|
|
#31
11-09-2005, 04:59 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
I think its a little trickier than that lloyd. you have to consider the likelihood of finishing in each spot, not just your share of the prize pool i think. im not disputing the result, I just think the method is overly simplistic.
|
|
#32
11-09-2005, 05:00 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
[ QUOTE ]
You're guaranteed $1200. The total prize pool remaining is $19,700. Let's say you're 50/50 versus his range although I think you might be even a little ahead. If you fold, you're left with 214,000 out of 2,500,000. So you've got 8.56% of the chips for a $EV of $1,686. If you call. You'll lose 50% of the time and have a $EV of $0. The other 50% you'll win and have 814,000 chips. That's 32.5% of the total for a $EV of $6,414. So the $EV of calling is $3,207 clearly ahead of that of folding. In this case, it was such a no brainer because of the pot odds that I knew it would be cEV and $EV. [/ QUOTE ] atually just changed my mind about this. You didn't figure out $EV.. you just changed the units for cEV. for $EV you need the probability to finish in each spot. or to estimate, take a guess at what you're worth w/ 800k stack, or w/ 200k stack. edit: by changing units i mean, all you did was insetad of MLG having 800k chips, he had $3000. But that doesnt translate into actually figuring out what he's worth.
|
|
#33
11-09-2005, 05:02 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
No, you don't. The way I calculated $EV is a fairly well established (albeit not pefect) method. What you are discussing is ICM which also has its problems. I try and stick with methods that I can quickly calculate (or at least approximate) in my head so that they actually become useful at the table.
|
|
#34
11-09-2005, 05:03 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
[ QUOTE ]
I think its a little trickier than that lloyd. you have to consider the likelihood of finishing in each spot, not just your share of the prize pool i think. im not disputing the result, I just think the method is overly simplistic. [/ QUOTE ] agreed. chip count method misses the horror of busting when there are two tiny stacks, and also overvalues a really big stack. but nobody has a fancy icm program for more than 3 payouts, right?
|
|
#35
11-09-2005, 05:03 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
yeah, I call.
|
|
#36
11-09-2005, 05:04 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
[ QUOTE ]
No, you don't. The way I calculated $EV is a fairly well established (albeit not pefect) method. What you are discussing is ICM which also has its problems. I try and stick with methods that I can quickly calculate (or at least approximate) in my head so that they actually become useful at the table. [/ QUOTE ] No, you really didnt calculate anything about $EV. You just showed chip EV w/ differnet units Using what you did, cEV and EV will always be the same thing.
|
|
#37
11-09-2005, 05:05 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
The only mental modification I would make is that if the small stacks are SO short stacked that there is very little chance for them to move up in the money. In that case, I would consider just folding pre-flop. If that's not the case, I believe my calculations are close enough.
I understand it's a little simplistic but I think it's accurate enough.
|
|
#39
11-09-2005, 05:27 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: HOLDEM or FOLDEM
I think by far the most likely outcome is that you have 5 outs, so I fold. (But while I know you said not to say anything yet, I push the flop. Let's talk about the minraise when you post the results, I think that's the more important part of this hand.)
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
