Too Unlucky For Poker?

Here's a good example of the type of hand I used in my notes. Just to make sure we're clear on this... Every hand I wrote down I was ahead at the time I went all-in. Whether it was before or after the flop. In some of those situations I was the short stack, in others I was the chip leader. But in most of them our stacks were pretty close to even. Anyway, here's a perfect example of my bad luck
and the way it seems to hunt me down in tournaments.

In a $10 tourney on Full Tilt. It's just after the first break, the blinds are 60/120, and I have about 2500 chips. I'm on the big blind with QT offsuit. Five or six players limp in and I just check. (If that's the wrong thing to do please let me know.) The flop comes AKJ rainbow. I flopped the nut straight with no threat of a flush. I debated whether to check or bet and decided my hand was strong enough to risk a check and hope someone bets into it. (Again, if that's the wrong play, let me know.) The player to my left, who has about 4000 chips, bets about 1/2 the pot. Everyone else folds around to me and raise 3x his bet. He thinks for a second and the moves all-in. A million ideas go through my mind trying to figure out what he could have. Did he flop a set? Or is it possible that we both have the straight? Either way I couldn't make myself fold the nut straight, so I called. He shows A5 offsuit. What am I at this point, about 97% to win? Well, the turn was another A and the river was a 5.

Now, here comes the really good part. The guy actually called me an idiot for calling his all-in. And to add insult to injury he finished 3rd in the tourney.

If that's not bad luck, then what is it?

[Lestat]

<font color="blue"> If that's not bad luck, then what is it? </font>

That is atrocious luck... You also played this particular hand fine.

Unfortunately, that's part of the game. You said yourself that you were a 97% favorite. This time, that 3% came in. But use your own figures. 97% of the time, you'll have doubled through. You can't tell me that you're losing as a 97% favorite 100% of the time. If you get into that very same situation 100 times, you can figure to win right around 97 of them. It won't be exactly 97, because you may be luckier (or unluckier), for that set of 100 hands. But you WILL be ahead when the smoke clears!!!

Now if you're trying to tell us that you're losing those 97% favorites 100% of the time, or even often enough to not be winning, then you have to consider that you're not getting unlucky, you're getting cheated.

The bottom line is I suspect you're losing some hands like this, but also losing others due to improper play. Again, look at your play. Post some hands which aren't as obvious as this one. Post the ones that aren't clear and where you had difficulty. It's thinking about THOSE hands that will make a difference. You can't do anything about the above hand. It was just bad luck.

[sweetjazz]

Lock yourself in your room. You're so unlucky that the next time you go outside, you'll probably be struck dead by lightning.

Seriously, your theory is stupid and you're wasting your time if you spend it counting how many times you take a bad beat. Besides, there's much more to life than poker.

Losing a loved one, getting cancer, being seated next to Phil Hellmuth at a poker tournament...now that's unlucky.

[4ever]

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When I get all my money in with the best hand I usually expect to lose.

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Negative thinking brings negative outcomes.

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No it doesn't.

My friend... Youre just letting yourself become another pattern recognizing human, allowing yourself to be convinced be something you see when you know (maybe not, but you should) that all that matters in the long run are the mathematical facts.

P.S. It would help if you weren't misplaying the hands up to the all in point.

I went on a streak like that for a few weeks a few months after I started playing. One unbelievable BB after another. It got to where I was shocked when an opponent didn't hit trips on the river. But I hung in there KNOWING, while not necessarily BELIEVING that it would end. And it did. To be honest I always figured that if I could get this unlucky over and over and over, maybe it meant the poker gods had some serious crazy good luck in store for me when I get on the biggest stage. That's rational.

Now having said that. Just like somewhere out there is the world's worst doctor, somewhere out there is the world's unluckiest poker player, who could in theory have a life-long bad luck streak. The anti-Raymer if you will. Doesn't mean his luck couldn't turn around tomorrow, but it just never does. God help you if you're that guy.

(Ha - actually I think Raymer's a great player, but boy does he to get the cards when he needs em.)

IMHO, even as a newbie, you are being far too simplistic. I have seen much, much more success with KK head's up or 3 way, NOT 6-8 way unless you hit the flop. It wouldn't surprise me to see you lose 60+% of the "best pre-flop hands" by the river, but that doesn't mean very much. It might explain why you are doing better at Limit, though.

By the way, it sounded like J 9 off had pot odds to make the call. It wasn't costing him but 33% of his stack. You were risking 100%. Yes, I would have called instantly.

[Xhad]

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By the way, it sounded like J 9 off had pot odds to make the call. It wasn't costing him but 33% of his stack. You were risking 100%. Yes, I would have called instantly.

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Please get out of this thread immediately. This type of atrocious advice is the last thing OP needs. J9o did not have pot odds and stack% has nothing to do with it.

EDIT: OK, actually it's theoretically possible if Hero's stack was small enough, but doubtful because if hero's stack was that tiny he probably wouldn't have considered folding. Either way, stack size has nothing to do with it and saying "It's only 1/3 of his stack" reveals some very confused thinking.

you're unlucky. mever play poker again. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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If you are playing good poker, you will win eventually.

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ahahaha the chances of OP EVER having played good poker is zero.

[EverettKings]

Tony, I know what you mean. I used to think that back when I was starting to get a hold of the game. I'd play tight. I'd trap. I'd only bet with the best hand. But seemingly someone always called without the proper odds and sucked out and I went home broke. Just not lucky right?

Wrong. Yeah some of it is crap luck, but your real problem is a hidden version of reverse implied odds. In other words, you have AK on a A84 flop after raising preflop, say the pot is 6 bucks. You bet 2. Some idiot calls with A3. You know you have him outkicked. You're drooling. Turn is a J. You bet 3, he calls. River is a 3. You bet 5, he raises to 20, you call. He shows a rivered two pair, you scowl and curse about your [censored] luck.

But what just happened? When you had the best hand, you bet a little to keep them on the line. But as soon as they got ahead, they bet a ton and made up for their drawing hand by winning 10x what they'd lose if they didn't suck out. In other words, they got paid off on their longshot draw because you couldn't believe your eyes. Maybe even with that $20 payday they didn't have the odds, but not by much.

The solution? Get flipping AGGRESSIVE, but in the RIGHT spots. More postflop than preflop (in fact, raising less preflop will keep the pot smaller and make them make bigger mistakes postflop and keep you from getting sucked in). Bet the pot on the flop. Bet 3/4 pot on the turn. And when he raises you on the river there? Fold. CLEARLY he wouldn't be making that raise without a hand that beats AK. Deep down you know that, but you couldnt fold out of disbelief. Don't pay them off when they suck out, and charge them ALL (not some, ALL) of their chips when you're ahead. You're bright enough to figure out the difference.

And some of this is variance. Though some of it isn't. You may think I'm telling you stuff you already know, but I'd be willing to bet there's some truth to it. And most of all, if you can't have fun at poker when you lose, then DONT PLAY. You're not trying to put your kids through college here, so why suffer?

Good luck.

Everett