Scare card gets there - That's a good thing right?

[Lestat]

I'm not an advocate of folding big pots, but if he can raise me with a worse hand here, he deserves to win it... I think I mentioned that the bb was not a bad player. Against some of the more loosely screwed down opponents that you sometimes find on Party, I'd have felt obligated to call a 3rd bet. But then, I wouldn't have check/raised such a player.

[Lestat]

Thanks DpR-

This is some of the discussion I was looking for.

So you don't even like betting the river, is that right? Preferring to check/call? I see your point. You will never lose 2 bets and can expect to make 1 more almost always when ahead.

Maybe I got greedy. My read was pretty strong he had a (worse) 5 and I was only concerened with maximizing. But I certainly could've been wrong about his hand too. So the number you came up with is that I have to be ahead 2/3's here? I don't know if I was that sure or not. Even now I'm too lazy to do the proper math on this. I'm embarrassed to admit that I pretty much rely on feel in the heat of battle.

[DpR]

Yeah my quick math in my head suggest a check call. When comparing c/r vs c/c: if he was worse hand you gain 1 bet; when he has straight you lose 1 more bet; when he has flush or boat you lose 2 more bets (I think he three bets the flush, but I also think there is almost zero chance he has a flush here so it doesnt matter). Ignoring the straight you have to be ahead 2/3 to break even between these two options. So including the straight it is a little less than that. If you can fold to a 3 bet then you only need to be ahead 1/2 - I just don't think many people are doing that here with this big pot (and it is total distaster if he can 3 bet w/o being ahead).

Now to compare c/c to betting out: I figure he just calls your bet with a worse hand or a straight, and raises you with flush or boat. You pretty much gain nothing here by betting out since get the same when ahead and it is worse when behind. (we've already assumed he is not checking behind with worse hands, otherwise the c/r case looks horrible).

So in summary, I think check/call is the right play. But if you think you are ahead almost 2/3 of the time then you played it right.

[pokerhooker]

My original post suggested a check call on the river, too.

Here is some quick math with what I consider the hands that would be congruent with his flop and turn raises:

Hands that will 3 bet you when you check-raise:
AA = 3
A5 = 3
T5 = 3
9 combinations x 3 bets

Hands that beat you that just call your check-raise:
33 = 3
53 = 3
42 = 16
Axc = 10
32 combinations x 2 bets

Hands you beat that call the check-raise:
trip 5's = 32
32 combinations x 2 bets

Since the last two categories negate each other, the real loss is the 9/73 times he'll 3-bet you.

If you just check call, he's likely betting all these hands. Do you agree? If so, then again with the negation, you lose 1 bet instead of 3 bets 9/73 of the time and breakeven the rest of the time.

If you think he'll check behind trips, you're still not good often enough to make a bet or check-raise profitable, since you stand to lose that bet or 2 bets more than half the time.

Do you agree with this list?

There is a chance he was overplaying an off-suit big ace, but I didn't deem it very likely so I left it out of consideration.

[Mempho]

Good response. I see your point there. I would have to think that you think that the BB is capable of making this play. In other words, if he was weak-tight, you're not going to 3-bet here. If he's got a little play, however, and is capable of restealing or raising an overpair to the middle pair, you 3-bet for those reasons. He has to have A-anything or better (which we don't know, because his hand is random) for your play to be wrong. Let's face it, his flop raise screams, "I want protection."

You also say the UTG limper was pretty bad, meaning that he limps in a lot? Chances are, then, that he doesn't hold an A himself. If he was a low VPIP player, would you not have to be concerned about the bullet up there? You might have to then be concerned in that case about hands that he's trying to get multiway like A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I realize that the standard play with this hand would be to raise in this spot, but limping also has some merit.

[mach3]

Interesting hand. I think you can narrow his hands down on the turn. It's not likely he is pushing an Ax club draw that hard. My thoughts would have been 33 or a 5. I like the river raise, but would likely fold to a 3 bet.