How to play this bottom set - Page 4

9cao · #31 07-20-2005, 06:24 PM

Wow, worse than I thought. Thanks for the numbers.

THATWACOKID · #32 07-20-2005, 07:11 PM

Ohh .. I see what you are saying now. I thought you meant a two outer has a 20 percent chance to catch up.

kagame · #33 07-20-2005, 07:57 PM

wtf are you talking about

set v overpair is over 90% to win

chuddo · #34 07-20-2005, 09:09 PM

posts blinds next time. and be clearer on hand info.

also this entire hands seems ridiculous and i furrow my brow at it.

-first villain blows the pot up after one limper with AA on the button?

-then BB calls this enormous raise OOP with KK?

bizarre, but i have seen stranger things, so fair enough.

and then we have our 10 high 2-flush and potential gutshot straight flop.

-so now KK checks, you check, and Villian who previously made an enormous raise preflop bets a bit more than half the pot? a bit odd.

-and now KK just flat calls this weak bet?

-now you get it in there for ~$650 more on top of a 90 dollar bet and a $300 dollar pot?

and now not only does AA call, but KK overcalls? ridiculous.
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all that said on this fugazi of a hand, i would have led right into the aces for $100.

gomberg · #35 07-20-2005, 09:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
wtf are you talking about

set v overpair is over 90% to win

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm talking about the case where you know you have a set vs. an overpair (that also may have a set on the flop). Try the experiment I described above. The numbers don't lie...

You have 22 vs. one or two opponents w/ hands JJ-AA. Assume the first card on the flop is a 2. Now what are the chances you win the hand after all 5 board cards are down.... that's what I was describing. So the chance of hitting a set / straight / flush is substantial for the overpair on the next 4 cards.