AT hand that's been bugging me

MUBS?

[gopnik]

Would anybody raise this turn?
First, a chance of getting 3-bet by UTG is small because he is scared of the flush.
Second, we might finally get rid of CO.
Third, we'll probably get a free showdown (thus costing us the same number of bets)
Forth, if we get another spade on the river, we bet and make more money.

So, anybody?

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
A lot of passive players freeze up to turn raises - MUBS, etc. If they then go and donk the river into you (or 3bet the turn), it almost always means a hand bigger than TPTK.

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP.

Ahhh... Fixing the mod's post. One of the simple pleasures in life. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
MUBS?

[/ QUOTE ]
Monsters Under the Bed Syndrome.

Fearing a bigger hand after a raise, when there most likely is nothing there.

[SlantNGo]

I thought about it at first, but I don't like it... no fold equity, and too often we're putting in an extra bet when behind. Although it could be argued that the percentage of the time he 3-bets + the percentage of the time he donks the river is less than the percentage of the time he calls a bet when we make the flush on the river, in which case it seems profitable. Read-dependant.

EDIT: I lost track of the pot size... we should raise here, otherwise CO is drawing profitably with a piece of the board.

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
the percentage of the time he 3-bets + the percentage of the time he donks the river is less than the percentage of the time he calls a bet when we make the flush on the river, in which case it seems profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the case.

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A lot of passive players freeze up to turn raises - MUBS, etc. If they then go and donk the river into you (or 3bet the turn), it almost always means a hand bigger than TPTK.

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP.

Ahhh... Fixing the mod's post. One of the simple pleasures in life. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Gah, a simple mistake? At least do a clever FYP. Like:

[ QUOTE ]

While this is a great post in terms of how it was posted (excellent reads, complete thoughts, etc. New players take note!), I think there is a lot more content here than I first thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

FMP.

[DMBFan23]

sup y'all,

comparing this guy's PFR to ours by position doesn't work, even though he raises fewer hands than I do in 6 max (18%), loose players tend to have a more uniform distribution of PFR...open up your pokertracker and look at TAGs and LPPs one by one...the TAGs will have a rising PFR by position to the point where their PFR on the button is 20+, but UTG it will be less than 15. the loosies will have generally uniform PFRs in every position. also, as OP mentioned, strange hands will be mixed in as AK/AA aren't raised everytime (though I never assume this).

that said I fold PF because I don't like my chances of isolating, and playing weaker offsuit stuff like this OOP is annoying. I'm at this table so I can get coldcalled when I have AA/AK, not isolate when I have weaker Aces. it's not terrible but I fold.

postflop is fine, you can't raise the turn with your read IMO. keep the dude around in case you frush up.

EDIT: just wanted to add though, the fact that we have such a good read makes pf way better than against an unknown.

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG is 58/16/.9 I have quite a few hands on this player, and I've seen the reason for such a contrast between the PFR and post-Flop aggression factor is the tendency to open raise weaker hands such as small PP's and Broadway cards like QT and TJ, but play them meekly when nothing hit on the flop. I've also noticed a tendency to overplay TPWK regardless of the action, or possible straight and flush possibilities on the board. Waits for the Turn on all big flopped hands, such as a Set or Trips, or a flopped flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does this read mean that he's not raising AK, QQ, AJ, etc., or what?

Also, is his WTSD% high? Are you ever pushing him off 77 on a dangerous looking board when you have no pair?

If I give him a solid top 16% of hands, which, IMO, is too wide since he's raising UTG, I get this:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,636,933,696 games 4.188 secs 868,417,787 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 51.9851 % 48.61% 03.37% { 66+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 48.0149 % 44.64% 03.37% { ATo }

[lautzutao]

Do we really mind if CO calls here? He's a complete tool according to OP, so if we're out of position against him I don't see what the problem is. As far as button coming along for the ride...I think that's just bad luck.