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#31
07-15-2005, 10:12 AM
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Re: AQ River
[ QUOTE ]
I thinmk QJs and 67s are 2 of the more likely hands for his opponent. [/ QUOTE ] Given the pf action, I find it hard to believe that either of these holdings are reasonable for villain because (a) CDC said he is "active" not LAGgy, and (b) CDC believes that his image is weak-tightish. IMO a decent player is not going bonkers pf in this spot with either of those. 
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#32
07-15-2005, 10:45 AM
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Re: AQ River
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I thinmk QJs and 67s are 2 of the more likely hands for his opponent. [/ QUOTE ] Given the pf action, I find it hard to believe that either of these holdings are reasonable for villain because (a) CDC said he is "active" not LAGgy, and (b) CDC believes that his image is weak-tightish. IMO a decent player is not going bonkers pf in this spot with either of those. [/ QUOTE ] You are right, I completely forgot that it went 5 bets preflop. Haha.
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#33
07-15-2005, 10:48 AM
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Re: AQ River
It's my experience that very few poeple who fall under the category "active and decent", or anyone for that matter, are going to 4 bet with these types of hands, or anything but "real" hands after someone limp reraises them unless the limp reraiser is a maniac.
I recognize it as a possibility but just don't think it happens as often as you let on in your post. After the previous action I'm giving the opponent credit for a hand. On the river theres 6 KK's 1 QQ's 3 JJ's 8 AK's (but only 1 As Ks) and 3 AA. I put As Ks and AA at pretty small probabilities of him having them on the river, and QQ, JJ together, though only 4 to 6 KK's, are more likely than KK given the turn 3 bet. Unless I know more about this player I don't put him on having another hand more than 10% of the time. Looks like a check call on the river to me. Most of the focus has been on the river but I'm really interested in preflop. Did you have a specific plan in mind when 5 betting, or was it one of those impromtu lets see what happens if i do this type of things. Unless I decided to try something new I would have just called the 4 bet since then you'll usually get more from him postflop if hes getting frisky with mediocre hand and by 5 betting you are making the pot so big that its gonna be tough for him to laydown AK unimpoved which seems to be the main benefit of 5 betting.
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#34
07-15-2005, 10:51 AM
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Re: AQ River
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I thinmk QJs and 67s are 2 of the more likely hands for his opponent. [/ QUOTE ] Given the pf action, I find it hard to believe that either of these holdings are reasonable for villain because (a) CDC said he is "active" not LAGgy, and (b) CDC believes that his image is weak-tightish. IMO a decent player is not going bonkers pf in this spot with either of those. [/ QUOTE ] You are right, I completely forgot that it went 5 bets preflop. Haha. [/ QUOTE ] actually, I was wrong. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] I play bad.
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#37
07-15-2005, 01:11 PM
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Re: AQ River
My first response is to bet / call a raise. I am trying to put him on a hand and the range I come up with is KK, AQ (probably both [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]), QQ, JJ, AA too maybe. I don't see him 4 betting preflop with something like KQ, QJ, or 66/77. So 6 KK, 1QQ, 1AA, 3JJ, the AQ hans are a wash. Maybe he even has A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] if he is really aggressive. What does he put you on? AA/KK/QQ/AK [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]or [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] probably. I don't think he bets KK in this spot, but may call with it. I think he bets but won't raise with JJ, but maybe he will. I don't think I can lay down if I bet and am raised since there is a chance he views me as weak tight enough to make a play here, and I am weak human who will rationalize to call with top two in a huge pot. (Who knows, maybe he even has something like T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and would raise the river in desperation.)
Yeah, I probably fire and pay off a raise, though I doubt you get raised very often.
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#38
07-15-2005, 01:46 PM
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Re: AQ River
You're joking, no?
If he bets this river and gets raised he's probably good less than 5% of the time. He 5 bets preflop and then leads the river following a turn 3bet when the ace falls and there are 3 broadways cards on board and you think what worse hands are raising him and calling a 3bet? If he bets the river and gets raised I'd put his opponent on AAA or the straight.
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#40
07-15-2005, 03:15 PM
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Re: AQ River
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] this looks like JJ but i still bet and call a raise [/ QUOTE ] FWIW, i think bet-calling is the worst line to take. [/ QUOTE ] I'm wondering why, exactly. I haven't read the results yet, but here are the likely scenarios. Villian checks behind w/ KK=bad for us Villian checks behind w/ QJ=bad for us Villian bets AK of Spades=good for us (but we can't c/r after all that strength). Villian bets QQ, JJ or AA (and we call). Bet/calling will get a call from all the hands he would check behind (except maybe KK, player depenant). We might get raised by AK of spades (if he's crazy), or an insanely paid AJ/AQ. We're definately getting raised by QQ, JJ or AA (unless he sees monsters under the bed). Don't you think the single bet we gain from hands that would have checked, and potentianlly the 2 bets we gain from hands we beat, out weigh the risk of being forced to pay off a set? I honestly don't know, but I'd hate to not get at least one bet in on this river when I have the best hand. lf
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