9/18 AA Hand - Page 4

Petteri · #31 08-13-2005, 04:06 AM

I do not see any room for value bet here. Every Jack or Queen(or flush) will win here. Cheap showdown is best option when you win max. 30 % times and are called or raised every time you are beaten.

The Dude · #32 08-13-2005, 05:30 AM

Betting and calling a raise, even if we stipulate that that is worse than betting and folding to a raise is better than check-folding or check-calling. You are simply missing WAY too many bets on this river when you check. There are a TON of worse hands that are going to call a bet, and your hand will be good quite a bit of the time here.

jason_t · #33 08-13-2005, 09:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Betting and calling a raise, even if we stipulate that that is worse than betting and folding to a raise is better than check-folding or check-calling. You are simply missing WAY too many bets on this river when you check. There are a TON of worse hands that are going to call a bet, and your hand will be good quite a bit of the time here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Drew: I like your thoughts here but what do you put the limper on?

onegymrat · #34 08-13-2005, 01:19 PM

Hi Jason,

Bet you hand. You will most likely NOT be raised if that's your thought. Neither of these ladies have flushes, of which they are deathly afraid. Even the MP with trip queens will only call, and the possibilites that she hold something like Q5s is very high. SB has AK. The Dude summed it up great.

Borno · #35 08-14-2005, 05:19 PM

I think I bet call here.. but bet/folding seems to be a very reasonable move too. You are getting the odds to call on a raise I would say. - I think somone may raise here with something less than you 6% of the time so you should be in the clear -- but its very hard to say. -- maybe not and bet/folding IS the better move.. anyway..

I've read the thread and I think SB very likely has AK as others have pointed out.

But what about MP - KQ, AJ, QJ, QT, 33 - any other good ideas?

This being the case I think you're in trouble if MP raises on the end.

Thoughts?

meep_42 · #36 08-14-2005, 09:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If it checks through and you win, you missed at least one bet from the SB. People who want to check need to reread river play in TOP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really wanted to find you at the Borg to thank you for this succict truism. It hadn't occured to me in just that way and really had me thinking about my river play and value betting for just about the entire drive up to AC.

-d

sfer · #37 08-14-2005, 09:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If it checks through and you win, you missed at least one bet from the SB. People who want to check need to reread river play in TOP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really wanted to find you at the Borg to thank you for this succict truism. It hadn't occured to me in just that way and really had me thinking about my river play and value betting for just about the entire drive up to AC.

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

Next time. Did you meet Mr. Dids et al?

meep_42 · #38 08-14-2005, 11:30 PM

Negative, I missed 'em all, though if dids was wearing a red button up, then i'm a dork for not saying hey.

Vegas in November i'll try not to be such a tool.
(I was playing 6/12 in the center table on Friday night in the red shirt in the 3 or 4 seat. Saturday during the day I was in the 10 seat in orange.)

-d

#39 08-15-2005, 12:14 AM

I really think that the MP is playing AQ. The queen is almost a given looking at the betting pattern - raise on the flop when he has top pair and then only calling when the K hits the board on the turn. If he had made any other second pair (if he had QT or KQ) you would have been raised on the turn. I think the A is a likely second card because only QJ is the other starting hand he would have called a capped pre-flop with. Either way I think that betting is the way to go - your bet on the turn may have given MP the impression that you have the flush and they will only call the bet - hoping to "get out cheap" as you are also trying to do.