Best Day Ever! (shameless brag post)

[brazilio]

So you're an idiot.

[MyTurn2Raise]

my last 6 months look so pathetic compared to this.

I'm humbled. I must work harder.

[edge]

[ QUOTE ]
How is this absolutely wrong? If you are winning 20 bucks an hour in the long term, and one hour you win 100 dollars, then you actually did not make 100 dollars. You made 20 dollars....in the long term.

Every hour you play you make 20 dollars regardless of how much you actually win or lose in the short term.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah; that's not really how money works. When I win 100 dollars in an hour, I just won 100 dollars. I can do whatever I want with it. Assuming my winrate is 20 dollars/hour (now maybe it's 21?), I now expect to make 21 dollars/hour in the future when I keep playing.

Isn't this a case of gambler's fallacy again? Winning $100 this hour has no effect on next hour's winnings, just like black hitting this time has no effect on the next spin. It's just that I expect to make $20 for every hour I play, just like the casino expects to make 2% or whatever for every spin. It will most likely even out in the end, like when you flip a coin 1000 times, but for now, it's still $100 and definitely not $20 in any way.

[MyTurn2Raise]

yep...gambler's fallacy
100 heads in a row doesn't mean tails is more likely in the future. The chance is still 1/2

The fact you made $100 in the past hour or whatever doesn't change your future expectation of $20/hr unless the $100 reflects revised abilities and a change of future potential.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just remember this is not your money to keep.

This is your money to hold on to until your true winrate pans out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is this absolutely wrong? If you are winning 20 bucks an hour in the long term, and one hour you win 100 dollars, then you actually did not make 100 dollars. You made 20 dollars....in the long term.

Every hour you play you make 20 dollars regardless of how much you actually win or lose in the short term.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you really would have made $100. That's real money and is yours to keep. Your future win rate is still expected to be $20/hr. It's not like it will be -$20/hr for the next two hours to even things out. This doesn't mean that long term, his average win rate will be higher than $20/hr, though. As the number of hours played approaches infinity, his actual winrate will approach $20/hr.

After 1 hour -> $100/hr

After 5 hours -> $36/hr ({100 + 4*20} / 5)

After 50 hours -> $21.60/hr ({100 + 49*20} / 50)

After 500 hours -> $20.16/hr ({100 + 499*20} / 500)

After inf hours -> $20/hr

[Prelude008]

Congrats! What was your playing progression (limits/time) to get to 100/200?

[stoxtrader]

can I join in the fun?

[La Brujita]

Stox,

I think I hate you a little bit. What was this four handed mostly?

[Sponger15SB]

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can I join in the fun?

[/ QUOTE ]

My day...

I hate you all.

I don't want to play $1/$2 anymore. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]