Hand To Talk About

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Mike:

I think this is a mis-statement. We certainly don't defend the blinds with as many hands as some other authors propose.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Tyler:

You may want to carefully read the chapter of playing the fist two cards out of the blinds in HPFAP. I suspect it will change some of your thinking.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Gino:

You wrote:

Preflop, if you can be fairly sure that the limpers will call the raise

I think you can be 99.999% sure that will happen. It is extremely rare for someone to fold for one bet after putting in one bet.

You wrote:

The check-raise represents something like a spade flush, or just possibly a set or two pairs, and you get a denial of a flush by way of his calling your check-raise

Notice that I have played my hand just like a flush draw. That's also an important point to consider.

You wrote:

I can see how it would be worth one more bet to see if he's scared, and I'd defer to your judgment whether he'd lay down a pair of Queens for one big bet given your representation of a flush (or maybe lay down a pocket pair lower than Q's on the theory that the board K or Q must have hit you if you don't have the flush).

Given the size of the pot, he doesn't have to fold very often for my river bet to be correct. Thus if I've judged my opponent correctly, I should bet every time here.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Zeno:

I think this is a good question. I have argued for many years that in games like limit hold 'em where the bet can be relatively small when compared to the size of the pot, that a tight aggressive image is ideal. Couple that with proper tight aggressive play, and plays like this become possible.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Soft:

You could be right. My opponent might have only had ace high (of the appropriate suit). But with the king hitting on the end, that's fairly doubtful.

Also, some weak-tight players, especially if they think you play tight-well, can be quite creative in their laydowns. When you notice one of these, opportunities will sometimes arise.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi elysium:

I think that this is clearly playable before the flop. But I also agree that it is not a big money winner.

I also think that some players are very capable of folding AQ or AK here. Another possible hand for him is KQ with the king of spades. On the other hand, other more loose players are certainly not capable of those folds.

Your wrote:

the main problem that stands out in my opinion, is that this opponent may try to bluff raise the river.

Notice that I classified this player as fairly conservative. With that being the case, there is almost no chance that he will bluff raise on the river. Of course my judgement could be wrong.

You wrote:

now, to turn this into a definate bet out into him on the river, you would have to include some reasonable expectation that he will fold KQ and AQ. if he will, then i go along with betting out on the river. it's just heads up here mason, will he fold AQ or KQ? did you have a reasonable expectation of getting those hands out. very important. i say no possible way.

If I would have thought "no possible way" then I shouldn't have made the check raise semi-bluff on the turn.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Magic:

Let me put it this way. If this was not the type of opponent who could sometimes fold the AQ on the river, then my play of the hand is probably not correct.

Best wishes,
Mason

[elysium]

hi mason,
wow, i never considered that he may fold the AQ type hands heads up. this is very important.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi elysium:

When some players becoms convinced that they are against a flush, they can fold a lot of hands. In fact, if you're certain you're dead, you should fold even if your hand is very good. However, don't convince yourself that you are dead in in situations where you may not be.

Best wishes,
Mason

[magic_man]

In that case I am going to put him on AQ with the ace of spades, or AK (much less likely, IMO). A pocket pair doesn't make much sense to me here on the turn. Do you agree? Above you posted that he may also have KQ. Does he really believe you have the flush so sincerely that he would fold when his hand improves?

~Magic Man