Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Flop II

[KneeCo]

The fact that it's a mini raise does make me a little uncomfortable. that being said, I think Hero's bet of half the pot may seem like a pure continuation/position bet to some, so perhaps the villain suspects any raise will be good to pick it up right here but doesn't want to lose too many chips if he's wrong about that (not saying that's a good approach, just saying that may be what's going through his head).

In any case, his range for making this move is still pretty wide, ranging from TT-AA (3 of 5 of which are actually ahead of our AK), AK, AQ, AJ, AT (none of which beat us), and QT, JT, KQ (none of which beat us) and a straight bluff.

I said yesterday that if he raises I would re-raise, and I'll stick by that.

I now hold just over 2000 in chips and there's 1500 in the pot with a 300 raise to me. One might make a case for a call here, but if one of my 11 scare cards comes off (QJT) I may be put in a real pressure spot. I would rather keep the pressure on the villain.

I think I'm ahead and if I'm behind should have some outs to the full house, I push.

[A_PLUS]

As far as I am concerned, this is as good of an outcome as I could have expected. I am still pretty far ahead of the range that makes this raise.

I dont see a point to reraising here. There arent that many cards that are going to scare him into being passive on the turn. So, either he thinks his hand is good, or he doesnt.

When his hand is good, betting just gets the money in sooner (and it is going in).

When he is bluffing, reraising just assures us that we only win what is in the pot

When he has a good 2nd best hand, the turn doesn't scare him off enough that I dont want to give him another chance to take the lead here.

In a nutshell, by reraising now vs later, you are either going to be the same, or worse off.

Reraising is a weakly dominated action (for you game thoerists outr there)

I put him on a10-ak, aa-1010, q10, k10, kq, qj, j10. kj. I doubt he is folding to a push here. So I call his bet and be prepared to push if a q, j or 10 hits. If one does, it depends on how he plays the turn to decide how I want to play it.

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Reraising is a weakly dominated action (for you game thoerists outr there)

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Even though I have a math background, I haven't studied game theory. Can you provide some additional insight on this? Tks

[DonHansen]

I thought maybe it could be interesting for the sharks to see how an amateur view this. Would make it easier for you to gobble up a fish the next time around [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] So here's from a guy with nothing more than seven (though intence) months of hold'em under his belt:

1. The mini-raise is a probe-bet with a weak A. I would call.

2. What range of cards would I put him on?

The amateur would rule out the top two pocketpair. I hold an A and a K myself, there's two of those on the board, so it's a very unlikely that he holds AA or KK. QQ he would've reraised preflop and especially JJ. He might have AK, AQ or AJ. I doubt he would call the preflop raise without an A or a PP in his hand. Ho could have called with TT though, but unlikely I feel.

3. As the amateur I would put myself on the best hand here, and I would like to get the other guys' chips. I would bet raise.

4. I think a raise of about 1/2 of the pot would be a good play, both to disguise my own hand but also to gain some info.

5. If he re-raises I would call. I most likely have a better or the same hand. So I would call any bet, including an all-in.

6. If he calls my bet and a T, J or Q falls on the turn I would have to think for a moment. T could make him a set if he holds TT or a straight if he holds AQ. A J would make full boat if he holds AJ. If he bets I figure I have four outs to full boat myself, one ace and three kings. A call would be simply a matter of pot-odds. If a blank falls on the turn and he checks I'll bet the pot to pick up the chips.


Fish-thinking.


D.

[Rduke55]

I like a call here with a plan of pushing the turn unless we fill up or a Q or T comes. I agree with who said WA/WB
Looks like he's trying to get information. I still like our hand. Why not let him take control of the hand and bet into us?

[A_PLUS]

I see adanthar's point. But I think 25% is a small enough risk. I also don't think you see a check-raise, check-turn here very often, without one of the 11 cards coming.

The min CR, means he is either trying to get some value from what he thinks is the best hand, or is bluffing that line.

Our call, doesnt tell him he is beat, we are getting 5-1 with position on the call. I see either type of the BB (bluffer or value better), leading out on 75% of the turn cards. The only situation where I dont see him leading the turn, is when he gives up on a bluff, in which case, he was done on the flop anyway.

[schwza]

his range is fairly wide. it includes hands like Ax, and also pair+gutshots like KT, all the way up the nuts.

pretty easy call here, imo. pushing lets him fold Ax, which sucks. if we call we have ~1730 left in a 1800 pot, so if he bets the turn (which he usually will) he'll either get a-i or lose enough of his stack that i'd be happy.

if he bets any turn, we jam. it sucks if it's a Q/T, but there are still enough hands that he bets - either thinking he's ahead or thinking he caught the perfect scare card to continue his bluff that we want to get the chips in. and we have 4 scoop outs and 3 chop (if he has a straight).

if he checks the turn on a blank, then it's a decision. i think betting 800 is best, but i could be convinced checking is better. if he checks a Q/T, check behind and call any river.

edit: ugh, thought we were oop. fixed now. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[jedinite]

Well the flop action went just like what we wanted - we made a small continuation-style bet that demonstrated some weakness, opening the door for our opponent to re-raise. That's basically what I make of his raise, even though its a min-raise I think he's communicating that he got a piece of the flop and he's better than the medium pocket pair we're representing.

We would have preferred a larger raise from our opponent of course, but we'll take what we can get.

With 1500 in the pot and 300 to call we can't fold here. We weren't intending to fold anyways, but lets just put that out there.

We've got two options: smooth call the raise or re-raise.

If we smooth call, we've got to dodge about 1/3rd the deck (scare cards and action killers combined). Its a more conservative play, but in the event that a blank hits we might get our opponent to bet in to us and be able to push the blank turn. This might be gigbet's approach here, considering his skill level differential he might want to let another card come off and reduce his potential variance on this hand.

However, I personally would take the opportunity to get more money in the pot here. We've got 1795 behind if we call the 300 raise with 1800 in the pot - pushing here isn't terrible but I don't think it maximizes the amount we can win. I think I re-raise to 1200 here, committing about half my stack yet still offering my opponent somewhat attractive odds to call if he's holding AT, AQ, AJ, etc.

His most likely hand ranges, based upon his preflop action and his re-raise: AT, AJ, KJ, AQ, KT, KQ, QT, TT, JJ, AK, KK, AA in roughly that order. If he's got AA or KK here i'm losing my stack regardless. If he got the perfect flop with QT there's also probably no way i'm getting out of this alive.

For the rest of the hand, of course we're hoping the turn is a pure blank (no Q, T, J). If it blanks, he checks and I'll probably push in my last ~1000. If the turn brings bad news, I'm content to check behind and call a small bet.

If the turn is a blank and he bets/pushes, all my money is going in the middle and I'm hoping he's on KJ.

[AceHiStation]

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Once again: 11 turn cards either kill our hand or our action. There is no possible way you can fold here, and very little possible way that anything better than AQ ever folds here.

If my goal were to get more chips out of exactly Ax/AQ/pair+draw, I'd call. I don't think that's my goal right now, though, because when any Broadway hits the turn you lose action from every hand you currently beat, anyway.

Because of that, I push right here and let KJ call. If I were a good enough hand reader to be 100% accurate to know whether to call or fold to a bet after a T turn/blank river, I'd be happier just calling. But I'm not there (yet) and a wrong decision is disastrous, so I'm making this one easy for myself.

PS: This may be different for a 109 than something like a Super, given that everyone in a 109 bought in directly and you cannot count on a donk call. If something like QJ *ever* calls a push in a 109, however, this is not close.

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I was going to reply to this, but you basically said everything I was thinking.