Win 7 SNGs in a row and make $1MM, haha

[viennagreen]

i did run the numbers for a 20% first place distribution when quadding and 25% for single tabling...

the results are 1:40000, if i'm not mistaken

(.20*.20*.20*.20)(.25*.25*.25)

and, as a guess, i would say a 20/15/15 distribution is around 60% ROI... at the very least, it's 50%

i think-- i might be having a brain fart or something... but it seems to me that your luckbox would have to be running at max power.

also--- how feasible is it to even play 4 tables at a time over at Noble? do tables fill very quickly?

oh-- and i'm not misunderstanding and thinking that you're onto a get-rick-quick kick.... i'm curious about the "potential" also.... just--- hard to justify making $16/hr (around $20 hr if you count the probability of hitting the five consecutive 1st or 2nd place $250 prize in there) on a very slim chance.

however--- if i was a 10s or 20s player on the Party skins, i would move over to Noble for this in a heartbeat.

[viennagreen]

using your 20/15/15 distribution for quadding and 25/20/15 distribution for single tabling, you have these chances for the extra incentives:

7 wins in a row, $100K = 1:40000
6 wins in a row, $75K = (.20*.20*.20*.20)(.25*.25)=
.0001= 1:10000
5 wins in a row, $25K = (.20*.20*.20*.20)(.25)=
.0004= 1:2500
5 1st or 2nds, $250 = (.35*.35*.35*.35)(.45)=
.00675= 1:148

i just think that even with a super fishy game, these distributions are optimistic.

[KramerTM]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Big Limpin...

Better yet. What if we got the top 10 best SnGers from 2+2 in the same room and idid it your way. Someone run the numbers on this. I'd say it would be about 1/50,000 at worst.

Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont get it [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]are you trying to be funny here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not trying to be funny. Trying to be rich.

Seriously though, I think this would be a fascinating experiment. Make a damn good film/book much like Bringing Down the House.

[Big Limpin']

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Big Limpin...

Better yet. What if we got the top 10 best SnGers from 2+2 in the same room and idid it your way. Someone run the numbers on this. I'd say it would be about 1/50,000 at worst.

Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont get it [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]are you trying to be funny here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not trying to be funny. Trying to be rich.

Seriously though, I think this would be a fascinating experiment. Make a damn good film/book much like Bringing Down the House.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yeah i DO get what you mean now....you meant to get 10 good players in the same physical room, all hovering over one comp, and making decisions by committe.
WHen i first read you post, i read it to mean have 10 pro SnGers all playing against each other at the same online table. Which would obviously be the hardest game ever at 10+1s [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] lol Thats why i thought you were making some kind of ironic joke that i didnt get

Yeah war-room decision making WOULD probably be the most edge possible. We would essentially play perfect poker, as we all have leaks, but in different areas, so any persons donk reccomendation would be voted down 9-1 or 8-2.

But man, having to split $1MM ten ways, what a buzz kill [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]....pfffff, $100k, thats only like a few step highers, small potatoes man.

BL' - Forming a Noble Poker "Ocean's Ten"

[Big Limpin']

[ QUOTE ]
using your 20/15/15 distribution for quadding and 25/20/15 distribution for single tabling, you have these chances for the extra incentives:

7 wins in a row, $100K = 1:40000
6 wins in a row, $75K = (.20*.20*.20*.20)(.25*.25)=
.0001= 1:10000
5 wins in a row, $25K = (.20*.20*.20*.20)(.25)=
.0004= 1:2500
5 1st or 2nds, $250 = (.35*.35*.35*.35)(.45)=
.00675= 1:148

i just think that even with a super fishy game, these distributions are optimistic.

[/ QUOTE ]

I suppose you are correct thats its still very unlikely. But also, these stats are, say, 40K:1 for winning 7 consecutive games starting from any arbitrary "game #1".

My brain could be playing tricks on me here, but wouldnt that # be divisible by the number of games you play? So if you played 1,000 of them, you ought to have (40,000)/(1,000) odds against. THats only 40:1? It seems too low, so please correct me.

