Where will LT be ranked?

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
Last year was a bad year? Do you actually watch football or just rely on stats? (ignoring the fact that 1800 all purpose yards and 18tds in 15 games, is a "bad" season for a rb to you)

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a "bad" season because the guy got over 400 touches.

If a running back puts up a ton of rushing yards by stringing together a bunch of below average runs, he still has had a below average year. There is no amount of carries where being below average turns into being a good back.

[thatpfunk]

you don't read so good, do you?

[illini99]

From Pro Football Prospectus on Tomlinson

"Don't be deceived by the 17 touchdowns. San Diego somehow went 12-4 despite a subpar year from Tomlinson, who ran straight into two major historical trends. First, 30 different backs in NFL history have risen at least .5 yards per carry from one season to the next, with a minimum of 250 carries both years, and those backs on average drop by .75 yards per carry in year three. Second, running backs who go over 370 carries generally suffer a major injury or drop in yards per carry within two years. Newsflash: Overuse leads to injuries and, as Dennis Miller once noted, 'There is no such thing as a minor groin injury.' Tomlinson's likely rebound is one reason to believe the Chargers will not regress to 6-10."

They calculate that he was about 5% worse than an average back per play last year. However, the average back doesn't get 339 carries. Its important to remember that he was still valuable to San Diego even if he had a subpar year. They project him for about 2000 total yards with 15 TDs this year.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
you don't read so good, do you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I don't comprehend asinine arguments.

They put 8 in the box. OK. They put 8 in the box 2 years ago, that didn't seem to affect him, did it? How about 3 years ago?

Did they not put 8 in the box against Curtis Martin? Or Kevin Jones? Or Julius Jones? Or Shaun Alexander? Or Tiki Barber?

[thatpfunk]

I said, regardless of his statistics, which most people would consider excellent, he was an elite back.

Of all the backs you listed, the only one whose team did as well the Chargers was the Seahawks, and that was the only back you listed that I would consider "elite" like LT.

The effect that LT has on each game automatically jettisons him to elite status. But please, keep thinking that the NFL can be explained through your inane moneyball-type thinking. I am sure you can cite some complex equations that will "prove" to me the rest of his career, including how, uninjured, he will not reach 10k yards. [/smarmy sarcasm]

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
Of all the backs you listed, the only one whose team did as well the Chargers was the Seahawks,

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just factually incorrect, unless you don't know who Curtis Martin is.

[ QUOTE ]
The effect that LT has on each game automatically jettisons him to elite status.

[/ QUOTE ]

First you give him extra credit for being on a pathetic team, and then whenever the team gets good you give him credit because, despite his inferior stats, he had an "effect" on the game and makes him elite. Which is it?

Answer the question I posed in the previous post: why is it an excuse for LT's poor production that defensive coordinators were stacking the box? Weren't they stacking it the year before, when he rushed for over 5 yards a carry?

And why is it that the effect LT had on the game was only present last year, and not the years previous when Brees was considered a bust and the Chargers had no passing game?

[thatpfunk]

[ QUOTE ]

This is just factually incorrect, unless you don't know who Curtis Martin is.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Jets went 10-8, Chargers 12-5.
[ QUOTE ]

First you give him extra credit for being on a pathetic team

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you not? The Chargers of his first 3 seasons were beyond pathetic; he was the only option and everyone knew it.

[ QUOTE ]
then whenever the team gets good you give him credit because, despite his inferior stats, he had an "effect" on the game and makes him elite.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you implying that he did not have a dramatic effect on the Chargers last year? There were other reliable options on the team for the first time in his career and, naturally, the team did well. The Chargers obviously wouldn't have been close to the team they had been last year without. You also choose to ignore he sat out one game and was hampered by a groin injury in 5. It is generally ackowledged his role was as a decoy in those games therefore allowing others on the team to prosper.

[ QUOTE ]
Which is it?

[/ QUOTE ]
You have given no reason to believe that both can not be possible. His team sucked, he was the only option, yet he still played unbelievable. Last year, with other options, the team flourished. He was injured, sat out a game, and still produced. Can you please cite some examples of LT not coming through when he was needed?

[ QUOTE ]
And why is it that the effect LT had on the game was only present last year, and not the years previous when Brees was considered a bust and the Chargers had no passing game?

[/ QUOTE ]
Well gee, the maturity of Brees, and a couple guys named Gates and Keenan. It is a team sport. None of those three would have had their years without lt. [ QUOTE ]
why is it an excuse for LT's poor production that defensive coordinators were stacking the box?

[/ QUOTE ]
There are no excuses, it is amazing what he has done in spite of the defenses he has faced. Also, not to start another debate, but Marty's offenses have generally not produced high avg yard per rush backs.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
The Jets went 10-8, Chargers 12-5.

[/ QUOTE ]

And the Seahawks went 9-8.

[ QUOTE ]
Are you implying that he did not have a dramatic effect on the Chargers last year? There were other reliable options on the team for the first time in his career and, naturally, the team did well.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I'm just wondering what the hell does it have to do with Ladanian. Like I said: when the team sucks, he gets extra credit and when the team's good, he gets extra credit.

The team did not improve last year because of Ladanian and, in fact, the team improved last year despite Ladanian's dropoff. Despite him.

[ QUOTE ]
There are no excuses, it is amazing what he has done in spite of the defenses he has faced.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why, in your opinion, did Ladanian Tomlinson's rushing average about a yard and a half last year? Or does that even matter at all?

You keep ignoring the fact that Ladanian was nowhere near the back last year that he was in 2003 and 2002 and making excuses for his low average without acknowleding that it didn't seem to affect him two years ago.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, not to start another debate, but Marty's offenses have generally not produced high avg yard per rush backs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Case in point. What the hell does that have to do with anything? It did in 2003, why didn't it in 2004?

[thatpfunk]

Think about all the tiny variables that go into a football game. What are some of the possible reasons for LT's decline in avg?

More short yardage play calling situations due to a more successful passing game (increase in carries might suggest this as well)
Better field position, less long runs
A greater predictability of Marty's play calling after a season
The Chargers were ahead more often hence more time consuming dive-type plays that the defense would know to defend

There are countless variables that I am not considering at the moment.

I am curious: Which RBs do you think played a more important role in their teams success last season? Where does this factor into your definition of elite backs?

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
More short yardage play calling situations due to a more successful passing game (increase in carries might suggest this as well)

[/ QUOTE ]

It is true that he got carries in shorter yard situations than most backs - this can be seen on first down, where he's got the second-shortest yards needed for a first down on average. I still haven't figured out a way to say that, but lemme rephrase it. When Rudi Johnson was given the ball on first down, he averaged 9.89 yards to go for a first; Tomlinson averaged 9.42 right around McGahee and James (Edge ran for 4.6 yards/carry).

[ QUOTE ]
I am curious: Which RBs do you think played a more important role in their teams success last season? Where does this factor into your definition of elite backs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Most of them. The rushing attacks of the Jets (Martin/Jordan), Chiefs (Holmes/Johnson/Blaylock), Falcons (Vick/Duckett/Dunn), Ravens (Lewis/Taylor), Pats (Dillon/Faulk), Steelers (Bettis/Staley), Broncos (Droughns/Bell/Does it even matter who they play?) and Eagles (Levens/Westbrook).

Also, Tiki Barber, Edge, Rudi Johnson, and Shaun Alexander. Kevin Jones and Julius Jones busted out in the 2nd half of the season. After that you have guys that all start to look the same, like Ahman Green, Domanick Davis, and Willis McGahee.... and LT.