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#31
11-19-2005, 12:19 AM
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Re: 5/10 i hate unraised pots
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] People want to fold in a 3-handed pot?? Please play at my table. SB is at least betting any A, 2, 3, 4, 5, pocket pair or flush draw and maybe a lot more hands than that. We are ahead of most of those hands and we have outs. Plus most of the hands we fear might have raised preflop to isolate the limper. Remember this guy is getting 3-1 to bet two cards leftover from a Mille Bornes deck. Any outs he may have are just gravy. [/ QUOTE ] You're seriously underestimating how passive people are at 5/10. This flop would get checked to UTG like 75% of the time [/ QUOTE ] No. In an unraised pot, people take stabs. That means they take stabs with absolutely nothing (we have had some threads about doing this, and a lot of TAGs like to do it), and they also will bet with virtually any piece of the board. They cannot try to check raise, as they have no indication that anyone will bet. That means, as StellerWind said, they are betting As (note, they probably don't have A9+, as they woulda raised preflop), any 2 (there are a ton they could have, completing from the SB), any 4 (also, a ton they could have), a gutshot (with a 3, they won't always bet, but a good portion they will), a 5 (we have 2 of em, so it isn't that likely, but it could happen), or a flush draw. They could also be betting absolutely anything else. UTG is not likely to be ahead of us, and SB may, or may not be, but more often than not, I think he is behind. I still don't understand folding here. I love that StellarWind is on my side, because with him on your side, you virtually can't be wrong [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. 
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#32
11-19-2005, 03:09 AM
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Re: 5/10 i hate unraised pots
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] we have 6 full outs? [/ QUOTE ] It's pretty frequently 6 full outs [/ QUOTE ] Which means we don't have 6 full outs. [/ QUOTE ] Actually, it means that we have more than 6 full outs. Rob
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#33
11-19-2005, 04:12 AM
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Re: 5/10 i hate unraised pots
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] we have 6 full outs? [/ QUOTE ] It's pretty frequently 6 full outs [/ QUOTE ] Which means we don't have 6 full outs. [/ QUOTE ] Actually, it means that we have more than 6 full outs. Rob [/ QUOTE ] ent, what is the play here. If we are ahead, then what do we feel comfortable with on the turn to be honest. Stellar Wind has given his argument for raising, is that what you are advocating or are you advvocating a call. I'm kinda confused as to what you are saying to be honest
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#34
11-19-2005, 04:26 AM
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Re: 5/10 i hate unraised pots
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] we have 6 full outs? [/ QUOTE ] It's pretty frequently 6 full outs [/ QUOTE ] Which means we don't have 6 full outs. [/ QUOTE ] Actually, it means that we have more than 6 full outs. Rob [/ QUOTE ] ent, what is the play here. If we are ahead, then what do we feel comfortable with on the turn to be honest. Stellar Wind has given his argument for raising, is that what you are advocating or are you advvocating a call. I'm kinda confused as to what you are saying to be honest [/ QUOTE ] I don't have a clear-cut play here. There are a lot of opponents that I'll call with, but it really depends on UTG. I have folded, raised, and called with this sort of hand in this situation before. I'd probably say overall I fold more than I raise, and I call more than I fold. Somewhere along those lines. Rob
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#35
11-19-2005, 09:42 AM
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Re: 5/10 i hate unraised pots
[ QUOTE ]
I love that StellarWind is on my side, because with him on your side, you virtually can't be wrong [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. [/ QUOTE ] That is exactly what I was thinking. I just wish I could explain my position as well as Stellar.
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#36
11-19-2005, 11:44 AM
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Re: 5/10 i hate unraised pots
I am going to make some assumptions here that I think are at least close to the truth. My numbers will definetly be off, but this situation will get way too complicated if I don't simplify with some guesses about how our opponents will play.
First off, this is an unraised pot, so SB will bet with any ace, any 2, any 4, any flush draw. Next, if he has a 3, he might bet with his gutshot, so I will say he bets his 3 50% of the time. I will say that the same will go if he has a 5. He will also bet any pocket pair. Now, not all opponents are this agressive, but I think the fact that some opponents will steal with even less of a hand compensates for the fact that some opponents check with these hands. OK, now how many combos of hands is SB betting with. We have to remember that he didn't raise preflop, so that cuts out a large portion of what he could be holding (lets assume he wasn't getting tricky preflop and completing with a strong hand). Aces: He could have A6, A7, A8, A9 (only 50% A9, since some guys will raise this prefop), which brings us to 39 combos. Ace +: He could have A2, A3, A4, A5, which would either be 2 pair, or a pair with a straight draw for 34 combos. Ace and flush draw: 5 from above PP: He could have 66, 77, 88 (50% for 88, I think many guys raise this preflop), which brings us to 15 combos. Pair of 2s: He might have 23s, 24s, 25s, K2s, Q2s, J2s, and even these a lot of people won't play, so I will discount by 50% and give him 7 combos. Pair of 4s: He might have 43s, 45s, 46s, 47s, K4s, Q2s, J2s, but I will discount a bit, and bring the full 20 combos down to 14 combos. Pair of 3s: 6 combos Lone 3: 36s, K3s, Q3s, J3s, discounted slightly I will count 10 combos. Lone 5: 56s, 57s, 58s, K5s, Q5s, J5s, discounted a bit and I will count 10 combos. Straight: 53s, 2 combos. Flush draw: K2, K3, K6-K9, Q2, Q3, Q6-Q9, J2, J3, J6-J9, T2, T3, T6-T9, 96-98, 86, 87, 76, or 30 combos. Thats enough for now, I will follow up with analysis of these hand ranges later.
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