JT hand on 2/4 Party

[newhizzle]

why are you pink?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

i watched someone play this hand and i thought each street was pretty interesting.

i miscounted the pot in my original post on the flop call. it's actually 13.5-2 to call. with a gutshot to the nuts and a backdoor flush draw i think you have to call here.

note that the co did not 3-bet the flop, so a big hand from him doesn't seem likely, probably something like AK.

the main gripe i have against most people's posts is the insistence that the hero does not have the best hand on the turn a good % of the time. the button could have a wide range of hands here.

you guys know you wouldn't need a Q to raise this flop, and this guy wouldn't either. he could have a draw, he could have pocket nines or tens, A8, 98 just as easily as he could have a queen or (if very unlucky) T9.

if you understand that concept then you understand why a turn checkraise would make more sense, especially since that J gives AK a gutshot draw, making your two pair outs dirty if in fact you are behind the button.

i'm not saying its the greatest play in the world, and its largely based on a read on the button (which our hero didn't really have) but it certainly does make sense.

if i had said this was a tougher 10/20 game and that the button was slightly on the aggressive side would that make a difference?

the river is also interesting. if the villian did have a flush draw he's not calling a river bet obviously, but may bluff one if he is checked to (though given that hero checkraised the turn, i think villian's bluffing options are limited). so checking to induce a bluff doesn't seem likely, but i think value betting may have merit here especially if he has something like TT that he refuses to give up (as i've seen a lot of 2/4 players do). in a tougher type game i think checking this river is best.

so all in all,
calling the flop is probably the easiest street.
the checkraise on the turn is okay.
the river play is probably okay as well.

though none of the streets really make you jump for joy at the play, the thought process is a good one i think.

anyways hero bet and villian called with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for rivered two pair and our hero loses.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
calling the flop is probably the easiest street.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm really not a fan of the flop call Chris. Hero is getting immediate odds of 6.75:1 holding a gutshot and a backdoor flush draw and overcards to the middle card on the flop. His gutshot is dirty because of the presence of the flush draw, his backdoor flush draw is fine but his pair outs are dirty to the same flush draw and also subject him to redraws from AK. Being generous, we could say that Hero has five outs but even if Hero improves on the turn he still has to dodge [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s and maybe overcards if the CO doesn't drop out. The flop could be 3-bet and even capped cutting Hero's effective odds to a possible 5.5:1 or even 4.625:1. Hero's implied odds aren't that good. Whatever the case may be, these odds are just too short to justify a flop call.