When do you start to suspect a site?

[Lebronomania]

I haven't accused Party-Empire of screwing me over. I have just admitted that the suspicion is growing in my mind. The purpose of this thread was not to start a discussion of whether Party is marking players. I just wanted to know whether my recent spate of bad luck was better explained by the laws of probability.

Look, at some point, when you have such an unlikely run of cards, its not only natural, but entirely logical to search for other causes for the bad cards than the mere vagaries of fortune. The first and most likely cause is that you're not playing well. I feel that I'm playing very well. The second possible cause is that your opponents are playing better. I'm positive that they aren't.

Is Party marking players? I certainly never thought so, and still dont. Right now I'm just struggling mightily for an explanation of how this is happening. I'm now down over 6k for the month, and no matter what I do, no matter how many breaks I take, no matter how I adjust my play, its not working. I have $5k left. I believe that I'm a winning player, and I will no stop believing this until the last cent of that $5k is in the hands of my opponents. Actually, even if I lose this my entire bankroll, I will still have won $12k since I started doing this professionally. Unfortunately, that is little solace, since I'll have to start looking for a real job.

This thread has turned out to be pretty useless. It hasn't helped to talk 'bout it, and the responses, though some well-meaning, arent really helpful. I'll post again on this forum when I've lost all $5k, or I've won all $6k back, plus $4k. Anyone wanna lay odds?

[Nottom]

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Also SD converges much faster than does your winrate



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This is just plain wrong.

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ummm no its not.

[ActionBob]

While you think many repsonses were meaningless, I think that the bottom line is if you dont realize how insignificant a 5k downswing is at 15-30 then you certainly should not be playing for a living.

I'm certainly not trying to insult you, but anyone who is considering playing professionally should really not even think twice about a 5k downswing. It certainly sucks and is no fun, but it happens (and will happen again) to the best of players.

-ActionBob

[Adde]

I'll post again on this forum when I've lost all $5k, or I've won all $6k back, plus $4k

Why on earth are you not dropping down a limit or two instead? Not doing this when running as bad as you seem to do, in my book that spells "tilt".


adde

[yocalif]

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Honestly, I'm not looking for sympathy here. I just want someone to tell me that whats happening is not totally exceptional. If thats the case, I'll put aside my concerns and get back to work.

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Your current bad run experience is NOT exceptional. In fact I doubt you have any idea how bad things can get. Hopefully your current bad run swings positive and you are raking in the pots again. BUT, that may not happen...

You should be considering "damage control". If your $6k, bankroll takes a few more hits, what then? What can you afford to live on? If you lose two months in a row, what then?

I have no advice, based on your mini bio. you are obviously smarter than me.

[goodguy_1]

I think nottom is correct ..read Bruce Z's post on the subject.An accurate winrate is much tougher to have confidence then an accurate sd measurement.By tougher I mean it takes many more hours to be confident these measurements are accurate.

You can get a much better feel for your sd then winrate in just 50 hours.
Even if you played thousands of hours your winrate can easily be off by 10,20,30% in constant game conditions..your sd will be very accurate after even 50/100/200 hours in same constant game conditions.

[goodguy_1]

godamnit you are annoyingly arrogant.

here's my take on this:
you came on here 4 weeks ago proclaiming to be gods gift to poker...you were playing 6 tables of 15-30 blah blah.You were telling everyone how easy this was..blahblah.You had a great last month at the game this month you are learning that you are not that great and what you are learning is that your edge or anyones at these games is not what you thought.

I think nottom's advice on your current ev in these games is most accurate.. you are obvioulsy a very bright fellow its not easy to get into U of Chicago we know that..but you assume since you ran well in your first 150/300 hours that you are genuis ..now that your winrate is smoothing out a little bit you think you are getting cheated or marked.what kinda fuugin bullchit excuse is that .your average is your average no excuses ..you dont delete months were you were unlucky or run bad..it's all one big game.
I notice a recurring theme in your personal history you seem to have a major persoanlity flaw-hubris.We again see it in your poker game.

