Fold the flop here?

[baronzeus]

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with the right flop your implied odds are huge here.

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If only the odds of the right flop were huge here.

The reasons for the flop fold are fairly obvious. Thanks though for yet another incredibly instructive post. Keep up with the instruction and sooner or later your bound to get one right start to finish.

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And thanks for another snotty post that doesn't add anything to the strategic discussion.

(perhaps you need to think a bit more about why the odds of a favourable flop don't have to be huge to make the flop call correct here...)

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Given that you've said you're essentially playing this for straight / 2pr value, I highly doubt your implied odds are high enough to make this call correct. Please show me some numbers to justify why you think you do.

Oh, and you're getting snotty responses because your posts in this thread all have a "condescending douchebag" tone, yet you haven't demonstrated why your contrary way of thinking is correct.

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Add up the odds of flopping a solid draw/2pair or better. Then consider the opponents. Then figure out how many bets you can make up for your single SB preflop.

The answer will surprise you.

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What are the odds of flopping JTx with no flush draw, QQx, or 99x, or Q9x?

[uw_madtown]

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I want you in my games, Chief. I'd run you over.

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YSSCKY.

I'm putting you on my ignore. I don't expect you to care.

Edited to add: I only mention it because I hope others will follow suit. Smug pricks who won't demonstrate why their contrary thinking is better than standard SS operating procedure aren't worth my time, nor anyone elses.

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I agree in retrospect. I think checking is the best play, but an argument could be made for betting here. The fact that it was almost certainly going to be raised and I would have to call another bet with no kicker convinced me not to bet. Remember, I am calling PF to flop something other than top pair--that's the real key to this hand. You have a situation where you are getting good odds to play a marginal hand preflop, but you must know why are playing that hand (flop big or go home).

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I disagree PF w/ you, but there's enough drama going on about that, so I'll move on to the flop.

If you bet, then you may be raised by a better hand, which you will have to call, b/c you have odds then. You could also have the best hand. You'll prolly have to call down, barring extra aggression later.

If you check, then it could be bet & raised before it gets to you, then you have a likely fold.

If you check, the PFR bets and it's just called to you, then you have to call right? If the turn's a blank, then I see nothing changing, and now you're just calling down with very little information. Maybe that's the right way to play it (is it?), but it makes for an uncomfortable situation.

That's how I see the hand developing, and I still don't know the best way to play it, but I'd go with betting out.

Edit: I'd call PF if suited.

[hicherbie]

i feel that betting, getting raised, and knocking out at least some of this field is key. i think a queen high flop is still good for your hand, esp with your position to a likely raiser. if the pot were smaller, or if you had no way to protect your hand, id advocate checking as well. but not making the field face two cold is a mistake i think. the only downside to this is if you cant let this hand go when taking additional heat.

without that problem, its time to invest a sb to try to take this pot.

[Jeff W]

Easy fold.

Edit: Fold pre flop also.

[hicherbie]

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hicherbie,

Calling preflop is not fine here at all. Don't be persuaded to think otherwise. Do a quick pokerstove considering the two coldcallers are 30% VPIP normally (meaning they're range isn't huge here) and you'll see you have MAYBE 15% preflop equity. But, that's assuming you always see the river. And obviously, a lot of times even when you flop a pair you aren't. Plus, you're out of position. Folding is right.

Chief

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if its a mistake, i just dont think its a huge one. thats all im saying. fwiw, id fold.

[uw_madtown]

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if its a mistake, its not a huge one. thats all im saying.

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Unlike some turn/river decisions where your EV is pretty close whether you call or fold, mistakes like this can cause you to make more mistakes as you continue on with the hand. Further, add up a lot of these little mistakes preflop. What began as a series of small, negligible decisions turns into chip hemorraging.

I understand your point, but it is worth discussing, and I wish Grouch had done the math and then explained why exactly he thinks his implied odds are so outstanding here.

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hicherbie,

Calling preflop is not fine here at all. Don't be persuaded to think otherwise. Do a quick pokerstove considering the two coldcallers are 30% VPIP normally (meaning they're range isn't huge here) and you'll see you have MAYBE 15% preflop equity. But, that's assuming you always see the river. And obviously, a lot of times even when you flop a pair you aren't. Plus, you're out of position. Folding is right.

Chief

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You have 16% equity and you are getting 7.5-1, without implied odds. 7.5-1 is 11.8%, which is what you would need to call on a pure equity scale.

So you have 4.3% more than you need to make the preflop call an even proposition, and you are getting very high implied odds (and little downside if you can let it go on the flop). This is giving the raiser a standard TAG range and the callers standard ranges (big cards, high suited connectors and suited aces, pairs).

I think some of you need to reread Nate's post on playing too tight. You can find it here and it has a preflop quiz. It should be clear from the results of that quiz that a call with Q9 getting 7.5-1 from the BB is totally standard (particularly with semi loose limpers who will pay you off and a TAG who can raise it up for you if you hit hard).

I posted this hand to help some of the weak-tightish posters here with their preflop thinking, and to help some of the loose callers with postflop thinking. I was trying to help, and it's too bad it turned into a flame war, but that seems to be the way of things here. People very rarely seem to be able to diagree about strategy without being jerks about it.

[CallMeIshmael]

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(perhaps you need to think a bit more about why the odds of a favourable flop don't have to be huge to make the flop call correct here...)

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Phoenix, AZ



Hmmm....

[CallMeIshmael]

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I want you in my games, Chief. I'd run you over.

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Chief is easily one of the best players in SS.