Set of J's - Page 4

Post-Oak · #31 08-05-2005, 06:12 PM

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This bet is much scarier than a pot sized bet.

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I would ask that you explain your reasoning here.

Here is my reasoning. He is betting $30 into a $95 pot. This bet can mean many things.
1. he has the nuts
2. he wants you to fold, and realizes that you can interpret this small bet as "the nuts".
3. he wants to freeze you up into calling and giving him a great price on his draw to the nuts (the naked A of spade)
4. he has KK and suspects that you will raise on this scary flop with a wide range of holdings if he shows "weakness"
5. he could also have a hand like QsQx where he might feel like he is ahead or has outs

Now please erase from your mind the knowledge that he comes back over the top with a pot committing reraise of IceMan's raise.

Do you really think smooth calling $30 on a board where any spade will obviously screw you (or possibly kill your action) is a good idea?

My mean reason for raising is that you are probably ahead and he will still have no idea as to the true nature of your holding. He can't really narrow the range down beyond a flush, baby flush, trips, pair + draw, nut flush draw, or just a bluff on a scary board.

The bottom line is that you don't know why he is betting $30. If he is a good player, he can figure out that a $30 bet might look "scary" to you. He could be freezing you up, or trying to get you to fold. When he bets $30 he could be on a draw. He could be continuation betting a missed flop. He could be feeling you out with AK (no spades).

I think the fact that we "know" he reraises to $500 straight is clouding people's judgement. In other words, this sounds like "results" oriented thinking to me.

I would raise here with a decent range of semi-bluffs. I will also obviously raise here with made hands, including baby flushes. I have gotten it all in on monotone boards with baby flushes and been surprised to see how weak my opponent's hands were. They seem to assume you are on a semi-bluff, or they try to semi-bluff you.

You are ahead of a lot of hands which bet $30 here, and you can get some money out of his drawing hands or TPTK type hands. Of course, if a spade hits the turn, you can slow down (remember, the reraise to $500 is not a foregone conclusion).

I think the villain did play this hand like he has a monster, but that is because we know he reraised to $500. If that part were left out, I am sure there would be no one claiming a smooth call of $30 is fine.

If he does have KK, he took a risk by gambling that hero would reopen the betting action. Or he could have the nuts. I can't believe I am the one having to say this, but you can't always fear "monsters" under the bed.

Post-Oak · #32 08-05-2005, 06:17 PM

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of course, hindsight is 20/20,

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You don't say. If the post was:
Flop comes KJ4, all spades
He bets $30, my action?

Then we would not be getting this sudden nit like tendencies. TBG would reraise here with 49d.

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if he has a made flush you would be pretty much screwed getting all your money in trying to get a boat.

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With two cards to come, you are 1 in 3 to fill up. You are not exactly drawing dead.

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If he does have a made flush on the flop, why not call the 30 and see what the turn brings? If the turn pairs, you had a cheap draw to the nuts,

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The nuts??? These nits are suddenly quaking that they are up against KK.

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and if the turn is not a spade then you may have a better idea of where you are at, depending on whether he bets or checks.

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Where you are at could be that you missed a chance to extract money from a naked As, or that you failed to build the pot for the board pairing river.

TheWorstPlayer · #33 08-05-2005, 06:26 PM

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1. he has the nuts

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You don't want to raise.
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2. he wants you to fold, and realizes that you can interpret this small bet as "the nuts".

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This is ridiculous as no one is folding for $30 here. If he wanted you to fold, wouldn't he be much more likely to make a pot-sized bet? Yes, it can be 'second level' thinking, but how often do you really see this type of bet? And it doesn't address his holding, anyways. Are you saying he has just a stone cold bluff? Then you don't want to raise, either.
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3. he wants to freeze you up into calling and giving him a great price on his draw to the nuts (the naked A of spade)

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How often will the naked ace of spades come over the top of your raise? Fairly often? If you're going to fold if he does, you don't want to raise here, either.
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4. he has KK and suspects that you will raise on this scary flop with a wide range of holdings if he shows "weakness"

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You don't want to raise.
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5. he could also have a hand like QsQx where he might feel like he is ahead or has outs

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You probably want to raise in this case because he is unlikely to come over the top when he could be drawing dead and you want to charge him to draw to his flush. But this seems least likely. Wouldn't you expect a pot-sized bet from this holding at least most of the time?

mgsimpleton · #34 08-05-2005, 06:31 PM

i agree with post-oak.

whoa. i agree. with post-oak. i think given the range of hands you HAVE to raise the flop, as he so carefully and thoughtfully detailed =) (no not sarcasm) but given the reraise, it is a fold.

whoa actually, i think calling and waiting for blank turn to act might be smart too. damn ignore me i'm confused. i hate sets on monotone flops.

Big_Jim · #35 08-05-2005, 06:58 PM

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I think you are 10% of the time slightly ahead .

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If you're ahead, you're ahead by 2:1

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60% of the time behind to KK

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No way he has KK 60% of the time here. I suspect the nut flush more than KK. KK would bet larger to protect his hand.

This situation does look pretty grim, though. Not sure if I can find a fold, though, and if I don't fold, I push.

I hope to be looking at bottom set, or A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Kx often enough to make this profitable.

PAIR THE BOARD

Edit: read replies to ducks statement.

mgsimpleton · #36 08-05-2005, 07:14 PM

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I hope to be looking at bottom set often enough to make this profitable.

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"solid tight player opens in EP for $40"

how many solid tight players you know do this with 44. and if he has pair/flush draw combo he sure took a goofy line. hey it is possible but damned goofy, imho.

Big_Jim · #37 08-05-2005, 07:23 PM

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how many solid tight players you know do this with 44. and if he has pair/flush draw combo he sure took a goofy line. hey it is possible but damned goofy

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Yeah, you're right.

His hand range IS pretty narrow if he's tight/solid...

AxAs AsKx, KK, AsQs, AsJs, maybe QsQx

No other hand he can really have that you beat except a bluff.

Against a solid player with no reason to expect him to make a move, I guess it is a fold.

Post-Oak · #38 08-05-2005, 07:25 PM

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This is ridiculous as no one is folding for $30 here.

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Huh? What if hero's hand were 5d5h? What are you talking about?

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If he wanted you to fold, wouldn't he be much more likely to make a pot-sized bet? Yes, it can be 'second level' thinking, but how often do you really see this type of bet?

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It can be second level thinking. Maybe he is doing it as a continuation bet and doesn't want to risk much because of the scary board (and he knows it is scary for hero too).

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And it doesn't address his holding, anyways. Are you saying he has just a stone cold bluff? Then you don't want to raise, either.

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It could be a continuation bet with TsTd. Or maybe AhQs. You sure you want to give him a free card?

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How often will the naked ace of spades come over the top of your raise? Fairly often? If you're going to fold if he does, you don't want to raise here, either.

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Those are two decent sized "ifs".

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Wouldn't you expect a pot-sized bet from this holding at least most of the time?

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We're back to possible level 2 thinking again.

What if he had AhKh?

I think there are a lot of hands he could have when he bet $30.

Post-Oak · #39 08-05-2005, 07:33 PM

TWP, also remember that a spade could not only make your hand a loser, but, alternatively, kill your action.

It is probable that he will call your raise with TPTK, or a hand like red aces. He will think there is a great chance you are semi-bluffing him, or even using a pure bluff. He's not going to immediately assume that you have a flush or a set when you raise him on that scary board.

technologic · #40 08-05-2005, 07:36 PM

you're definitely getting implied to hit quads. call.