Spewing with aces - when should i lay it down?

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And the pot is big to fold on the river.

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I think you win this pot well less than 1/100, river is an easy fold

turn is closer, BTN has a monster, JT you are dead to, a set you are live, and the A can't give someone a better hand, since no FD, and no other straight draws, getting 22/1 its still moderately close, since you really don't have much for implied odds here, but calling the river bet, is like shill said donating money

[Shillx]

I think you win this pot well less than 1/100, river is an easy fold

This is what I was driving at when I posted. You are losing a full BB when you call the river. Okay maybe only .99 BB... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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I think you win this pot well less than 1/100, river is an easy fold



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This is an easy fold.

If you can handle having to stab yourself in the eye with a fork when that 1\100 comes around. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[DavidC]

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Don't post results. This includes making a title indicating you lost. This hand is alright. I'd consider raising the turn.

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Unless you're facing someone who's really rockish, I'd agree that raising the turn seems to be the right play. The pot's getting massive, and this could prevent you from being drawn out.

--Dave.

[DavidC]

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At the river: are we 97% sure we're beaten? It's gotta be close, but I still can't fold, especially closing. Is this not one of those situations in which calling could at worst be a small error and folding at worst a major error?

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Taken in a vacuum, sure, you can look at it this way. In the big picture, however, it's all EV. How often do you really think that one pair is good here? It's pretty darn small. There are also TWO other people who think they have a shot against someone who's shown a lot of strength on that turn. Granted, they are probably idiots, and, granted, you are closing the action, but our chances are still dubious. How dubious? Well,

If we win one time in 26.25, we break even.

If we win one time in 30 and call, our EV is about -0.1 BB.

If we win one time in 20 and call, our EV is about +0.3 BB.

Folding cannot be a big mistake for any reasonable probability we assign to our chances of winning.

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this is something a lot of people still don't understand

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Edit: ... and it pisses me off.

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Would this be a spot to call on the flop?

[TomBrooks]

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Lay it down on the flop. Laying it down preflop would look ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]Folding this flop is really really bad IMO

[/ QUOTE ] Would have saved the OP 4 1/2 BB. Whats so bad?

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You have 2757 posts. I am going to assume that you are joking.

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Do you assume that everyone with thousands of posts is joking?

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No I assumed...

[/ QUOTE ]Well, you know what they say about assumptions. Anyway, where is your avatar and location descriptor?

[/ QUOTE ]a reason for doing something on a hand shouldn't relate to the results of that specific hand, but to the optimal play given the information that you have which doesn't include the results...sorry if I offended you.

[/ QUOTE ]Ohh, that's different. No offense taken. Salute and Cheers.

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I think you win this pot well less than 1/100, river is an easy fold



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This is an easy fold.

If you can handle having to stab yourself in the eye with a fork when that 1\100 comes around. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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you know you need to win 4times that often for it to be breakeven, so you are losing money chasing that 1%, which is being generous