My guess is this you ran really well when you first played this game and now your winrate is adjusting itself..you are probably also steaming away chips with your personality i would say.
bottomline is you are smart enough and good enough to probably beat the game for 1-2 bb's an hour but your intellect shows a real lack of understanding gambling theory and probabilty..reread Poker Essays and Theory of Poker by Sklansky..


There are dozens of guys on here who are proclaiming themselves to be allstars problem is they've played 200-300 hours at a limit not 2000/3000..they all will be tested like you except for the truely great players.

reground yourself and come off the fuggin high horse.
get rid of the attitude.be realistic and get back to making money..

the first day u came on here proclaiming your 6 tables bs you were in trouble.

I dont proclaim to be an allstar but I've played professionally now for this is my 5th year fulltime.I've never made more than 60K but never made less than 35K.
I am curently working on that 60K problem!!

but really man you sound like an arrogant ass.get a grip.If you think you can just slide thru poker without the necessarty traits it takes to succeed in real life ventures..you are kidding yourself.It takes heart,discipline and humility not just intellect..do you have these qualities??

good luck Lee

ps: dont take this chit personally [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Tuco]

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Anyone wanna lay odds?

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I put it about 1/9 that you are not as good as you think. I know I'm nowhere near as good as I think.

I've played online poker for a living for almost 5 years now. Played over 1.2 million hands. Never had a losing month. I would estimate my total winnings at somewhere around $400K. All of these accomplishments are quite incedental in the general poker community. I have a friend who specializes in HU and shorthanded play that has won this amount in a year.

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I have just admitted that the suspicion is growing in my mind

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This is a huge problem. You have to get past it. If you think this way, your play changes. Ive seen it before. Guys who I looked up to and thought were great players, can't win a dime online. They just cant believe that it is on the square and they turn in to calling stations just to see what the computer beat them with. Not saying this is you, only that it is a major problem with some people.

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I'm now down over 6k for the month

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This variance is not even close to out of the ordinary when you play three shorthanded 15/30 games at the same time (which is a terrible idea, IMO). My HU friend lost $60,000 in a month. Higher limits than you or I play, but not 10 times higher.

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I believe that I'm a winning player, and I will no stop believing this until the last cent of that $5k is in the hands of my opponents. Actually, even if I lose this my entire bankroll, I will still have won $12k since I started doing this professionally. Unfortunately, that is little solace, since I'll have to start looking for a real job.


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This shows very poor money managing skills for someone that thiks of themselves as a professional. I know players that I guarantee are better than you that drop down and play lower when they are running bad. Before you say "how do you know they are better than me," the answer is because they have proven themselves over years of play, unlike yourself. You may become a better player than they or I am, but I guarantee you aren't now.




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This thread has turned out to be pretty useless. It hasn't helped to talk 'bout it, and the responses, though some well-meaning, arent really helpful.

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You also need to learn some humility. Several people (though not all admitidly) have tried to point out things that you do not see or agree with, so you tag them as not helpful. You have the blinders on.

Poker is cruel, period. That is why you got the responses you did, becuase they are the truth. You don't like the truth, that is your problem.

Just because you have made a living for a short period of time doesnt mean you are the lebron of the poker world. Your biggest problem is not your play, but your attitude. I know, i'm not "helpful". I'm wrong. You're right.

Please return to your game.

Tuco.

[Cyndie]

Hubris, hmmmm...great word...exaggerated self-importance. We all probably suffer some of that. I think it comes with long periods of justifiable confidence. I am sure Lebron has studied the game, but will he be able to find the sound advice in the responses, or will he blame the cards?

Victims get to be so unattractive and boring. Survivors aren't. Maybe the IQ of some of us isn't as high, but if we find a way to win, maybe we are not quite so dumb after all. Do you think?

[Cyndie]

Hubris, hmmmm...great word...exaggerated self-importance. We all probably suffer some of that. I think it comes with long periods of justifiable confidence. I am sure Lebron has studied the game, but will he be able to find the sound advice in the responses, or will he blame the cards?

Victims get to be so unattractive and boring. Survivors aren't. Maybe the IQ of some of us isn't as high, but if we find a way to win, maybe we are not quite so dumb after all. Do you think?

In other words, if he doesn't realize he ain't the only wiz kid on this block...he ain't a wiz kid.