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#31
11-23-2005, 05:27 PM
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Re: reasons not to slowplay flopped nuts #37
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[ QUOTE ] The number one reason to not slowplay is that you should be trying to build a pot early on. [/ QUOTE ] The number one reason to slowplay is that you will get more action later on. [/ QUOTE ] I think the original post meant the opposite of what your saying. The bigger the pot is on the river, the more value you can extract. With TPTK, no flush no st8 no pair on the river. Will you call 1/2 the pot? 1/3 pot? If your going to call a 1/3 pot bet, does it matter if the pot is $10 or $100? nope. 
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#32
11-23-2005, 05:29 PM
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Re: reasons not to slowplay flopped nuts #37
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This is so wrong. You want to build a pot. You will only get paid off later if a) villain completes draw and b) villain is dumb enough not to realize you slowplayed a hand better than his completed draw. You have to get the money in at some point. I don't think anyone is advocating making PSB, but you have to build a pot. Making a 1/3 pot bet on the flop and/or turn is usually a very good way to go about doing this. Give the illusion that you are trying to protect a hand against whatever draw you are going up against. Checking to the river and trying to get into a raising war or trying to trap an idiot is not the best way to build a pot IMO. [/ QUOTE ] What about Two pair? Lower Full House? It's only a pot bet on the River. Villains reading you for a bluff and coming over the top?? Also, how are 1/3 pot bets going to give the illusion you are trying to protect the pot??? You're giving odds to everything under the sun!
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#33
11-23-2005, 05:34 PM
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Re: reasons not to slowplay flopped nuts #37
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Also, how are 1/3 pot bets going to give the illusion you are trying to protect the pot??? You're giving odds to everything under the sun! [/ QUOTE ] We're trying to give them odds here, we clearly have a strong, not likely beatable, hand. A flush or str8 is not going to hurt us. If you bet something on this turn, they will call with a lot of hands, or possibly even raise us. If they have absolutely nothing, we weren't getting any money anyway.
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#34
11-23-2005, 05:34 PM
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Re: reasons not to slowplay flopped nuts #37
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This is definately the case in 1) limit games and 2) tournaments, where in case 1, the size of the bet increases no matter what's in the pot and in case 2, where trying to bust other people is very important. However, in no-limit and pot-limit games, the size of the bet that you can make is directly related to the size of the pot (in no-limit this is not a rule of the game but is still a function of pot odds that you are laying your opponent). Consider this example: I have AA in the SB and decide to complete so my opponent doesn't fold immediately. The pot is now 2BB. If I somehow am lucky enough that my opponent flops top pair and calls pot sized bets all the way down, the final pot will be (2 + 4 + 8 + 16) = 30BB. However, if I simply raised it to 3BB preflop, I can now get a potential pot size of (6 + 12 + 24 + 48) = 90BB. Simply by betting 3BB preflop, I have increased the size of the final pot 3-fold! The same kind of thinking happens on every street. If you check through on a street instead of betting where you could have increased the pot, you will cut the size of the final pot by some factor x (usually 2). So to be able to profit from a slowplay like this, you have to be positive that your opponent will 1) pay you off with a hand that is worse than yours (which is not an unreasonable assumption if he improves) 2) improve enough to pay off SUBSANTIALLY more but still not enough to beat you (this is the unlikely part). -Doom [/ QUOTE ] Lol, the AA example is a little extreme. Your analysis is correct except the last few sentences. All Villains need to have is something like AJo and hit an overcard to be willing to call a pot bet from someone who did not show any pre-River aggression. Or just a 7 perhaps even. This is $25 stakes we're talking about here. Oh yea, don't forget about potential bluff attempts by Villains.
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#35
11-23-2005, 05:37 PM
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Re: reasons not to slowplay flopped nuts #37
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[ QUOTE ] If they don't have a draw then what river card could possibly wake them up? Also, in regard to your pot building thoughts. If stacks were 200bb deep, you think you can extract more $$$$$ from villian by checking to the river then by building a a pot on the flop and turn [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Any card. If it's higher than 9, it will make someone top two pair. If it's lower than 9, it will make a lower Full House. The only hands you're afraid of are AA-TT but that's only about 7% of their range. How many players at $25 tables fold to a pot sized bet on the River from someone who did not show any aggression pre-River with two pair or better?? [/ QUOTE ] I guess your strategy is fine if all you want to win is a $6 bet on the river, though I would guess that a pot-sized river bet will fold villains out 75% of the time, so your expected value is $1.50. I would rather gives drawers odds they perceive to be correct to stay in the hand and build up a pot and get them pot committed. If these guys have air, no amount of fancy playing is going to get them to commit their stacks, they need to have a solid second best hand here. Many times they won't so you settle on taking it down on the turn.
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#36
11-23-2005, 05:38 PM
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Re: reasons not to slowplay flopped nuts #37
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I think the original post meant the opposite of what your saying. The bigger the pot is on the river, the more value you can extract. With TPTK, no flush no st8 no pair on the river. Will you call 1/2 the pot? 1/3 pot? If your going to call a 1/3 pot bet, does it matter if the pot is $10 or $100? nope. [/ QUOTE ] Will I call with TPTK? Yes, if not bet it myself. But if Villain has something like AJ, and hits an overcard on the River, by betting pre-River you just lost the money you would have made on the River.
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#38
11-23-2005, 05:42 PM
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Re: reasons not to slowplay flopped nuts #37
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[ QUOTE ] You're giving odds to everything under the sun! [/ QUOTE ] That's the correct play here. Can't you see why? [/ QUOTE ] It sure is [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]! But it sure won't give the illusion that we're TRYING to protect the pot! read the post I responded to
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#39
11-23-2005, 05:44 PM
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Re: reasons not to slowplay flopped nuts #37
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I guess your strategy is fine if all you want to win is a $6 bet on the river, though I would guess that a pot-sized river bet will fold villains out 75% of the time, so your expected value is $1.50. I would rather gives drawers odds they perceive to be correct to stay in the hand and build up a pot and get them pot committed. If these guys have air, no amount of fancy playing is going to get them to commit their stacks, they need to have a solid second best hand here. Many times they won't so you settle on taking it down on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] This is what I was trying to say, but as usual, you articulated the concept better than I did.
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#40
11-23-2005, 05:45 PM
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Re: reasons not to slowplay flopped nuts #37
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I guess your strategy is fine if all you want to win is a $6 bet on the river, though I would guess that a pot-sized river bet will fold villains out 75% of the time, so your expected value is $1.50. I would rather gives drawers odds they perceive to be correct to stay in the hand and build up a pot and get them pot committed. If these guys have air, no amount of fancy playing is going to get them to commit their stacks, they need to have a solid second best hand here. Many times they won't so you settle on taking it down on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] This is what I was trying to say, but as usual, you articulated the concept better than I did. [/ QUOTE ] Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds a nut [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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