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#392
10-09-2004, 08:29 AM
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Re: Interesting No Limit Question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] On the turn you hold the nuts. The nuts on the turn is not a very powerful hand unless it contains the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. That's what I've been saying all along. [/ QUOTE ] As I said, once I understood that we had the Js and not any random J, I've been coming more and more to your side. I still think folding is poor, and I still maintain that perhaps a minimum bet is not that bad, but I agree with you on most of what you're saying. Now where the hell is Slansky? [/ QUOTE ] You gentlemen need to explain this to me. Why does it make a difference whether we have the Jc or Js? And since he has a jack, and there are three jacks that are not in our hand, how can his chances of holding the Jd be MORE than 1/3? I don't really see anyone addressing my math other than to say that the flush draw might also contain the Jd. Which would change the numbers, but I don't see anyone even trying to show that it changes the ultimate result. Basically, I have no problem if anyone disagrees with me, but I do think disagreement has to involve showing a flaw in the calculations somewhere, not just saying "you're dumb if you raise." [/ QUOTE ] The best hand is Jd-Xd. The 2nd best hand is J-x not diamonds. If you have the Jd, you can be sure that nobody has the best hand, therefore your 2nd best hand is indeed the best. If you have the Jd, even if you don't have the best hand, you can bluff and act as if you do have the best hand. [/ QUOTE ] I understand all that. You didn't actually answer anything I asked [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] You asked(and I quote): " Why does it make a difference whether we have the Jc or Js?" I think I answered that. 
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#393
10-09-2004, 08:32 AM
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Re: Interesting No Limit Question
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What are your thoughts given that Sklansky has now posted saying that it makes no difference whether or not you assume that the flush draw hand could possibly have the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for a straight? [/ QUOTE ] My thoughts on that: Why did he not say whether or not it matters if the 1st guy also has a flush draw to go along with his straight. That was just as ambiguous! I'm confused as to how it can't matter. It has mattered a lot in all of our discussion. Squirrel's and Darren's arguments are entirely based upon the assumption that our opponents COULD have both a flush draw and a straight. Others have answered much differently because they didn't interpret it that way. I'm confused(as usual).
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#394
10-09-2004, 08:34 AM
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Re: Interesting No Limit Question
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I dont know if this question was asked....there are 19 pages. Which cards on the board are of which suit and are you as well on a flush draw? [/ QUOTE ] I only have 8 pages...why do you guys have so many? It really helps to make your settings have more posts/page imo so you don't have to go to the next page so much.
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#395
10-09-2004, 08:34 AM
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Re: Let me clarify something.
Where did you come up with the fact that he will only raise you all-in with the bare J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 1/3 of the time?
A good player will realize the situation and put you to a decision for all your chips nearly every time.
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#396
10-09-2004, 08:36 AM
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Re: Worse than I thought
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If he doesn't, there are 9 diamonds unseen, and the flush draw behind has 2 of them. So it's 2/9 that he has JdXd and is freerolling you. [/ QUOTE ] 11 diamonds unseen (possible diamonds the flush draw could be holding) if initial bettor doesn't have J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].. Don't we also have to consider the 2/9 (1/3 x 2/3) times that the lead bettor has the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] but doesn't have another diamond, according to your estimate? Those 2/9 of the time, the flush draw can't be freerolling on you. At the same time, I'd think it'd be better than random that the flush draw would be holding the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], in the event that the lead bettor isn't holding it.
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#397
10-09-2004, 08:40 AM
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Re: Folding the Nuts
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You are playing NL. You are headsup on the flop with an opponent you know well. Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] You have A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] You bet 20 dollars into a 20 dollar pot and your opponent moves in for 5000 more. You KNOW your opponent will not put all his money in without the nuts. Do you call here? I'm just trying to say that folding the nuts in holdem is rare, but POSSIBLE. While David's example isn't this cut and dried, I still believe folding the nuts is correct, and if it's not it's sure close. [/ QUOTE ] Squirrel, I understand your point here, and let me say that you've helped me see a lot in this thread. But you seem to be the type of guy that could easily be semi-bluffed out of a hand. Good players will recognize that, and in the hand above, and in the above example they might push only on a flush draw. I mean, if you'll fold the nuts to a semi-bluff, you'll pretty much fold anything to a semi-bluff. Thats Phil Hellmuth-esque passiveness imo. So basically, if I know that you view me as a tight player who only raises with the nuts, I could push with just about anything and you'd fold becuase you'd fear getting freerolled.
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#398
10-09-2004, 08:43 AM
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Re: Folding the Nuts
I should have stated that you have at least as much money as your opponent. I'm sure most people assumed this.
If you KNOW your opponent has AK, you can't call here. You seem to have a problem determining risk vs. reward.
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#399
10-09-2004, 08:47 AM
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Re: Worse than I thought
"The assumption that you are gonna get a huge raise from the flush/straight combo the 2/9ths the time you see that hand and have to fold seems erronious to me. What if you see a proper game theory bet, making it improper for you to fold? "
You then go on to imply that this is bad. Shame, shame,shame. It is NEVER worse that someone bets or raises too little for it to be right to fold. Think.
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#400
10-09-2004, 08:54 AM
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The Call is Correct. Expection = +$400
Since everyone else is explaning, so will I:
The correct answer is B. call The flush draw will also call putting $1500 in the pot. About 4 times in 5 the flush will not come in. So 4 times you profit $550 v. 1 time you lose $200 for a net exp. of +$400. If you instead choose to raise $700 this will push out the flush draw, since he is a good player and will recognize that a call has a neg. exp. But one time in 3 the bettor holds J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Even if he is not freerolling you, he can play as though he is since he knows you're not freerolling him. If he holds J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] he will bet enough to force you to fold and you lose $700. 1 in 3 you lose $700, and 2 in 3 you profit $450 for a net exp. of $200. The call is better.
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