normal situation 215

[deathpotato]

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a) i ran several scenarios and reported the numbers for all of them, not just the tight ranges, as i explained, i know that those ranges were not great, but i did run several ranges.

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I realize this, I was referring to the fact that you thought the tighter, profitable ranges were more close to what could be expected, and was just saying that in my experience you will in general be getting called by too many hands for the play to be profitable on its own (without taking into account passing through the blinds).

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b) i think the assumption that the short stacks will call off their whole stacks at a 215 with 44 because your push "looks desperate" is completely off the wall retarded. not even the average 215 player is dumb enough to say "he's desperate, i know what i'll do, i'll hope to call into a coin flip with that guy for my whole stack. oh, hell with it, he must have a 2 in his hand, i'm way ahead.

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I think the main problem with assigning ranges like this is that we can't give a good representation of the amount of times people will call with certain hands. It's silly to say that a player will call with A9s and not with A8s in a particular situation, when what is governing his decision is his perception of your range. On the other hand, assigning probabilities to the likelihood of people calling with different hands is way too complicated to be practical. I'm not saying I personally would call you with 44, nor would the average 215 player, but I suspect you'd be far from surprised to get a call from 44, as we get much worse calls on a fairly frequent basis. I had a similar situation today when I was called by J2s on a 6BB push. I don't think my ranges are all that far off as an average of the tighter and looser calling ranges that you'll encounter. For what it's worth, if the other players can limit your pushing range to 22+,A2+,K4o+,K2s+,Q9o+,Q8s+,JTo,J9s+ then calling with 44 is marginally +EV for the two who are out of the blinds and clearly +EV for those who are in the blinds. So while my range may be a little on the loose side, I doubt that it's off the wall retarded.

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c) there's a clear, and large, difference between curtains' 99 and 88 example and your example of 44.

i think that the most realistic of the ranges that i ran (if i'm remembering what i ran earlier without looking now) is the big stacks with the loosey goose ranges and the small stacks fairly tight.

[/ QUOTE ]You are right, I think almost anyone will call you with 88 and not everyone by any means will call with 44. But getting called by 44 will happen, getting called by 55 will happen more often, 66 more often still. 33 will happen too, but less frequently, as will JTs. This all comes back to having to put hard ranges on soft situations, a lot of people will call with 44 only some of the time.

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d) look at my post above this one, where i talk about how costly folding through the blinds is going to be. i think that people like to talk about the ev of just folding the hand, but sometiems you hve to consider what the ev of being forced to fold the next several hands is going to be, especially when it is incredibly likely.

[/ QUOTE ]I'm actually going to try to run through some numbers regarding the EV damage taken by folding through the blinds given different stack sizes, as I haven't checked this out before. I certainly wouldn't be surprised to find that taking the blinds with a slightly bigger stack when you successfully steal makes up for the slight damage taken by pushing Q9 into even the loosish ranges I suggest.

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it had to be one of us.

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A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Also, T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I assume he was calling in hopes of splitting the blinds with you.