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#32
11-04-2005, 04:23 PM
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Re: Guess the lowest integer
There was a contest in one of the forums here, I think it was hotpants. Gave away 25 or so to the person who PM'ed the lowest integer. I believe there was about 40-50 entries. The winner was 1 so I'd go with that.
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#33
11-04-2005, 04:50 PM
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Re: Guess the lowest integer
I would guess that prime mumbers are more likely to be chosen...
and after those, multiples of 2 primes [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] (sorta kidding)
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#34
11-04-2005, 06:19 PM
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Re: Guess the lowest integer
After looking at my collection of books, I realized the correct answer must be 42.
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#35
11-04-2005, 07:21 PM
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Re: Guess the lowest integer
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Very smart, I had a stats professor in college and he had 2 pieces of advice when it came to playing the lottery 1. Don't play (-EV). 2. Only play numbers above 31, if you chose to play. Any set of 6 numbers 1-50 (standard lottery) are equally likely, however people do not choose the numbers equally. The numers 1-31 are heavily played. Thus by only selecting numbers higher than 31 you minimize your chance of having to split the jackpot. BRILLANT! [/ QUOTE ] Is it enough to make it +EV to play? [/ QUOTE ] Refer to 1. [/ QUOTE ] Not always true. There have been lotteries that are +EV. For example powerball has gotten up to $340M. The odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 146M. (55 choose 5) * 42 = 146 107 962 I suppose you might decide to factor in taxes, etc. But even so there are times when the lottery is +EV. Variance is a bitch, though.
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#36
11-04-2005, 08:10 PM
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Re: Guess the lowest integer
[ QUOTE ]
Not always true. There have been lotteries that are +EV. For example powerball has gotten up to $340M. The odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 146M. (55 choose 5) * 42 = 146 107 962 I suppose you might decide to factor in taxes, etc. But even so there are times when the lottery is +EV. Variance is a bitch, though. [/ QUOTE ] But at some point the lottery is so big that it will often be chopped - which makes it -EV again.
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#37
11-05-2005, 02:40 AM
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Re: Guess the lowest integer
[ QUOTE ]
Reverse reverse psychology. Don't chose 1. [/ QUOTE ] Reverse^3 psychology, choose 1. The fact is that most people smart enough to pick 1 are smart enough to expect other smart people to pick 1. In a field of 300 they cant be the only smart one right? So anyone that gets to step 2 likely goes to step 3. ALSO Even if the chance of 1 being unique is, say, only half as likely as 5 being unique, with any number above one you must be unique AND have noone else unique. The fact of the matter is that there's a clear tradeoff between likelyhood to be unique and likelyhood to win if unique. If not 1, then I'd pick 2. If not that then 3. Etc. We should play this game. And I'm gonna tell everyone that I'm picking 1 and show myself writing it. Whatcha gonna do?[ Everett
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