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#31
10-10-2005, 08:00 PM
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Re: What if you knew everyone\'s hole cards? (continued)
[ QUOTE ]
but heads up your opponent could just turn it into a crapshoot that you only win like 80% of the time.. so i think you could FT a tournament nearly every time.. and win it probably 80% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] You would have to make a series of catostrophic errors heads up to give up the overwealming chip lead and the fact that YOU KNOW HIS FREAKIN' CARDS!!! 
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#32
10-10-2005, 08:25 PM
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Re: What if you knew everyone\'s hole cards? (continued)
ok ok it was a bit stupid... but if somehow you were equal in chips going into heads up..and he knew his best chance was just to go all in every time.. the best you're going to find is a 80/20.
i'm just trying to save a little dignity.. it would take some massive sucking to lose heads up seeing their cards
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#33
10-10-2005, 09:25 PM
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Re: What if you knew everyone\'s hole cards? (continued)
Bob, one thing I'm not sure I mentioned and don't think anyone else has (but that I've thought about a bit) is this:
1. Assume you're a strategic player and can adjust to opponent playing styles (like many here can). 2. Not only do you know your opponent's cards (and folded cards), but you also know his soul because you'll know how he plays. It doesn't seem to me that people are considering the additional advantage conferred by knowing how your opponent will play. I think such an advantage could be huge. A highly observant opponent might even be able to combine playing style with a tell or two for even better value.
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#34
10-10-2005, 09:31 PM
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Re: What if you knew everyone\'s hole cards? (continued)
[ QUOTE ]
Bob, one thing I'm not sure I mentioned and don't think anyone else has (but that I've thought about a bit) is this: 1. Assume you're a strategic player and can adjust to opponent playing styles (like many here can). 2. Not only do you know your opponent's cards (and folded cards), but you also know his soul because you'll know how he plays. It doesn't seem to me that people are considering the additional advantage conferred by knowing how your opponent will play. I think such an advantage could be huge. A highly observant opponent might even be able to combine playing style with a tell or two for even better value. [/ QUOTE ] what a great point. ok, it's up from 99.9% to 99.99999999%. You would only lose if you got disqualified or chose to leave the tourney for some reason.
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#35
10-11-2005, 12:32 AM
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Re: What if you knew everyone\'s hole cards? (continued)
I think the very reason that it won't be close to 100 percent are the very answers you are seeing from some people in here about how to play. The arrogance that would come along with knowing the other players cards could lead you to invest too much of your stack trying to blow people off hands because they "can't call" when they actually have the better hand and may indeed call you or re-raise all in after you've made a very large bet.
That said, I think Bob way underestimates the advantage that seeing the other's hole cards gives you, and the sheer number of chips you can pick up in smaller and medium size pots with a very low risk to reward ratio. The other variable of course is that he postulates a not that good a player. I don't know how to factor for skill level, so I've basically assumed an actual good (not necessarily world class) player. And the win percentage for that guy has to be astonishingly high. I think the only risky area is the early parts of the tourneys, paticularly in you 1500 and 2500 dollar buy-in types of fields. And even there, I think your advantage is so big that it'd be an attrocious run of luck that kept you from acquiring the kind of stack that would make you nearly invulnerable. --Zetack
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#36
10-11-2005, 02:16 AM
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Re: What if you knew everyone\'s hole cards? (continued)
[ QUOTE ]
No matter how much you want to avoid it, over time, you will have to gamble with something like a 80/20 edge [/ QUOTE ] Completely wrong. Have you ever played a large buyin live tourney? Its not like you see on TV...
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#37
10-11-2005, 02:29 AM
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Re: What if you knew everyone\'s hole cards? (continued)
I think this is really insane. So often preflop your opponents have hands that simply cannot play with you. You will know EVERY single time this is the case, the entire tournament. You will pick up a lot of blinds doing that. Once the blinds get high and you see no one at the table has a hand thats remotely able to call you, you can just move allin and there is zero your opponents can do. I mean if you have 30x the BB and have 42o on the cutoff (or even UTG for that matter), but you can tell for sure your opponents cant call, you will make a huge amount of money by just moving allin in these spots, especially with antes and everything. Its very possible for no one to have a pair or to have AT or higher or KQ or higher. If you raise every single time this happens, its very unlikely that someone is going to call you out of spite with A8o for 20-50x the BB.
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#40
10-11-2005, 12:00 PM
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Re: What if you knew everyone\'s hole cards? (continued)
[ QUOTE ]
Have you ever played a large buyin live tourney? Its not like you see on TV... [/ QUOTE ] No I havent. So maybe when the structure is slow and the stacks are deep then yes , knowing the opponents hole cards would let you win %99 of the time. It still seems like %99 of the time is way too high though. And if the player tries too many risky manouvers like blowing people off their hand preflop eventually somebody will call in spite/desperation/resigning themselves to gambling with you since that is your only weakness. Then you are at the mercy of the odds.
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