what to do with AK here?

[Josh W]

Even IF he has AA or JJ, I still have 13 outs. If donk comes along, it (my turn threebet) is really close to EV neutral.

I agree that in most instances, "hero" won't muck AK. I think in this instance, with our history, with my hours and hours of sane postflop play, with me only checkraising him once in history (with KK on a rag flop), I think that he'll fold AK over 50% of the time. If donk calls my turn threebet, I think he'll fold AK over 80% of the time.

Remember, I said "***I*** think ***HE***"...not all people in all instances.

8 BB EV may be a small overestimation. 4 BB would be an underestimation. It's been a wacky day. I will do no more estimations!

Josh

[Speed Racer]

I am hero in this post.

I usually don’t post anything on strategy--most of the time you give away too much information about how you think and players use against you. This is especially true in L.A. where when the limits get above a certain level you are playing against the same small universe of players everyday.

This actually wouldn’t be so bad, except you never know which players are reading RGP and 2+2 so when they are using your posts against you, you don’t know they are doing it which makes the whole problem even more of a complicated mess.

I respond here, in honor of Rick Nebelio--to pay for some of the juicy gossip he has given me over the years.

One thing that wasn’t mentioned in the post, was that Josh had been playing at the table several hours. When I sat down, Josh had $4,000-$5,000 in chips and had ground his way down to about than two racks. I think he had already made it obvious he was leaving soon by talking to someone he was going to meet on his cell phone.

The second thing that wasn’t mentioned in the original post was that Josh was taking a beating defending his blinds. This was not necessarily due to poor play, IMHO he is an excellent blind defender, but more a result of bad combinations of cards being dealt to the stealer/defender and statistically unlikely and bad for Josh flops.

The third thing that wasn’t mentioned in the original post was that Josh and I had played in the same game several times over the last few weeks, so I had a chance to “figure out how he plays.”

The final thing mentioned in the original post but not really given much significance is that this hand was played in a Los Angeles brown chip game. These games are not the Las Vegas rock gardens with 9 iron assed locals taking turns gunning down the drunken tourist by folding everything pre-flop except big pocket pairs and ace-big---knowing the answer to the Feeney AQ test is not worth much in these games. The values for playing hands, raising hands, 3-betting hands, and calling raises are much lower than assumed in the “poker literature” and the various poker newsgroups.

The truth about how this hand came down is that I had (they probably won’t be available after this post unfortunately) some pretty reliable tells on Josh—one of the reasons he was getting beaten defending his blinds.

The check raise, the fact that he is a 2+2’er, and his tells made me almost certain that he was on some kind of draw on the flop. If I had to guess at the time I would have said 80% of the time a flush draw and 20% of the time a straight draw-- a 2+2’er would not be pumping a multi-way pot with polluted outs.

If you count the combinations of flush draws add the straight draws and then look at the combinations of straight and flush draws (superdraws) you can see that Josh’s actual holding was statistically improbable and, therefore, very well disguised.

On the flop, with “Donk” in the hand, it’s a best hand (me) and best draw (Josh) vacuuming Donk’s chips here. Raising and re-raising is creating positive equity for Josh and I, the only question is who’s gets to realize that equity.

On the turn, the raise is automatic. No draws have completed. I am the big favorite here. Donk has a 2-5 outer. If anyone wants to help me pump the pot here I welcome it.

Josh is incorrect that I would ever fold to a 3-bet here. He has read too many 2+2 books. Example of 2+2 style thinking: “I don’t play many hands, so I have a tight image, so when I re-raise everyone must realize I have the nuts so I can use this “table image” to occasionally steal a big pot and get back the hundreds of bets I gave up folding the best hand on the flop and turn with unimproved big cards, 2nd and 3rd pair, and pocket pairs under the highest flop card when I was bet into or raised by better players on the flop or turn.”

I have a L.A. bred frequency distribution programmed into my head of the hands that certain types of players will 3-bet the turn with and the area under the hands that could have AK beat on that frequency distribution at this point is not large enough to make folding in this pot against this player an option.

From watching Josh in previous games, knowing he plays 2+2 style, and knowing that he is faced with leaving the game stuck, I would never lay down to a 3-bet on the turn with that board.

On the river, I’m pretty certain that Josh has the flush but with the money in the pot the call is automatic. Josh could have gotten another big bet out of me by check-raising the river.

Even if the river was a brick, I am calling any bet and betting if it is checked to me. With the money in the pot calling a bet is automatic and betting is way positive EV move.

FTOP, I played every street correctly---generating every last dollar of EV out my hand, but, alas, there was no happy ending for the “hero” of this hand.


Speedy

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
I respond here, in honor of Rick Nebelio--to pay for some of the juicy gossip he has given me over the years.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's "Nebiolo", although I suspect you typed this deliberately to get inside my head. And we both know I'm plus EV in the gossip ratio and don't worry, I won't elaborate [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Anyway, you deserved to know you were the subject of a hand on 2+2. I'm sure mike l., Josh W., and others are interested in your thoughts.


[ QUOTE ]
The truth about how this hand came down is that I had (they probably won't be available after this post unfortunately) some pretty reliable tells on Josh one of the reasons he was getting beaten defending his blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

From what I'm experienced Josh is a good guy and deserves a break. Revealing this is plus EV for you as a humaritarian. OTOH, he could have no tells (other than the "cell phone I gotta go soon" tell) and you are trying to get inside his head [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img].

You should spend more time here. This site is a bit unweildly (NPA Ed Miller is working on it) but just about everything that matters in poker is posted or linked to somewhere on these forums.

BTW, there is no such thing as "2+2 style thinking", or at least a standard style.

~ Rick

[brick]

Very interesting post. Thanks for stopping by.

[mike l.]

your whole post is so great. i was in favor of the raise on the turn. my thinking went like this: expert players raise and reraise until completely convinced there is a reason to stop doing so. then they just call. i do think calling a 3 bet on the turn and the river bet that would follow is -EV but because the pot is so big it's only slightly so.

there is one thing i think youre wrong about:

"These games are not the Las Vegas rock gardens with 9 iron assed locals taking turns gunning down the drunken tourist by folding everything pre-flop except big pocket pairs and ace-big---"

it's not like that anymore very often from what ive seen on trips there in the past 3 years. in general the games there are much more like typical LA games than they were before. they are still a bit more weak tight, but there is far more erratic, unpredictable, awful play from locals and tourists alike.

anyway, ni han. rick seems to be under the impression you mix it up a lot with weird hands but the times i played with you at hp and commerce you tended to play very tight/normal/solid.

[mike l.]

"BTW, there is no such thing as "2+2 style thinking", or at least a standard style."

or if there is id be fascinated to hear how it varies much from a professional mid limit LA player's strategy.