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#31
10-27-2005, 03:55 AM
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Re: I just got tabled coached (LC)
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One thing I really dont like about just calling this flop is that the SB is still to act behind you. I would like to see your hand a notch better or 2 better to make this call for this specific reason. [/ QUOTE ] this is a very good point . i didnt thnk about it at the time all i thought about was "7:1...this douche is trying to push me off...i will call..." 
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#32
10-27-2005, 04:00 AM
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Re: I just got tabled coached (LC)
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[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] surf your points are valid, but re my lsat post, you are not terribly worried about protection on this board are you, and imo if you bloat the pot it's just so that baron will justify calling down with A-h. We have no read on SB, but and SB call also gives us information about his hand, imo a SB call often has Qs, so a donk actually says a little more strength because I think SB is often looking to CR the flop (perhaps he thinks he's protecting his hand and getting you out). Anyway just some musings. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, the more I read the flop the less I think of the call. The spirit of it is great, but this spot is very poor. SB may often be going for the c/r, and CCing hands like connectors hit this board relatively often (QJ/QTs, 87/76/65/54). If baron were closing the action he might be able to get away with it. Surf [/ QUOTE ] well regardless, i dont think its VERY -EV...it may be even EV, or slightly +EV, or slightly -EV. who knows. i make a ton of read based plays in my play every day and i think we need to as poker players. maybe this wasnt the right spot but it helped affirm my read and i got him to spew like a madman in the meantime. [/ QUOTE ] If you know he'll go off for bets when you suck out, then that might make it +ev. That said, I think the play is pretty clearly slightly -ev; however, this is offset some by helping to discourage people from trying to push you off of hands, which is HUGE. Anything to keep people from taking shots at you especially short handed is often worth investing a good deal of EV in.
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#33
10-27-2005, 04:00 AM
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Re: I just got tabled coached (LC)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] One thing I really dont like about just calling this flop is that the SB is still to act behind you. I would like to see your hand a notch better or 2 better to make this call for this specific reason. [/ QUOTE ] this is a very good point . i didnt thnk about it at the time all i thought about was "7:1...this douche is trying to push me off...i will call..." [/ QUOTE ] Paranoid much?
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#34
10-27-2005, 04:03 AM
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Re: I just got tabled coached (LC)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] surf your points are valid, but re my lsat post, you are not terribly worried about protection on this board are you, and imo if you bloat the pot it's just so that baron will justify calling down with A-h. We have no read on SB, but and SB call also gives us information about his hand, imo a SB call often has Qs, so a donk actually says a little more strength because I think SB is often looking to CR the flop (perhaps he thinks he's protecting his hand and getting you out). Anyway just some musings. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, the more I read the flop the less I think of the call. The spirit of it is great, but this spot is very poor. SB may often be going for the c/r, and CCing hands like connectors hit this board relatively often (QJ/QTs, 87/76/65/54). If baron were closing the action he might be able to get away with it. Surf [/ QUOTE ] well regardless, i dont think its VERY -EV...it may be even EV, or slightly +EV, or slightly -EV. who knows. i make a ton of read based plays in my play every day and i think we need to as poker players. maybe this wasnt the right spot but it helped affirm my read and i got him to spew like a madman in the meantime. [/ QUOTE ] If you know he'll go off for bets when you suck out, then that might make it +ev. That said, I think the play is pretty clearly slightly -ev; however, this is offset some by helping to discourage people from trying to push you off of hands, which is HUGE. Anything to keep people from taking shots at you especially short handed is often worth investing a good deal of EV in. [/ QUOTE ] agree on all points i think... also, this isnt a typical play for me. obviously i fold this flop 99% of the time. HU with this read I call every time. 3 way with this read i think i should call when the 3rd player is weak or i sense something weird.
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#35
10-27-2005, 04:38 AM
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Re: I just got tabled coached (angry, but there\'s content!)
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on a separate note, i know everyone is just gonna tell me to fold this flop and move on. but i dont want to. if i know what he has and i have two overs then why the hell should i fold. [/ QUOTE ] How can you know what he has after defending the BB and making ONE flop bet? Even with a read, that just looks like you being optimistic and putting him on the right hand to justify a call. On top of that you have a player behind you yet to act. As a matter of fact, if BB flipped his hand over on the flop, would you still call, or would you now raise? [ QUOTE ] agree on all points i think... also, this isnt a typical play for me. obviously i fold this flop 99% of the time. HU with this read I call every time. 3 way with this read i think i should call when the 3rd player is weak or i sense something weird. [/ QUOTE ] This type of situation/read comes up all the time. I find it hard to believe you only make this play 1 out of 100 and that one time that you call, you're right about the read; and then continue to hit the turn and river. Are you that much better than the rest of this forum?
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#36
10-27-2005, 05:08 AM
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Re: I just got tabled coached (angry, but there\'s content!)
first off, to say im being optimistic is wrong. a TAG 2p2er knows that c/r a Q there is clearly better than betting a Q. it nets you more money and it isnt HU, it's 3 way with a guy to my left. add that to my read and i think im at least fairly sure.
i think the thing that pushes it to more of a fold is that i have SB behind me. [ QUOTE ] This type of situation/read comes up all the time. I find it hard to believe you only make this play 1 out of 100 [/ QUOTE ] so you're saying that usually when you raise preflop and are donkbet on a ragged flop, you have a read saying that the player's donkbet means he has a mid pair? i think you are exaggerating. my point is that i have a read like this less than a good % of the time, so i just let it go. i obviously do not htink J9 is good on a Qxx flop barring a read. if im the only one in this forum that makes read based plays then so be it. and if this is the case then the answer to your final question is "yes." anyhow, im pretty much done with this thread. after talking with pete in IRC i think this is an even EV call at WORST. i can raise any A, K on the turn, and he will fold a large portion of his range. also, i feel like im drawing live most of the time already. edit: the thing that makes it even EV at worst is that im drawing live a large majority of the time. however, put yourself (as a 2p2er) in his spot with any mid pair . say you are raised on the turn by a TAG who flat called a Qxx flop. the board is now KQxx. do you think you are ahead enough to put in 2bets? i ask, because i do this a FAR smaller % than you would need to make it a profitable call down (i.e. i have a hand that beats you 90+% of the time). that is to say, you would be losing money by making the call down regardless. even when I am on a semi-bluff with a hand like J9 on that board, I have 6-10 outs to your pair and take the pot 1/7 to 1/4 of the time . finally, since i have position on you, i gain an extra bet in implied odds when i hit and you miss a value bet when I miss.
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#37
10-27-2005, 05:08 AM
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Re: I just got tabled coached (LC)
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no, the thing is, MOST of the time ( i would venture to say a large majority, 80-90%), they check/raise top pair (and by "they" i mean bad, predictable TAGs, like this guy) [/ QUOTE ]
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#38
10-27-2005, 05:15 AM
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Re: I just got tabled coached (angry, but there\'s content!)
In the games that I play no one believes you that you have the K or the A. Your pfr is probably seventeen times larger than mine and only the most incredibly unobservant opponent would not notice so I don't think you can pull this off successfully that often.
What is more, the pot isn't that large. Your outs might be dirty. An A or a K won't fall that often and you have to expend two bets at least to represent it and you often will be called down anyway. I think it's -EV and not particularly close.
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