67s, great flop but 2 bets to you?

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
You really think Hero's odds of being best right here right now is zero percent?

With only a LAG betting into him?

I call boshit.

-K

[/ QUOTE ]


First of all, stop being a confrontational ass.


Second of all, I'm saying there are 2 people to act behind us. Shillx is wrong in this case. Raising does not protect our hand. A raise that brings us 3 way vs a LAG and another person means a) the other person has an 8 or b) the other person has a flush draw. Either way, our equity here isn't very good.

Hero got lucky with his raise in this case. It went raise, cold call, cold call, call. What if someone with an 8 3bet this turn and the LAG capped it? With only 28% equity or so, possibly less if the LAG is capping with something reasonable (possibly beating you) you are losing EV with every bet you are putting in the pot.

So what exactly did you turn raise accomplish? You get VERY little value out of it, perhaps lost some value. You got VERY lucky that both coldcalled here. And then you got VERY lucky to hit that 8 on the river. It's unclear what everyone else is drawing to, or if they have a made straight, or whatnot, but with 13 outs, on rare occassions as low as 4 outs, you are not faring well with most rivers.

Another reason that raising is bad is because with 15BB in the pot, the second overcaller can call for his gutshot with only very slight -EV.

The BEST argument for raising here is that you can fold out a 3 on rare occasions, assuming no one has an 8. Unfortunately I haven't seen that argument made in this thread.

Calling here may only be marginally better than raising, but it is certainly better. If you think you are going to protect your hand by raising in this 13BB pot, you are incredibly wrong.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your hand is significantly worse on the turn than it was on the flop. Your equity dropped from 70% to 30% or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe 70 to 50ish, but no way in hell are you always behind here

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There's one easy way to find out if you're behind.

[Shillx]

What if everyone checks to us on the turn. Do you check behind?

If you don't, then you should be raising here imo for the same reasons why you should bet when checked too. When 3 people check to you with a 4-straight on board, the odds go way down that any of them actually have it. When the 1st two people check and a LAG (who raised the flop) bets, you aren't going to be up against a straight often enough to warrent slowing down.

And if someone has a straight, the only bad scenario is when we get 3-bet and have to play HU. We lose very little by playing 3 handed to the river with ~30% equity (when we know that we are up against it). The fraction of a bet that we lose on the turn will be more then made up for when we hit the boat or flush and get extra action because of it. And if you want to make the argument that we will sometimes lose to a bigger flush, then I say that the bigger draw is sucking a lot of air right now. He only has 5 outs instead of 9, and two of his "outs" come with huge negative implied odds. So yeah he might get something back from us on the river, but we are getting something from him now when he puts in all these bets drawing to 5 outs and some more for a chop.

Brad

[Kumubou]

The "I call boshit" line was in jest -- I disagree with your statement, but I mean no ill will. Have some emoticons to place with that statement to belately indiciate my joking around: [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
If someone behind you has an 8, this pot is getting capped and there is nothing we can do -- thereby making any turn decisions 100% moot. If this ends up HU against the LAG it probaby gets capped anyway, as I think we are ahead of his expected range.

I guess this comes down to two things:

a) How often do you think Hero is still best here.
b) How likely the people behind us will peel for one bet but not two.

Regarding A, I think it is much greater than 0%.

Regarding B... this is close(r). I lean torward raising for two reasons: any decent draw is staying around regardless of the number of bets required (flush draws), and really bad players are going to stick around because... well... that is what they do.

The people behind us having flush draws would not be the worst thing in the world (unless someone else already has the straight). They still need to draw out on us.

-K

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
What if everyone checks to us on the turn. Do you check behind?

If you don't, then you should be raising here imo for the same reasons why you should bet when checked too. When 3 people check to you with a 4-straight on board, the odds go way down that any of them actually have it. When the 1st two people check and a LAG (who raised the flop) bets, you aren't going to be up against a straight often enough to warrent slowing down.

And if someone has a straight, the only bad scenario is when we get 3-bet and have to play HU. We lose very little by playing 3 handed to the river with ~30% equity (when we know that we are up against it). The fraction of a bet that we lose on the turn will be more then made up for when we hit the boat or flush and get extra action because of it.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

With a LAG in the hand, why would the first two players bet the turn and not go for a check-raise? Since (from what I hear) 1/2 players suffer from major FPS, I'm sure they'd go for the check-raise on the turn. Whether or not I bet is dependent on the type of players at the table.


What hands have more than 3 outs against us if we are ahead? Flush draws (a rarity at that) only have 5 outs. Bigger straight draws only have 3 outs.

[Shillx]

With a LAG in the hand, why would the first two players bet the turn and not go for a check-raise?

Yeah, but we put in the last raise on the flop and the board has gotten super scary to anyone not holding a straight. If we have something like A7, are we really going to fire away on this board?

Since (from what I hear) 1/2 players suffer from major FPS, I'm sure they'd go for the check-raise on the turn.

Never played it so I wouldn't know either.

What hands have more than 3 outs against us if we are ahead?

Bigger flush draw. Pocket nines have a boatload. Any other overpair (8 or 7 outs) and some other hands like A5 could have as many as 5 outs.

Brad

[baronzeus]

I guess the point of my last post is that generally, we are far, far ahead (have our opponents drawing to 1-5 outs) or very behind (are drawing to 4-13 outs). If it is checked to me, it's questionable as to whether or not I bet here.

This has been a real interesting debate. I enjoy it.

[bottomset]

I want to see the results, and I highly doubt the 8helped us here .. though I guess we won't find out what the other 2had

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
I want to see the results, and I highly doubt the 8helped us here .. though I guess we won't find out what the other 2had

[/ QUOTE ]

He already posted that they split. The 8 certainly helped us here, by the way.

[britspin]

I'm replying blind to test myself because this is a hand I am intrigued by- so I'll blather through my thought process

Preflop is, standard.

On flop you have OESD, FL draw, TPNK. Wonderful! Raise is obviously right.

Oddities. UTG calling, MP raising, Blind calling three.
It doesn't look like a made straight from blind to me, because with a fl draw there you'd want to cap. Trips? OESD elsewhere? Overpair?

If MP is a LAG, I'm raising turn. Quite possible we're looking at OC's or 8's or 9's. The made hand could well be ahead and people will be scared of straight.

I'm looking out for the turn C/R though. Someone could have just made their gutshot, but as we've now got FH outs as well as Fl outs, that's OK.

If I do get CR'd on turn, I'm assuming a gutshot has hit and am going to severely discount strength of any rivered straight, so I'd only call down. If it's FL or FH, I'm pouring the money in.

Now I'm off to read wha the good people have to say!