two pair/higher flush draw/set get such cheap odds. Personally, I can't see a solid player ever making such a weak play. Maybe a check raise, but not a piddling wager like this.

Plus, if you go all in, and no one else has the J of diamonds, then everyone will be forced to fold - if they're solid players, right? Then you make $1100, plus get a little table image.

What I'd also like to know, is why a $200 is the correct play (they are all solid players) with the nuts? Any two pair/flush draw is being given the correct odds and then some with this wager. And with this board, I'd certainly think at least one is out there.

Manku

[Shaky]

[ QUOTE ]
Cmon. The board is A,K,Q,T. There is $900 in the pot. How did that money get there? It's early in the tourney so blinds are small. There had to be a raise either preflop or on the flop or both. The flop is three big cards.
Three players see the turn with presumed betting on the flop. A fourth big card hits the board putting a four card straight on board? What hands do you give your opponents? Straight, two pair, set - flush draw? Your opponent(s) certainly do not have to have a straight but it is a distinct and good possibility. A possibility that must be put into any equation of what action to take.

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely, it is a possibility - which is what I said in my post. But (like you said) look at the size of the pot - we got a big pot this early in a tourney because two players were on a gut shot str8 draw?????? Isn't it more likely that we got there because one guy had trips and the other two pair? Or that one person had two pair and the other a flush draw?

I can easily acknowledge that from the perspective of the bettor, it is possible that an opponent also has the str8, but I can't see how he gets the read that it is a likely holding.

Shaky

[daryn]

i was just thinking about this question a little more and came up w/ this idea.

The interesting aspect of this question is that in a multiway pot allowing one player to hurt you EV wise may be worth it if it keeps someone else from hurting you worse. In this case it is important to realize that letting the guy call for 200 behind you is much different than letting him call only 20. If he is a 20% shot, he increases his EV (because you let him in) by $100 (.2x1300 minus .8x200). Fifty bucks of that is yours. Had the bet been only $20, letting him in hands him about $122 from each of you. And the correct answer might change.

If you force him out, which even the minimum raise should do, you grab $50. But at what expense? The one third risk of a reraise which you are forced to call. You must call because you will only lose this extra $9500 about 5% of the time, a risk worth taking compared with giving up half the pot. (If you thought you should fold it would be even worse since you give up half the pot all 33% of the time).
But this means you will lose an extra $9500 about 1.7% of the time all told. So the raise that knocks the flush draw out and saves you $50 GIVES the first guy about $150 in EV.
So far I've proved that a call is better than a small raise.

NOTE: My numbers assume that if someone has the jack of diamonds they are a bit more likely than random to possess the second diamond. However, assuming otherwise doesn't change the answer, although it might in the case of a twenty dollar bet.

What about moving all in? Putting aside the fellow behind you, the math makes this slightly better than calling if you can get the first guy to fold the non diamond jacks. But he won't. Even if he thinks you won't make this play without the jack of diamonds yourself, he still has an easy call. As in the earlier example he is going to get back his $650 95% of the time versus a 5% shot at losing $9500. Plus he may be suspicious that you raised without the diamond. And if you can't get him to fold non diamond jacks, moving in is clearly wrong.

What about folding? The mere question want makes me want to cry. As long as you assume that the guy behind you won't raise without the jack of diamonds (an assumption almost all posters made, even those who advocated a fold) how can it be even close to right to fold? To show this one can assume the even worst case scenario- that you will fold to a fourth st raise and always be bet out of the pot if the river is a diamond or a pair. But this will happen at most a total of 60% or so. Meanwhile you are risking $200 to win slightly less than $550 on average. (There could be a three way split.) If you choose to NEVER risk more than that $200, you are getting 5-2 on a 3-2 shot. Those who said to fold have SERIOUS problems with their poker thinking and need to take a vacation and study a bit.

[paulie]

I flat call. I don't want to go broke in a pot that figures to be split. I also don't hate the overcall behind me anyways as I get 1/2 of that when the draws don't hit. I fold to a river diamond or a pairing of the board, grudgingly- but with my stack intact.

[JJNJustin]

