$10/20... Marginal 44 in MP... - Page 4

oreogod · #31 09-15-2005, 09:09 AM

Also, can u even fold this flop...u probably have enough implied odds to hit a set.

helpmeout · #32 09-15-2005, 09:10 AM

if only it was HU and you were both allin

You gotta consider that another player has 2 overcards to your pair a larger pair or even a Q. You also have to put more money into the pot when you are behind.

So if you are ahead then 2 players likely have 10 outs at worst against you. Thats if you are ahead.

Most of the time it'll be 12 outs so you are about 50/50 to get sucked out on by the river assuming they both call the turn. If you add 3 7s thats 15 outs.

Sometimes another 7 will appear and you lose to any overcard to your 4. If the turn is a card over your 4 then they have another 3 outs against you if neither paired. maybe up to 18 outs or more if the turn card makes a potential gutshot or OESD.

All in all its looking pretty bad.

TheMetetron · #33 09-15-2005, 09:10 AM

Let's use this pokerstove info...

So 65% of the time I'm ahead. I win 30% of these pots, so I win 19.5% of the time.

Damn, it's close.

I'm raising at 8.5:1 and if I win I'm likely getting 1 BB from the SB and nothing else from the BB most of the time, but I'm also putting in 1 more BB.

So pot will be 17 small bets + 1 more from SB + 1 more from BB + 2 more from the SB on the turn.

So I'm risking 2 Big Bets (sometimes less because I fold after getting 3-bet on the flop and getting no help on the turn, so let's say 1.8 Big Bets risked).

1.8 Big Bets risked to win 10.5 Big Bets with a 19.5% success rate. I break even with a pot that I've won of 9.2 Big Bets that aren't mine as of the flop.

This looks totally +EV now. Maybe, I'm a moron though and screwed something up.

TheMetetron · #34 09-15-2005, 09:14 AM

Even if you assume I always put in 2 Big Bets, it comes to break even when I win 10.2 Big Bets. Here, I'm winning 10.5 Big Bets.

I'm pretty sure this play is +EV now.

We'll just wash the chances I set up and extract more with the off chance CO or Button has a Q they want to get nasty with and screw up pokerstove.

oreogod · #35 09-15-2005, 09:17 AM

well I dont think u can fold anyway as u have implied odds to hit a set by just calling on the flop. Mix that with the times u are ahead...I think u have to stay in.

Your math looks solid, but Im pretty tired, so dunno. I think the move is +EV, marginal or not, its there.

EDIT: content.

TheMetetron · #36 09-15-2005, 09:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
well I dont think u can fold anyway as u have implied odds to hit a set by just calling on the flop.

Your math looks solid, but Im pretty tired, so dunno. I think the move is +EV, marginal or not, its there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, yeah, I think I have to call for set odds the more I think about it. I wasn't really thinking earlier when I said raise/fold.

But I think the +EV of a raise is better. The whole thing is pretty damn marginal though.

spamuell · #37 09-15-2005, 09:18 AM

Your math assumes that it is 3-handed but actually when you raise the pot is 5-handed and you have 2 loose opponents behind you, massively decreasing your equity.

TStoneMBD · #38 09-15-2005, 09:19 AM

did you calculate pokerstove as to say that the pfr will 3bet ATs and AJs along with other marginal hands? I don't think this will happen very often, so if you want to caculate how often villain will 3bet these hands youre better off dividing the number of combos by 2, or probably 3.

TheMetetron · #39 09-15-2005, 09:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Your math assumes that it is 3-handed but actually when you raise the pot is 5-handed and you have 2 loose opponents behind you, massively decreasing your equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have 2 opponents who are slighty loose. I still don't think they are calling here with any great frequency unless they already have me beat, and possibly not even then.

TheMetetron · #40 09-15-2005, 09:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
did you calculate pokerstove as to say that the pfr will 3bet ATs and AJs along with other marginal hands? I don't think this will happen very often, so if you want to caculate how often villain will 3bet these hands youre better off dividing the number of combos by 2, or probably 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I didn't pokerstove it. The other guy did. I was using his numbers. Villian really isn't 3-betting AK, AJ, or AT very often, even if he has a backdoor FD.

I guess the gist of this entire thread is that it is ridiculously close like I pretty much already knew. Sadly, that means I didn't learn much here, except poker is hard.