anyone see this? DN lays down KK preflop..

[TomHimself]

i think its always -Ev to lay down KK pf because you can never be 100% sure he has AA

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i think its always -Ev to lay down KK pf because you can never be 100% sure he has AA

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100% isn't the threshold

[TomHimself]

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i think its always -Ev to lay down KK pf because you can never be 100% sure he has AA

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100% isn't the threshold

[/ QUOTE ]pretty much has to be, because if the slightest chance he has AK, or QQ your a coinflip against that range like jordan oslommer said in earlier post

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i think its always -Ev to lay down KK pf because you can never be 100% sure he has AA

[/ QUOTE ]

100% isn't the threshold

[/ QUOTE ]pretty much has to be, because if the slightest chance he has AK, or QQ your a coinflip against that range like jordan oslommer said in earlier post

[/ QUOTE ]

Well the threshold is definitely less than 100%, that's not actually debateable, but I do think DN could learn a bit from the "math guys", since he says:

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I'd hate to say I'd do it again if I had to since it was the wrong move, but man, I was well over 90% sure I was looking at AA.

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[TomCollins]

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pot odds is not everything when u risk going out second hour of a major tourney. after the fold he still had 10K left

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Do you get extra money for making it 5 hours and busting?

[betgo]

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Yeah, of course it was a terrible fold- because the guy had QQ and not AA. But I kind of think DN has been fairly good at understanding these "typical players" throughout his career, considering that as a tournament specialist he faces so many each year. I give him credit for honestly writing about the hand, and he admitted he made a mistake. But my guess is that his reads against that kind of player is about 25x better than anyone on this board. And it also seems like he does pretty well most of the time at interpretting what people are saying to him correctly.

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DN has a reputation as one of the best touranment players at reads. I am not a top professional and my strength is not reads. However, when a player described as a novice goes allin, I am not folding KK. I may be more familiar with this type of player than DN. I understand he primarily plays very high buyin events.

[fnurt]

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i think its always -Ev to lay down KK pf because you can never be 100% sure he has AA

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100% isn't the threshold

[/ QUOTE ]pretty much has to be, because if the slightest chance he has AK, or QQ your a coinflip against that range like jordan oslommer said in earlier post

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Ok, let's say there's a 90% chance he has AA, and a 10% chance he has QQ. Coinflip, right?

[betgo]

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Ok, let's say there's a 90% chance he has AA, and a 10% chance he has QQ. Coinflip, right?

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With pot odds, there has to be atleast a 60% chance of AA to make folding EV+, assuming there is some chance of Ax, where KK is not as big a favorite as against QQ.

[whiskeytown]

maybe I'm a complete fish -

but if a guy goes all in and keeps telling me I can't beat his hand and I should fold, that is almost a given to me that he doesn't want a call -

and then again, a REAL pro would use that reverse tell to induce me to call...

RB

[Beavis68]

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maybe I'm a complete fish -

but if a guy goes all in and keeps telling me I can't beat his hand and I should fold, that is almost a given to me that he doesn't want a call -

and then again, a REAL pro would use that reverse tell to induce me to call...

RB

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When the pot is that big, and I have AA, there is always a part of me that just wants the guy to go away.


I think the story is great. Daniel cannot be 100% accurate, but his vibes have served him pretty well.