Did i make a mistake here? Orleans Open NL

[Smoothcall]

There are many good tournament players that are predictable. Dewey Tomko, Dan Harrington, David sklansky to name a few. I think there are different styles that both win. Just both styles have bigger swings. The tighter players will make more money finishes while the loose aggressives will bust out alot more but also win more.

Why is it a good call if i only do it with AK,QQ's, and JJ's? So he's either a huge dog or a coinflip. How can that make you think he should call? If you consider yourslef a goo player you should think i can get my money in better than a coinflip or big dog situation with my last 6k and fold the hand. If you can't see that than there may be a leak.

I only look at risk vs reward? No i looked at both. And i think i can get my money in better than big dog or coinflip with 1010's there.

Yes Phil takes his laydowns to a ridiculous extreme. But his overall idea of not getting his money in a bad or marginal situation is very correct. Me and phil only differ in the fact that i think 1010's and jj's are marginal situaitons. Were Phil thinks kk is marginal. Mike mattusow said it at the series as well. There are so many people willing to risk there tournament life on coinflips. Thats bad poker. You supposed to be looking for spots where you got the domination hand. Like having a bigger Ace or bigger pair than your opponent.

[SossMan]

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There are many good tournament players that are predictable. Dewey Tomko, Dan Harrington, David sklansky to name a few.

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I can almost gaurantee that these three players are much less predictable than you think.

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Why is it a good call if i only do it with AK,QQ's, and JJ's?

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If we give you a range of AK and JJ, then it's an easy call. Yes, I know that you are either a small favorite or big dog. But you can figure out why, right? C'mon, I bet you can figure it out. I have faith in you.


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I only look at risk vs reward? No i looked at both. And i think i can get my money in better than big dog or coinflip with 1010's there.


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You didn't look at the reward at all. You don't think having a huge stack getting near bubble time is going to be a huge advantage. No, I would rather hand around at a 20xBB stack. Going from 20x to 40x allows you to completely take advantage of +EV situations and force others to avoid +EV situations.

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Mike mattusow said it at the series as well. There are so many people willing to risk there tournament life on coinflips. Thats bad poker.

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I gaurantee that he wasn't talking about a situation where the big stack at the table had 20 big blinds.

[Smoothcall]

You keep using the word gaurantee. How do you know? How do you know they are not predictable? How do you know i am? You called me predictable from the description of one hand. Then gaurantee they are not. You make many bold statement when you have no clue what yout talking about.

I don't know what you want me to figure out. If you think you can get me to figure out that i need to call with 1010 then your sadly mistaken. I don't play that bad. You may, but not me. You cavalierly mention the fact that you know you will be a big dog or a coinflip. THAT IS VERY IMPORTANT! It is an incorrect call if i only raised JJ and Ak. In fact if my opponent turned Ak faceup and showed me its not an automatic call. I would call as i have a slight edge probably. But i don't like it and wish he didnt show me so i could muck my hand. Do you see why its a bad call now? C'mon you can figure it out. I have faith in you!

Sure it would be nice to be a big stack near the bubble. But i can still be a big stack at the bubble if i muck. But i can't be anything if i lose because i will be broke. I can find a better spot than coinflip or big dog with 6k in chips left at 150-300 blind level. This is only a call if you are not a good player. Than i would say take a shot if you win the hand you will go far. If your good i would say muck it. You can find better spots. So in your case you should probably call.

Another gaurantee that Mike Mattusow was tlkaing about a different situation. So are you saying you think mike would call? From his talk about not getting it in on coinflips i would say he would fold to a tight players all in there. And so would most good tournament players, if not all.

[sdplayerb]

matusow called raymer for a huge bet where at best he was a coinflip in 2004.
so you are quite mistaken there.

[SossMan]

I'm going to go ahead and ignore the obvious fallacies and misrepresentations and personal attacks and concentrate on the facts:

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It is an incorrect call if i only raised JJ and Ak. In fact if my opponent turned Ak faceup and showed me its not an automatic call. I would call as i have a slight edge probably. But i don't like it and wish he didnt show me so i could muck my hand. Do you see why its a bad call now?

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He is getting 1.43:1 on his call. That means that he only has to be a 42% favorite to make the call.

TT is a 55% favorite over AK.

Do you think that you are good enough to casually throw away t850 in positive equity? I highly doubt it.

I'm not even saying that I would call with TT there. It is a very read dependent situation. However, I was postulating that it's not all that hard to imagine a situation where he puts you on not wanting to see a flop (i.e. medium pair or AK/AQ) and makes the call. The predictability part was more of a metagame consideration. If you are consistantly overbetting hands that don't want to see a flop and making smaller raises w/ monsters, you will become easy to read, and therefore, easy to play against.

In your case, I would have made a raise of around t3500 to let him know that he's playing for his stack. It just looks better, since that would probably be how you would play AA/KK.

[SossMan]

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How do you know they are not predictable?

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Well, for one, I have read both of Harrington's books and he mentions numberous times that you need to vary your play so that you are not predictable.

That, and the three players that you mentioned are all successfull, and those two attributes are nearly mutually exclusive.


If you don't believe me, maybe you will believe Double Eagle when he recently said in a conversation that we were having about his progression as a tourney player:

"I must be getting better, since I've finally been getting my money in as an underdog"

[Smoothcall]

Please explain which hand you are referring too. Thats a little vague. If you are referring to the hand where he called with 97 for 2nd pair on the flop and Raymer Had aj diamonds for the nut flush draw that is a horrible example. As Mattusow doenst know raymer has the nut flush draw. All he suspected was greg was weak. He probably though greg had not even a flush draw and that he (mattusow) was bettewr than a coinflip situation. Like if greg just had Aj and no flush draw. If this is not the hand you are referring to please say whih you are referring.

[sdplayerb]

i was referring to that hand.
there was just about no hand he was a major favorite against.
and he said he was happy when he saw what greg had.

i can see your side too. but if you think he is super tight, you are incredibly mistaken.

[Smoothcall]

Which fallacies and misrepresentaions did i make? And you started the pewrsonal attackas by saying i was too predictable and saying things like. Can you see why? i have faith in you. And it was not an attack. I genuinely think you play has major leaks if you can't see why calling with 1010's there is not the best play. Even if i showed Ak it might be correct to fold because there are better spots to get your money in. Yes its positive ev if you see Ak and call. But its small positve Ev. What i'm saying is it is a better +ev play is to fold and get your 6k(which is still a big stack at 150-300 blinds) with a hand that stands to be a bigger favorite than slightly better than coinflip. If you don't agree on this then there is a leak.

Yes you might get an idea if i play AA and kk differently than all my other big hands. But i still will have big hands and you arent gonna wanna call any of my over the tops unless you got a very big hand. So what will you read? Ok i dont have AA or kk. But i could Have Aks,Ak,qq,jj,1010. Does this mean you want to call ym allin over the tops? I don't think so. If yopur a good player you will give me the respect And dump your hand unless you got AA,kk, and qq. Good players know this. You are having a problem understanding this. Not attacking just trying to explain to help you.

[sdplayerb]

if he read you for not wanting to get called, ie AK, it is quite a good call.

and 20x stacks are not big stacks.