Blumpkin Told Me To Post This 75 Hand - Enormous Pot

Jeffage · #1 12-04-2005, 11:02 PM

Ok, 75-150 and this was a pretty interesting hand. I wasn't gonna post it, but the Blumper talked me into it. Good action game. Very loose player completes with an ace up (one ace dead). Folded to me with (Q,5) Q and I go ahead and hit it one more time. Guy next to act coldcalls 150 with a jack up (jacks are live). He is a decent player but is getting buried in this game and has gone in a number of times. He's got chips in front of him for this hand though. Anyway, folded back to the ace who reraises to 225. I curse myself and call, and the guy with the jack now caps. So I'm thinking he's rolled. Great. We both call.

4th Street

Villian A: (x,x) A 2

Hero: (Q,5) Q Q

Villian B: (x,x) J 9

Well, looky here, I caught my miracle card. I go ahead and bet 150 and both call.

5th Street

Villian A: (x,x) A 2 3

Hero: (Q,5) Q Q 7

Villian B: (x,x) J 9 10

I bet, both call.

6th Street

Villian A: (x,x) A 2 3 4

Hero: (Q,5) Q Q 7 2

Villian B: (x,x) J 9 10 Q

I could have used that queen. Arg, this is a tough spot with me opening the betting. But I bet 150. Both call.

Let's plan for the river. What is our plan if we improve? What about if we don't? Any other streets are up for grabs too (partic 6th). But on the river, if we boat, we bet I assume. What about if not?

This may or may not be interesting...

Jeff

jon_1van · #2 12-04-2005, 11:31 PM

If I bet 6th without much hesitation...I auto bet 7th w/o looking at my river card.

If I hesisitated on 6th, I hesitate, look at my card, and bet.

It will be hard for the A234 to raise you with a higher possible straight and you behind. You just have to hope you don't get raised by the 9TJQ. Anyway, if 9TJQ really did have rolled Jacks, which it sounds like he could have, you don't have to worry too much. Yeah he has lots of outs, but he might not raise hit straight outs...might.

I bet because I couldn't make the fold. I also think your "bet, raise, 2-back to you scenario might happen here"

Michael Emery · #3 12-05-2005, 12:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]

It will be hard for the A234 to raise you with a higher possible straight and you behind. You just have to hope you don't get raised by the 9TJQ. Anyway, if 9TJQ really did have rolled Jacks, which it sounds like he could have, you don't have to worry too much. Yeah he has lots of outs, but he might not raise hit straight outs...might.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is well put. IMO opinion you should be betting 7th here regardless of if you improve or not.

Mike Emery

blumpkin22 · #4 12-05-2005, 01:06 AM

Arguments could be made for betting no matter what. On the other hand, one could argue that Jeff should checkraise no matter what.

benwood · #5 12-05-2005, 03:24 AM

I'd like to hear the argument for check-raising no matter what.Could you explain please?

blumpkin22 · #6 12-05-2005, 05:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to hear the argument for check-raising no matter what.Could you explain please?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it's pretty clear we're up against rolled up jacks and split aces. Additionally they both have straight possibilities. However, it is unlikely Hero is going to get raised even if villain B makes jacks full. As previous posters mentioned, villain B would probably call and go for the overcall from villain A rather than risk being 3-bet by a better full house. And villain A is only going to raise if he makes the miracle aces full.

So initially it seems like bet no matter what, and 3-bet if you fill if villain B raises (what if villain B calls, and then villain A raises?).

The idea behind the checkraise is that villain B will bet trip jacks if checked to. Originally I thought this would be the case because after the dead queen and the river check, he might not give Jeff credit for trip queens anymore. I no longer believe this, though. He might think you have trip queens and are scared that he filled up, or that either of the players hit a straight. However, if he does bet trip jacks, villain A calls, and then Jeff raises, how can Jeff have any hand except for queens full? Jeff thought that he might be capable of laying down jacks full. I'm not convinced of this either, but this was the idea.

Essentially the river decision comes down to (a) will he raise jacks full, (b) will he bet trip jacks or a straight if checked to, and (c) will he ever fold anything better than trip queens to a checkraise. If (b) were true I would say the best play is to bet with just trip queens and checkraise with queens full. However, I think the smart safe play is to bet either way.

beta1607 · #7 12-05-2005, 01:25 AM

if you get raise unimproved?

beta1607 · #8 12-04-2005, 11:38 PM

I think you are giving away a lot of value if you do not bet 6th. Even if you do happen to be behind you have a lot of outs to improve.

I cant see myself folding this hand to a raise if I don't fill up so I would advocate check/calling if you don't improve.

If you do fill up then bet and hope to 3 bet.

BTirish · #9 12-04-2005, 11:39 PM

It seems betting out UI is right. It'd be helpful to know some of the dead cards... any 8's or K's dead? But anyways, I think he's unlikely to raise even with J's full, since he will probably drive out the overcall and face a 3-bet if you have Q's full. But it depends on the opponent, I guess.

So, unless the opponent's style gives me a reason to do otherwise, I'd bet out without checking the river card.

Jeffage · #10 12-05-2005, 08:10 AM

Ok, I have to go into the shower, but one interesting thought I just had...if I bet the river blind, won't my opponents think it's likely I went into the river with just trips and not a full house? After all, if I had a boat, why would I want to scare either of my opponents - I want the call. If I bet blind, it may give the impression I don't want to miss a bet but I also don't want to get raised. This could prompt Jacks full or a straight to raise me on the river. Just a thought...I haven't really thought it through yet though.

Jeff