Why does this happen in online poker?

[MicroBob]

"Those are the odds of a person getting a three of a kind.

The odds of a microboy getting it, are probably far less. "



thanks. that clears it up.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
why not just outline the calculation yourself in a post, like anyone else here could do (i hope)?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm bored so here goes.

Chances of being dealt a pocket pair are 1/17 as has been mentioned earlier in the thread. Unlike some other number mentioned, this is actually correct.

If this was at a 3 man table the odds of them each being dealt a pocket pair is approximately (1/17)^3 = 1/4913. At a full 10-man table there are 10C3 = 120 ways to choose the 3 players to have the pairs so you can estimate the odds of 3 players at a full table having pairs at about 120/4914 or about 40-1.

K, now we have our pairs so lets figure out how often they will all flop sets on the flop. Since they each have 2 outs to make a set there are 8 possible flops that will give them each a set. With the 3 pairs accounted for there are 15180 different flops. 8/15180 ~= 1897-1

The odds of both those things happening: 120/4914*8/15180 = 960/7459520 =~~ 77,702-1

Its not a common thing, but not terribly uncommon ether.

(I'm sure my math is wrong somewhere but those numbers all seem reasonable to me.)

[MicroBob]

i think that's more like it.

although, i still wonder about the 3 players getting a pocket-pair thing.
since all 3 players can't get the same pocket-pair, doesn't that make it a little more likely that 3 players can get one at the same time??

in other worse, i think your calculations are good if you are trying to determine the odds of 3 out of 10 different players on 10 different tables (all with seperate decks).

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
although, i still wonder about the 3 players getting a pocket-pair thing.
since all 3 players can't get the same pocket-pair, doesn't that make it a little more likely that 3 players can get one at the same time??

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh I know my calculations are wrong. The fact that player A has a pair certainly affects how often players B, C, and D will will be dealt pairs, but I think they are good enough for government work. If anything I would guess my number is a tad high.

[MicroBob]

ok. good enough. 77k:1 is close enough for me as well....although i am mildly curious as to the proper way to figure out the correct number.

since there are 13*6=78 different pocket-pairs i suspect one would start from there.


so take the 77k-to-1 figure.

here are some others to compare it with (from super system):

Heads-Up Hold 'em, both players get pocket-aces = 270,724 to 1
Pocket Aces for you each of the next 4 consecutive hands = 2,385,443,280 to 1
hold AKs, odds of royal flush on flop = 19,599 to 1
5-card draw, being dealt straight flush = 64,973 to 1

once, when dealing blackjack, i dealt all 5 of my players a BJ on the same hand.
odds of BJ = 20:1 (this was a 6-deck shoe so the effects so the effects of card-removal aren't quite so big).
odds of 5 players all getting BJ are 320,000:1


there is also a game called 21+3 where the player gets paid 9:1 on a side-bet if his two cards and dealer's up-card combine to make trips, flush or 3-card straight.
since it pays 9:1 i'll assume that the odds of hitting it are roughly 10:1 (again, this is a 6-deck shoe).
i had one guy nail it 3x in a row (1000:1) and then 5x in the first 6 hands (which is when we really started keeping track). he finished by hitting it 12x in 19 hands or something like that. nailing a 10:1 shot 12x in 19 tries has to be far more improbable.


tonight, i played a HE hand (3 players) where the guy in seat 1 had AdQs, seat 3 had 7c8h and i had Th3c and the flop was Jh9c2h. the odds of those cards coming out in that exact order are absolutely astronomical!!!
amazingly, on the very next hand, the cards that came out had the exact same odds against. Incredible!!!

i once had a hand where three of us had AA, KK, QQ and not of us hit our set!! amazing!!


as some have ponited out before.....if you played several thousand hold-em hands and NEVER had anything like this happen, then that would be the most peculiar thing of all.


carry on.

[Alobar]

if I remember correctly party is up to like 546,000,000 hands dealt. So until someone here shows the mathmatical probability of what you described happening is far greater than 546 MILLION-1, I'm not going to be to concerned about it.

I'd be willing to guess that if you did the math for the hand happening but figured it EXACTLY as it happened. I.E. the odds of 3 players not only being dealt a pocket pair, but being dealt 22 44 jj and then the action happening as it did, it would still be less than 546 million to 1.

just something to think about, if you dealt out 546 million hands at a live table it would take 2077 years. Basically you could have been sitting there playing poker since before Jesus was born, you don't think in a couple millenium you're going to see some odd stuff?

[gabyyyyy]

[ QUOTE ]
if I remember correctly party is up to like 546,000,000 hands dealt. So until someone here shows the mathmatical probability of what you described happening is far greater than 546 MILLION-1, I'm not going to be to concerned about it.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well that is just stupid thinking. I am sure a couple of players that I have played live with, would love you in their home game. You would keep getting your premium hands busted by AA or Fullhouses but still think it is blip.

He did not say that online poker was rigged. However, going throughout life thinking that you are never going to get cheated in a poker game until you play 500 million hands is STUPID.

[ QUOTE ]
just something to think about, if you dealt out 546 million hands at a live table it would take 2077 years. Basically you could have been sitting there playing poker since before Jesus was born, you don't think in a couple millenium you're going to see some odd stuff

[/ QUOTE ]

This guy has probably been playing online for less then 2 years. I would say that is a far cry from 2000 years.

[Fred Duke]

Your odds calculation is worthless. The probability of this event happening is 1, certainty, it happened. Trying to figure the Ex Post Facto odds gain you no real insight.

'Course that doesn't mean online poker ain't crooked as a dog's hind leg...

[Jimbo]

gabyyyyy as trolls go you rate pretty high on the amusement scale.

Do you:

1) Ever completely read a post before you respond?
2) Ever read the content of your own posts after you respond?

It often appears that you are having your own private conversation using a few sentences and words from several different posts in a random manner but rarely completing a coherent thought

Keep up the good work, you are a riot. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Jimbo

[KC50]

I was in a tourney at stars and held AA...4 way action (all were all-in btf) my AA against KK QQ and 10-10. I have never seen 4 pairs 10 and higher all go allin btf. The odds of that happening once in your lifetime are astronomical. BTW a 10 flopped. Makes you wonder.

KC