I have a flush draw! (Stars $300 hand)

[ansky451]

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He may be active, but I doubt he is donkish enough to see your raise from MP, call it, then lean on you with the reraise if he has nothing.

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How is bluff-raising a likely weak CB donkish? I think its the opposite of donkish.

[fnurt]

You can call this with AK but you won't get rich doing it. Even when you're correct about it being a semibluff you're like a 55-45 dog, and often you will be a 75-25 dog or even worse. The pot is offering 2:1 odds so I'd imagine calling with ace high is marginal at best.

[locutus2002]

I think hero is chipspewing.

It's hard to believe that hero hit that flop hard, so the probe bet looks mostly like I have a draw or overs. Its unlikely that hero would price villain in with such a small bet if he had a T.

After villain raises giving you the incorrect odds to draw to the flush you need to put him on a range of hands. You are about 55% against overs and about a 1:2 dog against any pair 77++. Villain is priced in to call against all of them if you push.

I don't know how much hero has been playing, but its likely that his opening range is pretty wide (to include 56s), and less likely that hero has an overpair making a call more probable.

[DonT77]

"You can call this with AK but you won't get rich doing it. Even when you're correct about it being a semibluff you're like a 55-45 dog, and often you will be a 75-25 dog or even worse. The pot is offering 2:1 odds so I'd imagine calling with ace high is marginal at best."
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Exactly.

[bugstud]

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I think hero is chipspewing.

It's hard to believe that hero hit that flop hard, so the probe bet looks mostly like I have a draw or overs. Its unlikely that hero would price villain in with such a small bet if he had a T.

After villain raises giving you the incorrect odds to draw to the flush you need to put him on a range of hands. You are about 55% against overs and about a 1:2 dog against any pair 77++. Villain is priced in to call against all of them if you push.

I don't know how much hero has been playing, but its likely that his opening range is pretty wide (to include 56s), and less likely that hero has an overpair making a call more probable.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, I hope most of the people in this thread play against me sometime soon. The free chips will be awful handy.

[Exitonly]

which side were you on bugstud? i can't decide if you were disagreeing with the quote, or w/ the rest of the posters.

[adanthar]

Okay, it's a table full of TAGs and deep-ish stacks, with one active guy to your left, and you raise 65s in EMP. You're right, it's not horrible, but that's an interesting assumption (you saying they're TAGs and then assuming you can outplay them OOP.)

So you decide to outplay Active Boy and underbet the flop so you can 3 bet. Right there, when you, a TAG, underbet the flop into another thinking player, he knows you either have AA or absolutely nothing and a 3 bet won't change anything. If it was me you were playing against, I would beat you into the pot and be mildly pissed when I saw the flush draw because I was only at 67%.

Now bet the same 1000 you'd normally bet with anything. See how this hand changes when he raises you to 2500 and you still push?

[betgo]

If hero checkraised or check/called, it might look like a flush draw. Hero misrepresented his hand by raising preflop. The way hero played the flop, he continued to represent TT-AA, consistent with his preflop play. This made the play partcularly effective.

Maybe villain will call with JJ or ATs or something, but hero is OK as long as villain doesn't have a flush draw or a set.

Villain likely has overcards, an underpair, a suited connector, or something, and has totally missed the flop, in which case hero wins a big pot without a showdown.

[Lloyd]

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Okay, it's a table full of TAGs and deep-ish stacks, with one active guy to your left, and you raise 65s in EMP. You're right, it's not horrible, but that's an interesting assumption (you saying they're TAGs and then assuming you can outplay them OOP.)

So you decide to outplay Active Boy and underbet the flop so you can 3 bet. Right there, when you, a TAG, underbet the flop into another thinking player, he knows you either have AA or absolutely nothing and a 3 bet won't change anything. If it was me you were playing against, I would beat you into the pot and be mildly pissed when I saw the flush draw because I was only at 67%.

Now bet the same 1000 you'd normally bet with anything. See how this hand changes when he raises you to 2500 and you still push?

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I completely agree (and I believe I stated this above) that the weak bet and raise is the worst of the 3 options for exactly what you've said. My concern with betting 1000 is that we might be looking at a push. At the very least, if we push after a raise to 2500 or so he'd be getting very good odds. So what do you think of that line versus check-call, lead on the turn?

I think this is actually a fairly interesting hand because of the stack sizes.

[ansky451]

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My concern with betting 1000 is that we might be looking at a push.

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That was the main reason why I bet so small, so I could 3 bet with folding equity.