Question about SNGs and fluctuation

[citanul]

isura,

thanks for your detailed reply.

looking back at my post, i don't even know what i was thinking i was writing when i wrote up #2. like i said, clearly nap time.

citanul

[testaaja]

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isura,

thanks for your detailed reply.

looking back at my post, i don't even know what i was thinking i was writing when i wrote up #2. like i said, clearly nap time.

citanul

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Here is a link for you http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/ . You can find some neat stuff bout BJ over there. About card counting etc.

[Isura]

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looking back at my post, i don't even know what i was thinking i was writing when i wrote up #2. like i said, clearly nap time.

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Yeah, the whole riding streaks, martingale system type approaches have been tried before. And some people like Jerry Patterson, Gregory Manarino have tried to sell books and course packages promoting these non-mathematical approaches (they are an interesting read atleast).

Anything in print by Jerry Patterson, Ken Warren, or Gregory Mannarino is pretty worthless, but a fun read. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[tjh]

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50% of the time I like you. The other 50% I think you're a big dick.

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which time are we on right now?

citanul

edit; it's funny, because about 50% of the time i'm a nice guy, and 50% of the time i'm a big dick, but sometimes when i am one of those ways, i have to bluff the other way, just to mix it up. keeps them guessing. if your bluffing percentage isn't all that right, your opponents start to peg you pretty good, and that's no good.

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Wow...
Something is up... the big dick to nice guy ratio used be 90/10 ..

[Mr_J]

"By "some games" I assume you mean non-blackjack games?"

No I do mean blackjack. Some single deck games with favourable rules have a very small edge off just perfect basic strategy. Haven't played one of these, just remember hearing on BJ21 that they do exist.

Better to just play poker though [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[jon462]

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"By "some games" I assume you mean non-blackjack games?"

No I do mean blackjack. Some single deck games with favourable rules have a very small edge off just perfect basic strategy. Haven't played one of these, just remember hearing on BJ21 that they do exist.

Better to just play poker though [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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what favorable rules? Have their been casinos that offer 3:1 on blackjacks? any special rules I have seen (like spanish 21 or blackjack\3 card poker combo) are just extra sucker bets. Im not arguing with you that just sparked my curiousity.

[byronkincaid]

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playing at 6% will make you go insane. at any level. you could potentially break even over 2k+ sngs right? ugh. /endlife. holla

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Can you put me in your will for the $9K rakeback? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[rvg72]

I wrote this ROI simulation program:

Link to forum thread

You could use this to do some analysis on the numbers. If he was really a 15% ROI player then there is less than a 1 in 10,000 chance he would run at 6% or lower over 5,000 SNG's... Even a 9% ROI player would have only an 18% chance to run at 6% or lower over 5K... With that sample size chances are very high that he is a 5 to 7% ROI player.

4 tabling the $215's at 6% isn't too shabby is it? About $50/hr or so but there would be some big swings... Over 1000 SNG's he would likely (50%) have a 40 buyin or more drop at some point.

rvg

[Mr_J]

*only* an 18% chance if his EV is 9%?? That's still a reasonable chance to run significantly worse. Kind of surprising, then again the figures are low so 1% makes a large difference.

6% at the 215s is more like $90 an hr [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[rvg72]

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6% at the 215s is more like $90 an hr [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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Really? You get in 7 games an hour at the $215's? I figured 4 an hour if you're playing in sets and taking pee breaks is about right.