Thinking another way, say you played 1,000 games, and are 20% first palce...you would expect to place 1st about 200 times. So from each of these 200 1st, you would be (0.2*0.2*0.2)*(0.25*0.25*0.25) = 0.00125 = 1:8000 to continue with 6 more firsts. (as opposed to 1:10k, as 3 of 6 are single tabling as opposed to 2 of 6 in your starting calc.)

So if i take 1:8000 odds, but do it 200 times....man, thats still only 1:40? Maybe those numbers *are* right.

If it took you a month to do 1000 games, thats $1,000,000/40 = $25k overlay per month.


Of course, these numbers all hinge on my assumption of P(1st)=0.20 when quadding, and P(1st) = 0.25 when single tabling, which may be overly optimistic.

But to mention it again, these ARE 10+1 games, at a very fishy site, and have timed blinds, so you get more hands ITM, and ought to have a resultant high P(1st) if you are indeed much better than average.

Im not even sure these numbers would be realistic if *I* were to play, but anyone think they would be reasonable for the absolute creme de la creme of the SnG world?

BL' - who kinda just started talking about this cause he thought it would make good discussion, but now may have talked himself into giving this a college try! [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[Big Limpin']

Regarding overomtimistic P(1st) estimates, lets see how downgraded results would affect the numbers.

How would 15$ ist when quadding, and 20% when single tabling be? As opposed to 20 and 25.


(0.15^4)*(0.20^3) = ~250,000:1.

thats quite a jump from 40,000:1 !

Doing 1000 games, that drops chance of a million from 40:1 to 250:1. bah [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Clearly theres is an inverse exponential relationship here. So i guess the overlay hinges vcery critically on what P(1st) you can get.

*sidenote: you would tailor your game to maximize P(1st) over maxROI.


Well, i think we have pretty much done the %'s do death now, can we steer this dicussion to what a obtainable max P(1st) whould be?

I am quite sure that you gould get higher P(1st) at noble 10+1 in relation to party 10+1 (timed blinds, 1k stacks)

SO, what could a 215 pro get at party? Anyone want to take a guess? Curtains? Dali? Rap? Gig? If you played jsut for first, with no regard for getting ITM 2nd/3rd, what do you think you could achieve quadding 10+1s at Party? 20%? And then what about 1-tabling them? 25%?

BL'

[Big Limpin']

Hell i cant stop posting here, im getting excited now! And im not even drinking yet.

OK, check this. lets say that there was no million for 7 deal. *JUST* the $75,000 for 6 in a row.

(0.2^4)*(0.25^2) = 10,000:1 (optimistic stats)
or
(0.15^4)*(0.2^2) = 50,000:1 (i feel this is even pessimistic?)

Lets split the difference and call it 20,000:1

Again, if you played 1000 a month, thats 20:1 against to win 75K. Overlay of about $3750 a month.

Now add in the cool million, say you will win your 7th game 25% of the time after scoring that 75k (you would for sure take 2 days off, study your game, sleep well, amybe get a few pros on MSN to give advice on hands...)

Call it 80:1 you would win a $925,000 more in any given month. Thats another $11,500 overlay a month.

So combine the two, and you are talking about a $15k a month overlay.

*standard disclaimer...yes guys, i *know* that this is not a fiscally responisble way to look at it if you pay for bills with poker as your job. Win next to nothing most every month (jsut whatever ROI you can pull for the 10+1s), and then maybe 2 years down the road the gods smile at you.

But still, it think its pretty cool overlay.

BL' Who think s he will play 100 of these next week to try to get an idea of what kind of P(1st) he can get...will report back.

[KramerTM]

I suppose it would have to be about the thrill of vistory in this case instead of the money. Not to mention the book deal will bring in about $1 million per person.

[gildwulf]

I'm in for the 10 if you'll have me...I can be Seth Green! My expertise is fish demolition and luckboxing the 50s Also, you could just do it over Skype or MSN to prevent collusion detection....

[Seth Money]

You have to remember that you have to be the 1st to do this as well. Any subsequent person that gets it done does not win