I most assuredly would pick move-in, F.
However, if there is a chance that the flush draw holds a jack, or that either player is freerolling, then I would just call and see what the flush draw does. If he makes a large raise, indicating he may be freerolling, I would fold.
This is an important factor in the hand and makes all the difference.
If I somehow knew that the flush draw did not hold a jack, then I feel that moving-in would be the best play.
Despite the fact that there is alot of poker literature out there, there are still plenty of fools (i.e. Detroit's No-Limit cash games) who would put it all in on a 1/5 shot, especially if they they could triple up. In fact, in thinking more about this question, the correct answer, is to stop thinking about this question, turn your computer off and go to Greektown or Motor City casino and play in their no-limit cash game. Anyone who feels that the inconvenience of flying to Detroit to play in this game is
not worth it clearly does not understand the importance of game selection. The EV in playing this game even if you are just pretty good is much more important to your bankroll
than the finer points of poker logic.
Getting back to the question, it doesnt matter that I am going to chop with the other guy with a straight if a diamond does not come. I am still getting $3000+ per hand EV if both of them call. Me moving all-in and getting a call from the flush draw might even make the other guy fold his straight, fearing a three-way chop or that one of us is free-rolling on him. He will have a greater inclination to fold especially if he is timid (I assume he is from his $200 bet into the $900 pot)and doesnt have the guts to risk his stack this early. Playing the hand this way gives me a chance to get 2x EV if the guy with the flush draw calls and makes the other guy with the straight fold, for an EV of $6000. Most of the time, however, if my opponents are of the saner, more timid variety, I expect the flush draw to fold and the other guy with the straight to either call or fold. He will fold if he fears that I am freerolling. If he folds, I have picked up 1/2 a pot I wasnt entitled too. If he calls I have lost nothing.
All the other plays mentioned (except just calling) are not good, because they allow the initial better to re-raise or re-raise all-in. I would rather have them both out of the pot, and win $1100, being only entitled to 1/2 of it. If they both call it isnt too bad, but if just the flush draw calls, assuming he's a maniac, and the other straight folds, assuming he's a tight gutless player, then its
a pretty damned good play.
Here is why making a marginal raise is a bad play.
If I raise $2000 the flush may get tempted to call because he's getting implied odds over 5to1. Now the other guy may try to buy it, assured that no one is freerolling and he may move all in. Now I'm going to have to call, having put $2000 in already, and I have the nuts at this point,
and the flush draw probably will as well. Playing the hand this way gives up the chance of winning $1100 every time with no risk, as well as giving up the chance of making the other straight fold and getting a call from the flush draw.
Both of these results have big advantages.

Therefore I would pick F, move-in. I know this is probably wrong, according to Sklanksky and other theorists.
In fact, based on his love for irony in his writings, I'll bet 3-1 that Sklanksky choses "fold" as the correct answer.
I have much respect for Sklanksky and Malmuth, and their arguments are presented flawlessly and logically. However, the more experience I get playing poker both in live action and in tournaments, the more I feel that these writings reflect alot of what works in "theoretical" poker games,
where everyone plays optimally and thinks logically. Unfortunately, this is not reality. One of the problems with Sklansky's writings is that he assumes the rest of the world thinks as brilliantly as he does. Therefore, I respectfully disagree.


-J
-J

[West]

lol

[donny5k]

I'm surprised CrisBrown hasn't pointed out the consequences of plagiarism to you yet [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img].

[JJNJustin]

After further consideration, I had second thoughts about my previous answer. The thing I dont like is the idea of risking all my chips early on in a tournament, especially the pot could be/probably would be chopped, if I indeed do win it. It's not a bad play in terms of EV, but the chance of going broke so early on in the tournament makes it wrong.
The best way (a very good way?)to play this hand is to just smooth call the $200 bet. Now you might notice that this gives the flush draw good enough odds to call and you normally dont want that. However, by making a raise big enough to give the flush draw insufficient odds, you risk having the original bettor reraise for a large amount or even all-in and you dont want this, because you will have to call and you want to avoid putting all your chips in this pot early on in the tournament.
So if you just smooth call, the flush draw will call (happy to know he's getting good enough odds w/o fearing a raise), but the original bettor will not be able to reraise. Then, if the diamond does not fall on the river, you just call the bet and split the pot. But, if the board pairs, you should be prepared to raise or bet all-in in an attempt to get the other guy to fold his straight. You only calling on the turn, especially with the scary 4-card straight on board, might indicate to him that your hand is a set and not, in fact, the straight. The smooth call on the turn
will also keep the pot from escalating into an enormous amount, increasing the chance that a bluff move-in on the river might successfully make the guy lay his straight down, especialy this early in the tournament (he will be leary about risking all his chips.
Even had you raised enough to give the flush draw insufficient odds, the pot might get too big for the other nut straight to lay down if the board pairs. Furthermore,
he might be more suspicous if you make such a move on the river, since you raised on the turn not fearing his re-raise, with a 4-card straight on the board. Just smooth calling gives you a much better chance of getting away with this bluff on the river if the board pairs and it is not a diamond. Also, if the diamond falls, you will be able to fold. You allowing the diamond draw to call will cost you your half of the pot ($650) 1/5 times but also gain you the 1/2 of the flush draw's call ($100) 4/5 times for a net loss of $250 over 5 hands or $50 a hand. However, this negative EV is offset by the fact that by playing the hand this way you can successfully bluff on the river for 1/2 of the pot. The board will pair a non-diamond about 1/5 times. If you are able to make the other straight fold his hand 1/2 of the time you will win an extra $650 1/10 for an EV of +$65. So smooth calling actually gives you an extra net EV of $15, and allows you to win your half of the pot the 4/5 times you are entitled to it without risking your entire stack before the river card.

Would Sklansky post the "answer" already? LOL