Bellagio 10/20 hand

[neon]

I thought for a bit, called villain's turn bet, and then quickly bet $3k on a river blank. Villain didn't agonize for too long before muttering, "Ok, you win," and mucking his hand. He then picked his chips up and left.

In retrospect, I think he either had KK or was bluffing. I really think that given image/metagame considerations, AA looks me up on the river, but then again, perhaps $3K was a bit too much. During the hand, my thought process was basically that if villain has a set, all the money's going in no matter what, and that if he had a one-pair bluff hand, he wasn't putting another dime in once I called his turn raise. It seemed optimal to play the hand as if he had AA/KK, and so I tried to take a line that would look like AQ or perhaps KK, hoping to capitalize upon our recent history and get him to pay off with one pair in a spot he probably almost never would.

The weak lead on the turn is something I don't often see from strong hands, so I thought it would look like either an AQ-ish hand, or perhaps just some vulnerable holding in general, and that villain would try to blow me off my hand no matter what he had.

It was from there that I didn't really know how to proceed. I considered Coltrane's idea of min-reraising, but thought that the effective stacks were a tad too shallow for that to work, as it would in essence be the same as pushing the turn, since the rest is obviously going in on the river anyway. That line is great, though, for keeping up my full-of-[censored] appearance.


I also think, judging by his comment and the fact that he left the table immediately following the hand, that there's a chance he was bluffing and that he might have pushed if I had checked to him on the river. Oh well. I don't think I gave this possibility quite enough thought during the hand, instead focusing on how to get the money from AA or perhaps KK.

Thanks for all the replies.

[lapoker17]

I didn't really follow this thread, so this was probably already covered, but I think this has to be a no brainer, call the turn-raise/check the river. It probably won't work that often, but as I see it it's the only way you get any more money here ever.

[okayplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
I also think, judging by his comment and the fact that he left the table immediately following the hand, that there's a chance he was bluffing and that he might have pushed if I had checked to him on the river. Oh well. I don't think I gave this possibility quite enough thought during the hand, instead focusing on how to get the money from AA or perhaps KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you think that his bluff frequency here has to be pretty big for a check to be correct? I didn't do the exact math, but guesstimate that it has to be ~32% or higher. (I guess this assumes he calls a half stack bet on river with AA/KK...) What bluff % did you estimate him to have there (in the heat of the moment and maybe post hand)?

[cero_z]

Hey neon,

Thanks for the detailed anlaysis and the results. Given the way you described this player, he sounds very good, and he would be a candidate for the type of guy to use the 2500 to get to the showdown "cheaply", when he feels that he really needs to get to the showdown. A lot of folks just can't stomach putting 2500 in there when they think they're behind fairly often--I think this is bad thinking. If it loses the least, it loses the least, even if the "least" stings.